The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for almost two years, and although there is no end in sight to this protracted and indistinguishable conflict, China, as Russia's largest trading partner, has reaped tangible results. In a word, from Russia's industrial production to the people's clothing, food, housing and transportation, Chinese products occupy a dominant position in the Russian market.
It can be seen from the trade data of China and Russia in the past 10 years that the trade volume between China and Russia has grown most rapidly in the past few years before and after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the trade volume from 2021 to 2023 alone will reach 577.269 billion US dollars, more than 30 billion US dollars more than the sum of the previous six years.
Obviously, in 2021, Russia was preparing for the war, so the trade volume between China and Russia soared by 35.80% compared to the previous year. 2022 and 2023 are the period when the Russia-Ukraine war is in full swing, and Russia can only turn to the East to buy when it is subject to all-round sanctions from the West.
In this way, on the basis of the 35.80% increase in 2021, the trade volume between China and Russia will continue to show explosive growth in 2022 and 2023, with growth rates reaching 26.30% and 29.30% respectively! By the end of 2023, the trade volume between China and Russia will exceed the 200 billion mark for the first time, reaching 240.111 billion US dollars.
According to the data of China Customs, China's exports to Russia are mainly computers, mobile phones, notebooks, game consoles, flat-screen TVs, electric bicycles, electric blankets, flashlights, heaters, lamps and other household appliances and electronic products, as well as clothes, shoes, hats, socks and gloves, thermoses, household hardware, kitchen supplies and other daily necessities.
In addition, there are all-encompassing goods such as Chinese tea, silk, Chinese food, and small goods, which are also very popular among the Russian people. These high-quality and inexpensive Chinese goods dominate almost every segment of Russia.
According to Counterpoint, Chinese phones now account for 95% of the Russian market. Almost all of the Chinese brands sold on the market are Xiaomi, Huawei, Realme, HONOR, TECNO, OPPO, VIVO and ZTE. Among them, Xiaomi alone has a share of 53%.
In terms of machinery and electromechanical, such as automated production lines, industrial robots, oil and gas equipment, CNC machine tools, power equipment, mining machinery, construction machinery, production equipment, industrial manufacturing equipment, chemical products, fertilizers, batteries, automobiles, new energy industries and other fields, Chinese products also occupy a high share of the Russian market.
At present, more than 30 Chinese car brands have officially entered the Russian market, and the most popular Chinese car brands include Chery, Haval and Geely. According to the Russian analytical agency Autostat, 56.3% of car dealerships in Russia sell cars of Chinese brands.
Among the top 10 sales in the Russian car (passenger car) market in 2023, Chinese auto brands occupy positions from second to seventh, including Chery, Haval, Geely, Changan, Xingtu, etc. Autostat predicts that the Russian market will welcome 30 to 45 new models of Chinese brands in 2024, and it is expected that the sales volume of new cars will reach about 1.2 million units, which will account for 80% of the market share in Russia.
In the Russian heavy truck market, the annual sales of China's heavy trucks represented by SITRAK, Shaanxi Automobile, Jiefang, HOWO, Foton, Dongfeng and JAC have reached nearly 140,000 units, accounting for nearly 70% of the Russian market, and there is a possibility of further increasing the proportion in the future.
Ostrovsky, a doctor of economics at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, even optimistically predicts that the total bilateral trade between China and Russia may reach $400 billion in 2024.