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Modern people's high dependence on "oil" has raised fears of oil depletion, and at the same time, many so-called "experts", "elites" and even US government departments have constantly warned that oil is facing depletion.
But why is it that ten or twenty years have passed, and the depletion of oil in their mouths has not yet arrived, but more and more reserves, does this mean that the price of oil will be reduced?
As a major oil consumer, where does China hope for oil in the future? Let's find out.
Is oil depletion a "shocking hoax"?
Since entering the industrial age, almost all human progress is inseparable from oil, and the consumption of oil is also rising, consuming hundreds of thousands of tons of oil every year.
At the same time, just like worrying about a dead phone, humans seem to have had the so-called "oil depletion anxiety" from the beginning, and they have been worrying that they will run out of oil one day.
For example, Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, a Chinese new energy vehicle company, said that oil could only be used by humans for another 50 years at most.
Claims like these are not uncommon, and they always make a lot of people fry their pots every time they appear, but if we look at some data, we will know whether the idea of oil depletion is "alarmist" or "real".
In August 2023, the report "Global Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Situation and Oil Company Dynamics (2023)" was officially released.
The report introduces the exploration of global oil and gas resources in 2022, pointing out that the global oil and gas exploration situation bottomed out in this year, and the newly discovered oil and gas reserves continued to grow.
In 2022, a total of 259 new oil and gas fields were discovered worldwide, of which 239 were conventional oil and gas fields, 25 more than the same period in 2021.
Among these conventional oil and gas fields, 31 belong to medium and large conventional oil fields.
The report mentions that in 2022, the recoverable volume of newly discovered fields reached 3.007 billion tons of equivalent.
Based on the global consumption of 5 billion tonnes of oil per year, the newly discovered fields in 2022 alone could meet three-fifths of the annual demand.
In other words, it is true that humans consume a huge amount of oil today, but at the same time, more oil is being discovered every year.
But doesn't it mean that the oil is running out? How can there be more and more of it?
First of all, exploration technology is constantly improving, and some oil fields may not have been discovered in the past, but now they have been discovered after technological advancement.
In addition, the extraction technology is also constantly being upgraded, which can help us to exploit more oil fields.
For example, when the Daqing Oilfield was first discovered, we had no way to extract oil within two meters underground, but with the advancement of technology, this problem no longer exists, which is the main reason for the doubling of the production volume of the Daqing Oilfield.
Second, the increasing number of oil discoveries may have something to do with the way oil is generated.
In the past, textbooks told us that oil was the result of the carcasses of animals and plants buried underground, and then evolved over a long period of geological evolution, which is also known as the "organic theory".
If oil is generated in this way, then oil is a non-renewable resource for humans, because the process of producing oil is too long, and it is difficult for a large number of animals and plants to die and be buried underground at the same time.
In recent years, after research, some researchers have put forward the "inorganic theory", that is, oil itself is produced from inorganic matter and is widely present in the earth's crust.
Put simply, the theory is that oil is actually derived from carbon in the earth's crust, some of which is in the form of hydrocarbons.
Since hydrocarbons are relatively light, they will continue to bubble up the cracks in the rock.
According to this statement, the earth is constantly bubbling oil, and the oil should not run out, but the recognition of this statement is not as high as the former.
In the end, oil can be made by man, so where does that begin?
Many countries are now focusing on oil shale, a rock formation that contains a lot of kerogen.
Theoretically, we could separate large amounts of hydrocarbons from kerogen by distilling and other means, and then make them into gasoline or diesel for human use.
It is worth noting that this method is not just on paper, and many countries such as the United States and China have begun to try to make oil from oil shale.
Generally speaking, oil may not be an inexhaustible source of energy, but there is still a lot of oil in nature, which cannot be used up in a short period of time.
Coupled with the availability of man-made oil, natural gas, and other alternatives, we don't need to worry too much about oil depletion, but if more oil is discovered, does that mean that as the supply increases, the price of oil will fall?
Will more and more oil be lowered?
First of all, we need to understand how the oil market works.
Oil is a global commodity, and its price is affected by many factors, including supply and demand, political situation, global economic conditions, and more. Therefore, considering the increase in oil supply alone, it does not directly lead to the conclusion that prices will fall.
On the one hand, if oil supply continues to increase and market demand remains stable or declines, then oil prices should theoretically come under some pressure.
This is because more supply means that there is more supply of oil in the market, which increases competition in the market.
In a highly competitive market environment, oil producers may resort to price reduction strategies in order to compete for market share.
But for now, many oil-producing countries are not willing to seize the market in this way, which is actually quite understandable.
For oil-producing countries, where oil exports are the backbone of their economy, falling prices mean less income, so they prefer to stabilize the price of oil by reducing production to reduce market supply.
On the other hand, the fluctuation of oil prices is also affected by many other factors. For example, geopolitical events, natural disasters, market speculation, etc., can have an impact on oil prices.
These factors can cause prices to fluctuate wildly, making predicting price movements more complex.
In addition, we need to take into account that oil is a finite resource.
With the development of the global economy and the growth of the population, the demand for oil is also increasing.
In addition, in the process of oil exploitation, countries will definitely extract the oil that is easier to extract first, and as the difficulty of exploitation increases, the cost of extraction will continue to increase.
Therefore, even if the supply increases, if the demand remains strong, coupled with the impact of various factors such as the cost of extraction, then the price may remain stable or continue to rise.
China's future oil hopes in the South China Sea?
In fact, many countries are now trying to reduce the proportion of oil in the energy mix, because as a traditional fossil energy, oil produces greenhouse gases and so on.
However, at present, the manufacturing cost of artificial gasoline is relatively high, and it is difficult to promote it on a large scale in a short period of time.
In addition, the utilization of new energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy is still in the development stage, so oil will still be the main energy source for mankind for a long time in the future.
Compared with the Middle East and other places, China is not particularly rich in oil, and imports more oil from Russia, Iran and other countries every year.
But in any case, the only way to do this is to hold oil resources in our own hands is the most reliable, so is it possible for China to achieve "oil freedom" on its own? Where is China's hope for oil in the future?
Many experts have already given an answer to this question, namely the South China Sea.
Among the four major seas of the mainland, the South China Sea is the one with the richest resource reserves, containing various resources such as oil and natural gas.
Up to now, there are more than 10 basins in the South China Sea that have been found to contain oil, including the Zengmu Basin, etc., with a total area of 852,400 square meters.
According to preliminary estimates, the South China Sea has oil reserves between 23 billion and 30 billion tons, accounting for a quarter of the world's oil reserves, and is optimistically estimated to reach 55 billion tons.
The Mother Basin is the most concentrated oil and gas rich area in the South China Sea, with more than 5 billion tons of seabed oil reserves, which can be exploited by China for decades.
It is no exaggeration to say that the South China Sea will become the second Persian Gulf in the world, but at present, due to various factors such as cost, most of the mainland's oil and gas resources development in the South China Sea is concentrated on the northern slope of the South China Sea, that is, the development of oil and gas resources in the offshore area.
However, more than seventy percent of the world's oil and gas resources are distributed in the ocean, and the future trend must be to extract oil from the deep sea, so the South China Sea is the hope of the mainland's undeveloped oil!
Bibliography:
The official website of the National Energy Administration: offshore natural gas supply accounts for about 97% of Hainan's total natural gas
China Petroleum News: The latest discovery! Global oil and gas discovery reserves have increased significantly!
Voice of China of China Central Radio and Television: How long can the oil that has been said to be depleted last longer?