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Answer: Not by a large margin.
Let's take a look at the 5G infrastructure that the market is more concerned about. Communication infrastructure accounts for 30% of the industry's demand, and the demand for optical fiber and cable for 5G base stations is mainly at the access layer
Specifically, since there is little difference between the coverage of 5G macrostations and 4G macrostations in the 2.6G and 3.5G bands, there is no need to replace the fiber optic cables here
Existing fiber optic cables can be reused in the co-site co-construction method - this is the fundamental reason why 5G does not bring a lot of demand to fiber optic cables.
According to the calculation of Guojin Securities, the maximum demand for new 5G base station access fiber optic cables and access backbone fiber optic cables is about 250 million core kilometers, corresponding to the 10-year construction period of previous communication iterations, the average annual demand is 25 million core kilometers, equivalent to 7.14% of the total domestic forecast demand of 350 million core kilometers in 2018.
The data shows that for the field of optical cables, the new infrastructure demand for 5G is actually limited.
In addition, there are some technical uncertainties to consider – mmWave
According to part of the information in an interview with the media on January 17, 2019, Ren Zhengfei, the founder of Huawei, said: In the future, our 5G base station and microwave will be integrated, and the base station can be backhauled with microwave ultra-wideband without optical fiber
There is a lot of debate about whether 5G can replace fiber broadband - those who support the "substitution theory" believe that 5G has a smaller coverage of a single station
Therefore, in order to increase the coverage effect and reduce the construction cost of the base station as much as possible, 5G enhances, amplifies and aggregates the signal to improve the signal coverage effect
According to the access capacity of 100 billion capacity terminal equipment of the 5G network, it can meet the needs of mobile phones to access the 5G network.
The frequency of millimeter wave is 30 GHz to 300 GHz, and the corresponding wavelength is 10 mm to 1 mm.
mmWave has enough bandwidth to meet the increasing traffic demands of the future
From a theoretical point of view, millimeter-wave base stations are better than optical fibers in terms of construction cost and transmission bandwidth.
But that doesn't mean mmWave technology will replace fiber on a large scale right away. The main reason is stability
Millimeter waves are mainly affected by oxygen, humidity, fog, and rain in atmospheric propagation. In high temperature and high humidity environments, the signal can be attenuated by half (3dB/km) within 1 km
In addition, millimeter waves can also be affected by blocking, not only by buildings, but also by the human body, and even when holding a mobile phone
The speed of light propagation of the glass filament in the fiber broadband can be seen as nearly infinite speed and stable
Seeing this, we need to clarify an important fundamental detail: the 5G concept that everyone likes to hype is actually not the main driving force for the growth of the field of optical fiber and cable.
So, among the major growth factors, in addition to the two medium-term (about 3 years) factors of fiber to the home and 5G infrastructure, are there any other long-term (within 10 years) growth drivers in the field of optical fiber and cable?
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market