In the past 2023, the foreign trade industry has experienced a series of challenges, such as global trade disputes, the impact of the new crown epidemic, supply chain disruptions, and the instability of the global political and economic environment.
Looking ahead to 2024, there are still a series of possible opportunities and challenges to face, and here are some predictions and analyses of the outlook for foreign trade in 2024 from a professional perspective:
Opportunity:
1. The exchange rate is down, and the price is cheap, and Chinese manufacturers have the price advantage to continue to compete for overseas consumers
2. The technology cycle may bottom out, and the export of electronic products will also bottom out. This is very important for a large manufacturer and exporter of consumer electronics
3. Although the transfer of the 1+N production chain of multinational companies has reduced our export orders for finished products, the Chinese-funded enterprises that have transferred with the production chain will still purchase raw materials or accessories from China, which also creates opportunities for the export of our raw materials and accessories.
4. Driven by AI digital technology, foreign trade will undergo transformation.
5. The global demand for sustainable and environmentally friendly products is growing.
Challenge:
1. The U.S. election year may bring new shocks to Sino-US trade relations, and the continued decoupling trend of the United States may further drag down our commodity exports.
2. The "minimum" trade rules that the US Congress is discussing will have a negative impact on e-commerce enterprises in the mainland and on domestic manufacturers of clothing, daily necessities, and gifts.
3. The impact of the global economic recession.
4. Exchange rate fluctuations may affect the price competition of product exports.
5. International trade frictions may increase the difficulty of market exports.
6. With the continuous upgrading of digital technology, the awareness of many fraud risks should be enhanced, and we should be more vigilant against foreign trade fraud.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of 2023, China's exports to Europe showed a downward trend, reflecting the decline in import demand, and second, most European buyers will not easily change suppliers. As far as the U.S. market is concerned, the development of China's foreign trade enterprises has reached saturation.
With the rise of some emerging blue ocean markets and the deepening of China's investment and cooperation with countries along the "Belt and Road", these countries have gradually become the "sweet spots" of foreign trade enterprises.
1. Southeast Asian market: Since 2020, Southeast Asia, the main body of ASEAN, has replaced the European Union as China's largest trading partner. Highly mobile, high social media penetration, and young consumers are becoming more and more diverse, while the rise of social e-commerce and brand independent websites has led to strong growth in emerging categories. In addition, according to the published data, China's daily necessities, motorcycle parts, bags, equipment, etc. are also the largest imports in the Southeast Asian market.
2. Central Asian market (Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan) Central Asian market has always been an emerging market ignored by Chinese foreign trade enterprises, their location is the transportation hub through the Eurasian continent, has always been the only place to go from east to west and south to north, the ancient Silk Road also passed through here, until modern Central Asia still has important international geopolitical and economic significance.
For foreign trade products, clothing, daily necessities, motorcycle parts, bags and other hot sales. And these products are also the main commodities produced by domestic and foreign trade enterprises
3. Middle East market:
The Middle East is a region with a high GDP, a large young population, a diversified economy, and abundant natural resources such as oil, but the over-reliance on oil has led to a weak manufacturing infrastructure, so they have to import a lot of consumer goods, which has led to high demand for Chinese products in the Middle East. Therefore, it is regarded as a huge "potential stock" by more and more overseas enterprises.
Secondly, the promotion of the "Belt and Road" policy will better combine the resources and geographical advantages of the Gulf countries with the mainland's production capacity advantages, and promote the deepening of cooperation between the two sides in more fields. China's imports from the Gulf countries are mainly crude oil and natural gas, and China's exports to the Gulf countries are mainly manufactured goods, mainly 、、、、、 and so on.
4. Latin American market:
In 2020, China and Latin America withstood the impact of the epidemic and held the US$200 billion mark for the third consecutive year, in 2021, the trade volume between China and Latin America increased by 41% year-on-year to US$450 billion, and in early 2022, Nicaragua, Cuba, Argentina and other Latin American countries signed the "Belt and Road" strategic cooperation documents with China. After the e-commerce markets in Europe, America, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, the Latin American market is gradually becoming a new business blue ocean, and it has also attracted the attention of many foreign traders.
1. Sustainable development and environmentally friendly products
Potential markets: European Union, North America, Australia, and other regions of implementation.
Market development strategy: Focus on renewable materials, products with low carbon footprint, and recyclable, such as green building materials, biodegradable plastics, green energy solutions, etc. In order to tap into these markets, companies should obtain relevant environmental certifications, such as the European Union's eco-label and the Green Seal
2. Health and personal care products
Potential markets: Asia, North America, Europe
Market Development Strategy: With the global aging population, increasing health awareness, and the expansion of the middle class, there is a growing demand for health supplements, nutritional supplements, and smart health devices.
3. High-tech products
Potential markets: North America, East Asia (especially South Korea and Japan), Europe
Market development strategy: With the development of technological innovations, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, 5G communication technology, and wearable devices, suppliers are required to continue to develop innovative products and respond quickly to the market.
4. Agricultural products and food
The data shows that China's agricultural exports have continued to grow in the past few decades.
Potential markets: Middle East, Asia, Africa
Market Development Strategies: The increasing global population and rising middle class are driving the demand for high-quality agricultural products and food products.
5. Outdoor sports products
Potential markets: North America, South America, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia
Market development strategy: After the epidemic, more and more people are pursuing a healthy lifestyle, but each region has different preferences for outdoor sports, and the products are relatively wide. Enhance independent research and development capabilities, meet new trends, and pay attention to the application of environmentally friendly materials.
How can the outdoor sports industry seize global business opportunities?
To sum up, 2024 is still a year of opportunities and challenges, we need to maintain an optimistic and positive attitude, and at the same time improve our abilities in all aspects through continuous self-study, so as to cope with the new year in a better state!
Foreign trade customer development, search engine development, Google Maps development, customs data, LinkedIn network addition, WhatsApp/linkedin marketing promotion, and other ways to meet more customers, welcome to pay attention to the public account of the same name
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