Commodity giant Red Sea attack! Crude oil soars!
According to British media reports on the 26th local time, a British oil tanker caught fire after being attacked by a Houthi missile while passing through the Red Sea, injuring the crew and losing oil.
Earlier, Yemen's Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saaria issued a statement that its maritime forces fired missiles at a British oil tanker "Marin Luanda" in the Gulf of Aden and hit the target, causing the ship to catch fire.
This is a very serious incident, which not only threatens the safety of shipping, but also makes the international crude oil market nervous, and oil prices have soared, hitting a new high in nearly two months. On the 26th, international oil prices rose rapidly, with U.S. crude oil closing up 1.11% at $78.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil closing up 1.29% at $83.020 per barrel.
Oil prices have been on a rally since last week, with WTI and Brent both up more than 8% so far this year.
Supply and demand have reversed, and the supply of crude oil is tight!
With the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Palestine and Israel, Yemen, Iraq, the Red Sea, etc., the production capacity and supply problems of crude oil have gradually emerged, and the concern about the interruption of supply in the global oil market is also the main reason for the recent rise in international oil prices.
Attack on Russian 17 million tonne refinery: Ukraine used drones to attack Russian oil facilities for the second time in a week, affecting a 17 million tonnes per year refinery (Rosneft PJSC's Tuapse refinery) after Ukraine attacked a refinery with a processing capacity of 7 million tonnes. Engineers said the 17 million mt refinery, which accounted for more than 9.5% of Russia's total refined product exports, or about 300,000 b/d, in 2023 will need a full month of repairs.
Tensions in the Middle East: Recently, conflicts and crises in the Middle East have been escalating, for example, and so on. All of these events could lead to disruptions or reductions in crude oil supply.
The situation in the Red Sea continues: the attack on a tanker operated by trading giant Trafigura Group, the most significant attack on a tanker by Yemen's Houthi rebels to date, carrying naphtha used to produce gasoline and plastic.
Crude oil shipments blocked: As tensions in the Red Sea escalate, more and more tankers are diverting their routes, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq potentially facing delays in shipping nearly 9 million barrels of oil. Among them, at least two ships carrying a total of nearly 3 million barrels of Saudi crude and refined products may be delayed after loading in the Persian Gulf this month. Five other tankers carrying up to 6 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil are also being diverted from the Red Sea.
The main artery is blocked, and the supply is worried about impacting the chemical market!
As an important shipping route for global shipping, nearly 12% of the world's trade has to pass through it, and the escalation of the Red Sea situation not only has an impact on the global energy, material and other supply chains, but also promotes the rise of chemical prices in Asia.
▶▶ With Saudi Arabia's major petrochemical production bases, Yanbu and Rabigh, both located in the Red Sea, raising supply concerns in markets that are more dependent on supply from the Middle East, with polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE) and ethylene glycol being the most affected.
▶▶ICIS's price forecast report released in January showed that 81% of the 31 petrochemicals covered in the Asian region will rise from the previous month, and it is expected that the Red Sea crisis will continue to put upward pressure on Asian chemical prices in February.
On the other hand, in China, with the further escalation of the Red Sea crisis, higher oil prices, and the recent stocking action before the Spring Festival, the prices of many chemical commodities have risen due to the stimulation of the cost side and the stocking sentiment.
兰州石化T30S PP涨50元/吨，报7500元/吨；
Jilin Petrochemical 0215A ABS rose 150 yuan/ton to 9800 yuan/ton;
The price of diethylene glycol in Jiangsu rose to 5760 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton;
镇江奇美PG-33 GPPS涨200元/吨，报10600元/吨；
Shandong Shengfa methanol external quotation increased by 30 yuan/ton, the implementation of 2500 yuan/ton;
Shenhua Yulin 2426H LDPE rose 200 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton;
Xinjiang Tianye SG-8 PVC rose 140 yuan/ton to 5920/ton;
江苏斯尔邦V6020M EVA涨200元/吨，报12250元/吨；
Tengzhou Shenglong methanol external quotation increased by 30 yuan/ton, the implementation of 2500 yuan/ton;
Shandong Rongxin's external quotation was raised by 30 yuan/ton, and 2500 yuan/ton was implemented;
The market price of emulsion polystyrene-butadiene rubber in Northwest China was raised: Jihua 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton;
Commodity price increases in the past week:
Source*: Guanghua Trading
Investors are currently bullish on the crude oil market, so how long can this rally last?
Guanghuajun believes that although the Red Sea disturbance continues, there is still support for crude oil prices, but OPEC+ has no exact production cut news released, and the guidance of the crude oil market is still wait-and-see, and the extremely cold weather in the United States will gradually subside, crude oil production or recovery, crude oil prices are not enough to drive prices, and it is expected that crude oil prices may remain volatile in the near future. However, the geopolitical situation is still an important factor affecting crude oil prices, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Red Sea shipping situation.