Securities Times reporter Fan Luyuan
In the context of weak external demand and declining global exports, China's export trade in goods in 2023 will be better than expected, with a total export value of 23.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, achieving the goal of promoting stability and improving quality, and completing the seventh consecutive increase in annual export value.
In the past few years, in line with the trend of high-quality economic development, China's export structure has continued to be optimized, and private enterprises, the "new three" and the Belt and Road Initiative have become the strongest driving forces for export growth. In the face of new opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of national exports, the export competitiveness of major foreign trade cities has been differentiated, and the foreign trade pattern is undergoing a new round of reshuffle and reshaping.
Zhejiang jumped to second place
Anhui quickly counterattacked
China's exports have long shown a pattern of "strong in the east and weak in the west". In 2023, the total export value of the southeast coastal region will be 15.37 trillion yuan, contributing nearly two-thirds of the country's export value with its strong industrial base, developed commodity economy and convenient water and land transportation, and the export value of central and western provinces and cities will account for 10.03% and 9.57% of the country's export value respectively.
In the face of the slowdown in global trade in 2023, most regions will actively cultivate new momentum and open up new battlefields, which will form a strong support for maintaining the stability of exports. Among the 31 provincial-level administrative regions in Chinese mainland, 19 provinces and municipalities achieved positive export growth for the whole year.
Guangdong's annual exports reached 5.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, firmly occupying the top spot (Table 1). In the same period, the number of enterprises with import and export business in Guangdong exceeded 130,000 for the first time, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year, of which the number of private enterprises accounted for more than eighty percent.
Zhejiang's exports in 2023 will be 3.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and the export value will surpass Jiangsu for the first time, ranking second in the country. In the past five years, Zhejiang's exports have increased by 68.38%, much higher than the growth rate of Guangdong and Jiangsu in the same period. Compared with Jiangsu, Zhejiang's private economy is more active, with a higher proportion of general trade, more diversified export products, and stronger ability to resist risks. In the past two years, the action of "thousands of enterprises to expand the market and increase orders" has become a new business card of Zhejiang's foreign trade.
Anhui's annual exports were 523.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a cumulative increase of 119.19% in the past five years, ranking first among the top ten provinces and cities. In 2023, Anhui will surpass Chongqing, Hunan and Jiangxi, and jump to the tenth place in the country for the first time, with a gap of less than 5 billion yuan with Henan, which ranks ninth. In 2023, Anhui will position the automobile industry as the first industry, accelerate the construction of an internationally competitive new energy vehicle industry cluster, and promote the export of automobiles. Last year, Anhui exported 729,200 vehicles, up 89.8%, ranking second in the country.
From the perspective of export growth, the export value of Tibet, Xinjiang and Heilongjiang will increase by 127.7%, 45.7% and 39.4% respectively in 2023, ranking among the top three in the country, followed by Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Qinghai and Guizhou, with an export growth rate of more than 20%. In 2023, China's exports to Russia and the Belt and Road countries will increase significantly, contributing new growth points to the exports of inland and western provinces.
Exports of the top 30 cities
Five-year average growth of 46%
In 2023, the membership of the "100 billion club" of Chinese mainland exports will expand to 46 cities, an increase of 9 cities from five years ago. In the past few years, more and more cities have seized the opportunity of China's export transformation and upgrading, and the scale of foreign trade has increased significantly, and it has entered the list of strong export cities with a "dark horse" attitude.
In terms of export value, the top 30 export cities in 2023 will have a cumulative export of 16.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 70.66% of the country's total exports, and the export value of the top 30 cities will increase by 46.18% on average compared with five years ago.
The top 30 export cities showed a strong cluster effect, with more than half of the cities coming from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, with 5, 7 and 5 cities in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu on the list respectively. The top 10 cities are Shenzhen, Shanghai, Suzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Jinhua, Guangzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou and Foshan (Table 2). Compared with five years ago, Wenzhou, Hefei and Weifang replaced Huizhou, Zhuhai and Dalian to become new faces on the list.
If 1 trillion yuan, 300 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan are further taken as the cut-off points, cities can be divided into three echelons according to the export value. In the long run, in the five years since 2019, Chinese mainland export cities have shown the characteristics of the first echelon solidification, the second echelon differentiation, and the third echelon diversification.
The top three have a solid pattern
Shenzhen achieves "31 consecutive championships"
In 2023, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Suzhou will continue to be the top three in terms of export value, all exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 24% of the country's total exports.
Among them, Shenzhen's annual exports were 2.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. On an annual basis, Shenzhen has achieved "31 consecutive championships" in terms of export scale. In the past five years, Shenzhen's exports have increased by 50.9%, and it has always responded to the changing trade environment with the attitude of "excellent students".
Shanghai's exports in 2023 will be 1.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a five-year cumulative increase of 27.15%, while Suzhou's exports in 2023 will be 1.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, and a five-year increase of 10.43%. The gap between the two and Shenzhen has further widened.
The "amazing" performance of Shenzhen's exports is inseparable from its strong private enterprise strength and strong industrial foundation. Among Shenzhen's exports, private enterprises contribute more than 60 percent, while private enterprises in Shanghai and Suzhou account for less than 40 percent. In addition, Shenzhen's industrial structure is more complete, and there are many leading enterprises, whether it is the export of traditional advantageous mechanical and electrical products or the export of "new three", all of which have achieved gratifying growth.
Cities in the Pearl River Delta and cities in the Yangtze River Delta
One trades off the other
As China's two major foreign trade windows, the export performance of major cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta in the past five years has been significantly contrasting.
Among the top 30 cities in the second and third echelons, the Yangtze River Delta occupies 12 seats. From the end of 2018 to the end of 2023, the average export value of these cities increased by 60.08%, and the growth rate of Hefei, Shaoxing and Jinhua exceeded 80%, and the export scale expanded rapidly.
Among them, Jinhua's export volume will increase by 11.3% in 2023, second only to Shenzhen among the top 30 cities. As a city with a GDP ranking about 50 in the country, Jinhua's export value reached 663.066 billion yuan, surpassing Guangzhou for the first time and rising to the sixth place in the country.
Judging from the ranking, among the top 30 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, 9 cities have risen compared with five years ago, and the "group" advantage is obvious. Among them, Taizhou advanced 7 places, Wenzhou, Hefei and Changzhou all advanced no less than 5 places.
Different from the Yangtze River Delta export collective, the second and third echelon cities in the Pearl River Delta are facing export "stalls", with an average export growth rate of only 15.43% in the past five years, and most cities have fallen in ranking. Compared with five years ago, the number of cities in the top 30 in the Pearl River Delta has decreased from seven to five.
Dongguan's exports in 2023 will be 846.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. As the leader of the second echelon, Dongguan's export volume has declined for two consecutive years, with a cumulative increase of only 6.35% in the past five years, ranking at the bottom of the top 30 cities. At present, although Dongguan's export scale still ranks fourth in the country, the export volume is only less than 20 billion yuan ahead of Ningbo, which ranks fifth, and the advantage has shrunk to 2%.
Among other cities in the Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou's exports have increased by 15.96% in the past five years, ranking from 5th to 7th, Zhongshan from 25th to 30th, Huizhou and Zhuhai have dropped 14 and 10 places respectively from five years ago, falling out of the list of top 30 cities.
Plain middle
With the dark horses of the third echelon
In the past five years, by actively undertaking industrial transfer and vigorously developing new momentum, the exports of central provinces have increased by nearly 70% on average, accounting for nearly two percentage points of the country's export share. Although the overall export volume has increased significantly, in the top 30 list, only Zhengzhou is the central province on the list. Core cities such as Nanchang, which performed well in previous years, will see a significant decline in exports in 2023.
Among other major regions, Chongqing, Chengdu and Xi'an in the west have a solid leading pattern. Shandong has Qingdao, Yantai and Weifang on the list, among them, Weifang's export volume has increased by 122.18% in the past five years, the highest growth rate among the top 30 cities, ranking 9 places in five years, and entering the top 30 list from 2022. None of the cities in the Northeast region made the list, and Dalian, the best export performer, has only increased by 8.54% in the past five years, falling out of 30 places from 23 five years ago.
In the past five years, the average growth rate of the export value of the first, second and third tier cities was 29.5%, 42.37% and 87.09% respectively. Although many cities in the third echelon have not yet entered the top 30 list, due to the precise riding of the industry, the third echelon has quickly run out of many dark horses in just a few years.
Ningde's exports in 2023 will break the 100 billion yuan mark for the first time, with a 407.64% increase in exports in the past five years, and Wuhu's exports will increase by 257.1% in the past five years, followed by the increase (Figure 1). Other export cities that have doubled their exports of 100 billion yuan in five years include Linyi, Yancheng, Jinan, Weifang and Changsha. Among the 7 cities, Shandong occupies 3 alone.
The rise of Ningde and Wuhu exports is related to the east wind of new energy vehicles going to sea. As the "new energy battery capital of China", Ningde ranks first in the country in terms of lithium battery exports. Wuhu's exports will grow by 63.7% in 2023, and the data shows that Anhui's auto exports account for about a quarter of the country's total, and Wuhu's auto exports account for more than 80% of Anhui's.
This edition is made by Fan Luyuan