One is a 21-year-old young "first sister in China", and the other is the "second sister in the world" in the aesthetics of violence. The Australian Open women's singles showdown at the beginning of 2024 is destined to attract great attention from tennis fans around the world.
With Chinese women's tennis player Zheng Qinwen cleanly defeating the "dark horse" Yastremska from the qualifying round all the way to the semifinals 2:0 in last night's match, the ultimate battle of this Australian Open women's singles is about to kick off. On January 27, Beijing time, the newly ranked world No. 7 Zheng Qinwen will face his biggest test in this Australian Open, against the current world No. 2 and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus. 这也是郑钦文继去年美网首次对决之后，再次与这位稳定的、超强的白俄罗斯选手交手。 In last year's US Open 8-in-4 match, Zheng Qinwen lost to Sabalenka in two sets, 1:6 and 4:6!
Let's take a look at the pre-match analysis of these two players:
Biography comparison
Sabalenka: Alina Sabalenka, born on May 5, 1998 in Minsk, Belarus, is 25 years old and 1.82 meters tall. She had just beaten the number one player in the United States and world No. 3 Gauff 2-0 in the semi-finals of this year's Australian Open. In 2023, Sabalenka defeated Yelena Rybakina in the final of the Australian Open to win her first Grand Slam women's singles title. Her career record of 263 wins, 117 losses, and a cumulative prize pool of 20512563 dollars all illustrate her prowess.
Zheng Qinwen: Born on October 8, 2002 in Shiyan City, Hubei Province, China, Zheng Qinwen is 21 years old, 1.85 meters tall, and is currently ranked 7th in the world, and won the first career tour title in the women's singles final of the WTA 250 Palermo in 2023. In the quarterfinals of the 2023 US Open, she reached the final of this year's Australian Open, which is her best result since participating in the Australian Open and Grand Slam tournaments. At the same time, she also set a new record for the youngest age of a Chinese mainland female player to reach a Grand Slam final. He has a career record of 60 wins and 40 losses, and has accumulated prize money of 2935768 dollars.
Comparison of playing styles
Sabalenka: "Serving Cannon" is the title given to her by netizens. Right-hand grip, double-reverse grip. High-decibel screams, high-speed shots comparable to male players, and ferocious and violent baseline shots are all shining labels on Sabalenka's body. In addition, Sabalenka is better at suppressing opponents with strength and active attacks, preemptively dominating the position. At the same time, Sabalenka is very good at using her opponent's second serve to complete the attack, which is also one of her "killer features".
In the last round, Sabalenka brutally defeated Kasatkina
Zheng Qinwen: Right-hand grip, double-reverse grip. She can play a strong forehand topspin, service speed, service accuracy, line change ability, movement speed are all great, she can also make sliding and cutting movements on hard courts, and her technical characteristics and advantages are serve and forehand offensive strength, very powerful. Zheng Qinwen's weaknesses are: unstable first-serve, less tenacity than Zheng Jie, not enough to win Li Na's sharp ball, not enough flexible mobilization of opponents, and often random mistakes in batting.
A review and summary of last year's US Open defeat
After losing 0:2 to Sabalenka at the 2023 US Open, Zheng Qinwen should have clearly seen the problems and gaps between the two sides:
1. In Sabalenka's service round, Zheng Qinwen can only get a maximum of two points per game. Because her receiving position is too far back, even if she receives the serve successfully, the quality of the return is not high, and Sabalenka's serve is also super powerful.
2, his own slow heat and the opponent's firepower is full, the more he fights, the more courageous he becomes, the overly strong Sabalenka did not give Zheng Qinwen much time to adjust. Zheng Qinwen was suppressed by the opponent's momentum throughout the game, resulting in the final inability to return to the sky.
Judging from the full-court data of last year's matchup, the gap between Zheng Qinwen in terms of first, second and total points is obvious. She needs to be in tomorrow's finals, she must play to her strengths and avoid her weaknesses, and she must go all out and be in full shape as soon as she starts!
Zheng Qinwen's 6 key magic weapons to win
1. First make sure to catch Sabalenka's violent shot, and then find the winning fighter through multiple shots and counterattacks;
2. Strive to disrupt the opponent's mentality and wait for the opponent to take the initiative to make unforced mistakes;
3. If Zheng Qinwen can play moderate pressure and stability, Sabalenka's mistakes will increase, and there will be a chance to win;
4. Play some balls that make Saba consume more energy and pull away from multiple angles, and the small balls in front of the net that do not allow her to borrow strength cannot be missing;
5. On the premise of maintaining the attack power of the serve, Zheng's first-serve success rate should be stable at least 60% or even higher;
6. Adjust the mentality of the game, enter the state quickly at the beginning, and improve the bad habit of slow heating in the previous game;
It stands to reason that Zheng Qinwen is not afraid of players like Sabalenka. Zheng Qinwen is most afraid of players who can grind, players who are most afraid of tricks, and players who don't talk about martial arts. Therefore, proper tactics, stable and continuous play, and improving one's own one-shot and technical level are the keys to victory.
Bold Prediction: % Probability of Winning
Compared with last year's U.S. Open, Zheng Qinwen's progress in the past six months is visible to the naked eye! Estimated probability of Zheng Qinwen winning: 50%
Outlook for the finals
In the face of Sabalenka, Zheng Qinwen is strong when he is strong. 看看萨巴伦卡会不会卫冕成功，郑钦文或许就是那个能创造奇迹的人。 Sabalenka, as the defending champion, actually has a greater probability of winning the title, but if she is in a sluggish form in the final, Zheng Qinwen still has the possibility of winning another Grand Slam title after Li Na. 不过，如果萨巴伦卡出色发挥，而郑钦文的一发不在状态、相持稳定性也糟糕的话，那么郑钦文也是存在吞蛋甚至惨败的风险。
To be honest, Zheng Qinwen does have a gap with Sabalenka's strength, I hope there will be a surprise, I am proud to lose, don't have psychological baggage, we Chinese fans finally saw Chinese players in the Grand Slam final again after 10 years!
如果郑钦文最终能够夺冠，世界排名将超过贾巴尔来到第6位，这又将是一个伟大的成绩！
Looking forward to Zheng Qinwen giving full play to his level and playing smartly!
Good luck [Bixin] [Bixin]