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Preamble:
Since Lai Ching-te won the Taiwan provincial election, Chinese mainland has thrown two punches in succession, fiercely warning the governor of Taiwan in the next 4-8 years. In this regard, the statement of the Western world is also very interesting, the Eurasian Group proposed that Zelensky, Netanyahu and Lai Qingde have become the three most dangerous friends of the United States.
Obviously, Westerners also believe that Lai Qingde's appointment will have a considerable impact on Sino-US relations. So, will Sino-US relations continue to deteriorate in the future, and if so, to what extent?
Today, we're going to talk about it.
Why not military reunification?
On January 13 this year, the election for the next governor of Taiwan Province officially kicked off. In this general election, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) deputies are very fiercely competing, because the coming to power of these two parties has a bearing on the direction of Taiwan's policy in the next four to eight years.
The Kuomintang's policy has always been rather ambiguous. Under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek, although they maintained a sense of counteroffensive, they generally recognized the reunification of the motherland and always recognized their identity as Chinese. Although the Chiang dynasty later completely lost control of the party, the ruling philosophy of the Kuomintang did not deviate from this track on the whole. Although they recognize their identity as Chinese, although they are somewhat ambiguous on the topic of cross-strait reunification, they do not overemphasize independence, but prefer reunification as a whole.
In contrast, the DPP's thinking is much more radical. This party is very radical in its governing philosophy, recognizing Japan as their home country, and constantly fantasizing that the United States can defend their security. Under this illusion, several leaders of the Democratic Progressive Party have consistently propagated the idea of Taiwan independence, harming Taiwan's young generation, and causing young people in Taiwan to increasingly disapprove of their identity as Chinese.
Lai Qingde, a representative of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who is running for election this time, is also a typical extremist Taiwan independence element. If Lai Qingde and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are allowed to continue to control Taiwan, then they will inevitably continue Tsai Ing-wen's leftists, constantly bouncing back and forth on the red line issue, and brainwashing Taiwan's young generation even more frantically, making the hope for the peaceful reunification of the motherland even slimmer.
In dealing with the Taiwan issue, our policy has always been the same, that is, we will not use physical means to solve the problem unless we have to do so. As long as there is still a glimmer of hope for peaceful reunification in Taiwan, we cannot but lightly use force.
For this decision, in fact, young people in Chinese mainland are also a little incomprehensible. Many people think that such behavior is too weak. Since ancient times, in the face of areas with a heart of secession, the Central Plains Dynasty will use force to solve the problem, and history has also proved that the solution by force is a very effective means. However, we would rather watch the enemy bounce in our faces, and we also want to publicize the so-called blood and family ties between compatriots on both sides of the strait, and delay in using force for the sake of those family ties that no longer exist.
It is understandable for the common people to have such ideas, but from an official point of view, adhering to peaceful reunification is actually the best way to solve the problem.
You must know that the DPP can only represent a small number of people in Taiwan, not the entire population. Of the more than 20 million people in Taiwan, not every one of them wholeheartedly recognizes a thief as their father, and there are also many people of insight who support reunification. As long as this part exists, there will still be room for peaceful reunification.
In addition, the reason why Taiwan's current generation has a serious mentality of "rejecting reunification" is that they have actually been brainwashed by the DPP. If we choose peaceful reunification, in time, after Taiwan is recovered, we can still straighten out the thinking of these people through educational means. However, if force is used, it is likely to arouse the rebellion of these people, and they will be even more reluctant to be governed.
You must know that the reunification of the motherland is not only the end of taking back this piece of land, but the ultimate goal of recovering it is to better manage and unify the country's strategic direction. If the use of force is used to take over the stage, then it will increase the cost of future management. It's not a good deal.
Therefore, the official emphasis that "we will not use force unless absolutely necessary" is actually a very sober decision.
In addition, the adoption of peaceful reunification does not mean that we will tolerate Taiwan, and in places that people cannot see, the mainland has actually made many efforts by non-war means.
China's countermeasures
The Democratic Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te's election will inevitably affect the next cross-strait relations and even the next Sino-US relations. What the hell is going on?
In the past few years, when facing Taiwan, the mainland has always used a policy of softness. In the eyes of the common people, this method is "soft on Taiwan." But in fact, as long as you understand the country's methods over the years, you will understand that the mainland's actions are not only not weak, but very tough, which can be called an unsolvable conspiracy!
Among the many conspiracies against Taiwan, the policy of "benefiting Taiwan" is undoubtedly a very important one.
Burdened with infamy, the mainland has continuously strengthened trade with Taiwan for several decades, and in the course of trade, in the name of "benefiting Taiwan," it has tightly tied its economy to ours. When this method is not used in normal times, many people will feel that it is really stupid for the mainland to give Taiwan hundreds of billions of banknotes in vain every year in trade. However, when China used this "conspiracy" card, many people realized how terrible the economic tie between the two sides of the strait was for Taiwan.
A few years ago, Tsai Ing-wen danced very happily, and we just sanctioned their phoenix lotus without pain, which made the fruit farmers on the island of Taiwan wail. Later, it was followed by the ban on lotus fog, which greatly reduced Tsai Ing-wen's political prestige. Because of these two seemingly unimportant trade exchanges, Tsai Ing-wen has not been able to solve the problems.
And this is the real power of the policy of benefiting Taiwan.
Tying Taiwan's economy to us to the death, and then relying on the mainland's vast market and a terrifying economy, it will turn over and affect Taiwan's social economy. If they approve of reunification, it is fine, but if they do not, then we only need to make extremely small adjustments in economic policy, and we will be able to set off a bloody storm on the island of Taiwan.
In addition, when Pelosi visited Taiwan last year, the mainland's military performance in the military exercises around Taiwan was enough to deter Taiwan. Through the encirclement like an iron bucket, we almost made it clear with our actions: I have enough ability to fight you, but I don't fight you now, not because I am afraid of you, but because I am thinking that I will not be far away from hurting you in the sense of compatriotism, and you should not be ignorant.
In the current Taiwan gubernatorial election, we have shown Taiwan what China's strength is at the political level.
On the third day of Lai's election, Nauru, a former country with diplomatic relations, announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This kind of behavior without any warning was called a "surprise severance of diplomatic relations" by the Taiwan side, and it also gave Lai Qingde and the DPP behind him a slap in the face.
Hsiang-hsien
The severance of diplomatic relations between Nauru and Taiwan is certainly not a decision that can be made overnight. Before that, we must have done a lot of work, just waiting for this day to come and give Taiwan a warning.
From this, we can also see that Chinese mainland has formed an encirclement of Taiwan at the political level.
Nowadays, there are only 12 countries left with Taiwan's so-called diplomatic relations, and they are all inconsequential, and it can even be said that they can only eat white food. However, it is difficult for Taiwan to retain diplomatic relations with such countries, and it can be seen that China has absolutely crushed Taiwan at the economic, military, political, and diplomatic levels. It also confirms from the side that the reason why we adhere to peaceful diplomacy is not weakness, but absolute confidence in our own strength.
Impact on U.S.-China relations
After Lai Qingde was elected, the Eurasian Group publicly claimed that he, Netanyahu and Zelensky had become the three most dangerous friends of the United States. Why is that?
China has never chosen to take over Taiwan by force, not only because of political and national sentimental considerations, but also because of international considerations.
Once we launch a war of liberation against Taiwan, the Western bloc headed by the United States will inevitably do everything possible to hold us into the quagmire of war, consume our strength, and at the same time expand the scope of their strength in the whole world.
On the other hand, if we maintain our strategic focus and do not trigger an armed takeover at present, but use other means to draw the United States into the quagmire of war, then the United States will be the next to be the one who has no skills.
If we look at the current world situation, we can see that China is actually working towards this aspect.
In the European region, the war between Ukraine and Russia is still ongoing, although Ukraine has the entire NATO aid behind it, Russia has never fallen, and has always been able to contain the attention of the United States, forcing them to desperately spend their family funds to aid Ukraine.
Russia, which is not outstanding in terms of people's livelihood economy, can do this without the economic support of a large country behind it.
In addition, in the Middle East, the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has further triggered a dramatic change in the situation in the entire region. Now, Allah and Hamas in Lebanon have caught the attention of Israeli ground forces. The Houthis, and Iran behind them, have also begun to formally compete with the United States in the Red Sea. If the United States ignores Israel, its power in the Middle East is bound to be completely strangled. If Israel is in charge, then it is necessary to send stronger support, and it is impossible to save Israel by giving away weapons and equipment and logistical materials. This "stronger support" is actually to personally send troops to participate in the war.
Once the United States really relapses into the war, then Iran, the big brother behind the Middle East, and Russia to the north, will inevitably drag the United States to the death, leaving him with no time to care about anything else. And the reason why these two countries dare to put on such a strangulation game when their national strength is obviously inferior to that of the United States is inseparable from the strong support of a certain big country behind them.
If the United States focuses its efforts on the Middle East thoroughly, then as long as Lai Qingde provokes trouble, we can justifiably launch the recovery plan. When the time comes, even if the United States wants to take care of this side, it will not have the energy. Once the war breaks out again in East Asia, the United States, which has no skills, is likely to lose control over the Western Pacific, or the Middle East, or Eastern Europe, or even the whole of Europe. No matter where it loses control, it will seriously shake the hegemony of the United States.
And once the hegemony is shaken, the whole world wants to continue to try whether it can overthrow the "tyrant". When the time comes, what awaits the United States, I believe everyone can guess.
It is precisely because of this that the Eurasian bloc will claim that Lai Qingde, Zelensky, and Netanyahu have become the three most dangerous friends of the United States.
What do you have to say about this? Please put your thoughts in the comment area below, and we'll see you next time.