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Falling short, and then exploring 2700?

Falling short, and then exploring 2700?

Today, the market fell sharply again, and before the close, it fell out of the smell of panic selling, and the negative feedback was imminent.

Wind All A rose by -1.9%, of which the CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose by -0.9%, -1.97% and -2.63% respectively.

At the industry level, banks, home appliances, and food and beverages rose against the trend, while power equipment, communications, computers, media, social services, beauty care, and electronics all fell by more than 3 percentage points. The money-losing effect is significant.

Falling short, and then exploring 2700?

Throughout the day, the bailout funds were still working, and the China Special Valuation Index rose 0.45%, closing in the red against the trend. However, the selling pressure was too great, and the index fell sharply near the close, indicating that market confidence was unstable, and many funds chose to flee.

What is the main contradiction of A-shares at present?

First of all, it is not a policy, and the policy is still in force. Over the weekend, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) continued to issue policies to stabilize confidence and completely suspend the lending of restricted shares; Guangzhou issued a policy of substantially liberalizing purchase restrictions, opening the first shot of "de-limiting" purchases in first-tier cities......

External factors create the perturbation, but it will not be the main factor. Last week, the A-share biomedical sector fell sharply after U.S. lawmakers made restrictive remarks about Chinese CXO companies, and Trump's campaign rhetoric on a trade war with China has been fermenting, which has also suppressed market sentiment. Considering that there has been no significant outflow of northbound funds, and the above problems have been around for a long time, it is obviously not the main contradiction.

Speaking of which, it's still liquidity pressure.

As the Chinese New Year approaches, the demand for liquidity in the real sector increases. Although the central bank cut the RRR in a timely manner, the liquidity released by the central bank's RRR cut mainly entered the entity through debt, and the current willingness of the real sector to increase leverage is not strong. Against the backdrop of sluggish financing intentions in the real sector, there is a question mark over the extent to which the central bank's RRR cut can alleviate liquidity pressure.

Recently, some banks have vigorously promoted millions of consumer loans, which is very gimmicky. But those who want to borrow cannot meet the threshold, and those who meet the threshold are probably not willing to take out loans. From the bank's point of view, it is really difficult to lend money only to people who don't want to borrow money.

Back in the A-share market, many investors would rather sell their assets at a low price than add new liabilities.

In terms of today's market, the net outflow of northbound funds was 592 million, with the highest net outflow of 6.4 billion in the afternoon, and then narrowed rapidly. At the same time, domestic selling pressure continues to increase, and the current situation of tight liquidity continues unabated.

Part of the pressure on liquidity is the real demand for funds, such as the use of money for the Spring Festival, such as repaying due loans, etc., and a considerable part is preventive selling, such as reducing positions to avoid early warning or liquidation risks, etc. In the case of the latter, the decline is the trigger, as long as the index does not fall, the demand to sell will become larger and larger, forming a negative feedback loop.

The current problem is still to ease the liquidity pressure in the market.

At the short-term liquidity level, the national team vigorously supported the bottom to save the market, but the main ones bought were the relevant sectors of the special assessment, and other technology and growth sectors lacked liquidity support and were still in a state of negative feedback: the selling orders that urgently needed liquidity could not find funds to take over, so they had to cut the meat and sell, and they fell as soon as they sold, and they had to sell.

In this case, how to alleviate the liquidity problem of small and medium-cap stocks has become the main short-term contradiction of A-shares, and also determines the short-term trend of the market.

The best way forward is for state-owned assets to change their rescue strategy, from fully supporting the special valuation of the bottom to buying CSI 500 and CSI 1000 ETFs to inject liquidity into small and medium-sized caps.

Buying a special valuation can stabilize the index, but it cannot bring a money-making effect. The Shanghai Composite Index stood at 2,900 points, and many investors' holding feelings were still at 2,700 points, and the performance of the macro index was greatly deviated from the micro money-making effect.

Without narrowing this bias, it is difficult to say that the bailout was successful. After stabilizing the index, failing to stabilize confidence, the market remains fragile.

If this vulnerability continues, the previous rescue efforts may fall short, and the Shanghai Composite Index may test another 2,700 points.

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Previous: There is a red plate again! The "10,000 people shake" plate has been out of supply for 3 years and has been new again, with only 60 sets
Next: It dropped by 2.2 million! In the past, the unit price of 60,000 people shook the red plate and fell to the beginning of "2".