Battery prices have plummeted, and a wave of price reductions is coming

Author: Lu Shiming

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Edited by Gale

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Recently, the topic of plummeting battery prices has been widely discussed. The cause of the incident came from a news some time ago, some media reported that the battery leader CATL is currently sorting out the production line resources and proposing to reduce the price of power batteries.

As one of the core components of new energy vehicles, battery cost has always been the biggest expense of car companies, and it largely determines the operating profit of a new energy vehicle company.

In the early years, because of the high price of upstream materials, the price of the terminal car companies was increased layer by layer, resulting in high cost pressure and bitterness of terminal car companies. However, since last year, with the gradual extinguishment of the capital fire, the price of battery raw materials has begun to fall sharply, and the profit margins of car companies have been enhanced, providing a lot of support for the "price war".

Now, as the cost of batteries falls to the next level, the electric car market may usher in a more turbulent wave of price cuts, and the battle between car companies will become more exciting. The industry knockout race is accelerating again, which is undoubtedly a positive for consumers.

Battery cost roller coaster

Judging from media reports, after entering 2024, CATL will continue to promote 173Ah VDA-specification lithium iron phosphate cells to car companies, with 2.2C rate fast charging as standard, taking the route of large single products.

For this product, industry insiders said: "In the middle of 24 years, several car companies will switch to this product, the price of battery cells is quite low, and the target is the pure electric market of 100,000-200,000 yuan." ”

It is understood that the price of the battery cell for this product launched by CATL will not exceed 0.4 yuan/Wh, and the entire power battery industry is planning to push the battery price to 0.3 yuan/Wh.

What is the concept of 0.3 yuan/Wh? In other words, the cost of one kilowatt-hour of electricity is almost 300 yuan, so the cost of 100 kilowatt-hours is about 30,000 yuan. If you add in the heat dissipation, guard plate and other accessories, the cost of a 100-degree battery pack will basically be within 40,000 yuan.

In comparison, just a year ago, the price of lithium iron phosphate was still maintained at about 0.9 yuan/Wh, and a 100-degree battery pack was about 90,000 yuan.

You must know that the current 100-degree battery pack has a battery life of about 500-700 kilometers, and pure electric models with such endurance performance are generally priced at more than 200,000 yuan. If the previous battery accounted for 40% of the cost of the vehicle, the cost of the next 500-700 kilometers of models will come to about 100,000.

For a long time, there are two main factors affecting battery prices, one is technological innovation, and the other is the cost of raw materials.

Regarding the former, there has been no substantial breakthrough in battery technology for many years. Then the answer is obvious, the root cause of the collapse in battery prices is the significant decline in the cost of its raw materials.

The core of electric vehicles is the power battery, and the core of the power battery is lithium.

In the past few years, the new energy vehicle industry has entered the explosive stage, the lithium battery market has grown rapidly, the demand for lithium carbonate has increased significantly, and the capital has started to speculate from the source of the industry, resulting in soaring lithium prices and sharp rises in the short term.

After entering 2023, due to oversupply in the market and slowing market growth, lithium prices have turned around and entered a plummeting stage.

According to the data of domestic professional institutions Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network and Xinchun Lithium Battery, on the last trading day of 2023, the domestic median spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fallen to 101,000 yuan/ton, and the lowest price has fallen below 100,000 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of 522,500 yuan/ton on the last trading day of 2022, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2023 will drop by 80.67%.

Source: China Merchants Futures

The decline in lithium prices has led to a decline in the cost of lithium batteries, which is good news for battery manufacturers such as CATL, and a huge positive for downstream car companies.

The price of the car is fragmented

In 2022, when lithium prices are high, the high cost of batteries has made car companies complain.

At the 2022 World Power Battery Conference, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, publicly said: "At present, new energy OEMs other than Tesla are losing money, and the cost of power batteries has accounted for 40%-60% of the cost of the whole vehicle, and it is still increasing.

With the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices in 2023, car companies are no longer shouting about pressure. In addition, car companies have a certain amount of room to operate, such as being able to maintain market competitiveness by significantly reducing prices in price wars.

However, this is where people feel "disconnected".

In the past year, many car companies have been involved in price wars, and the price of electric cars has indeed fallen significantly.

In the case of Tesla, the price of its main models will continue to be lowered in 2023, with a maximum reduction of 60,000 yuan. Including BYD's Han EV, the 605KM premium model will need about 240,000 units at the beginning of 2023, but by the end of 2023, it will be about 210,000 units. In addition to the above two, the decline in the products of the new power camp is even more exaggerated.

However, while cutting prices, car companies are also constantly pushing up prices, such as Ideal Banner's MEGA and NIO's ET9...... There are more and more trains that cost more than 500,000 yuan.

Source: NIO's official website

I can deeply feel that unlike the period of high battery costs, car companies at that time could also blame the high price on the upstream of the industry, and now car companies have lost this rhetoric, but it does not seem to prevent them from piling up product prices, and the current premium direction of car companies is the so-called "intelligent".

At present, the vehicle-machine system and autonomous driving have become the core elements of the premium of car companies. Indeed, with the development of intelligent technology, intelligence will become one of the core competitiveness of vehicle manufacturing.

The problem is that at present, almost all car companies on the market are promoting how leading their intelligent technology is, but in the actual application of consumers, they have not shown enough amazing side. Among them, some "intelligent" is suspected of false propaganda, and some "intelligent" may have a certain technical content, but it does not hit the pain points of consumers.

Asking consumers to pay for an ethereal, impractical and inapplicable "gimmick" at a high price will only bring negative results to car companies.

The market needs low-cost cars

Instead of blindly using "intelligence" to push up prices and strive for higher gross profits, it is better to lay out a new product line to occupy the low-end pure electric market with strong demand and increase market share.

At present, the field of pure electric vehicles below 100,000 is mainly based on mini cars, such as Wuling Hongguang miniEV, and short-range models such as Wuling Binguo.

The reason is not complicated, there are obvious shortcomings in the performance of pure electric vehicles within 100,000 yuan, most of the vehicles have a cruising range of only two or three hundred kilometers, and the maximum speed is about 100 kilometers per hour. On the other hand, a fuel car with a speed of less than 100,000 yuan can easily achieve a range of 500km and a top speed of more than 150. Because of this, consumers have always been hesitant and resistant to pure electric vehicle models within 100,000 yuan, so they have no choice but to choose fuel vehicles at the same price.

These facts also show that consumers have a strong demand for products within 100,000 yuan, and there are too few cost-effective pure electric models within 100,000 yuan.

Source: Wuling official website

Previously, because of the high cost and low profit of pure electric models within 100,000 yuan, which tested the cost control ability of car manufacturers, most car factories were reluctant to produce pure electric vehicles below 100,000 yuan. But now that the cost of batteries has dropped sharply, in the face of the low-end market with strong demand, car companies have every reason to incorporate the pure electric vehicle market within 100,000 into the product line and develop new products so that more consumers can afford electric vehicles.

Zinc Finance believes that such a path may be more suitable for the new power car companies in a worrying situation.

Through a mature supply chain, it is not difficult for new car companies to create a cost-effective A-class pure electric vehicle. If we can rely on such a price and product strength, I believe that it will be quickly recognized by consumers under the huge market demand.

Of course, the business model of small profits and quick turnover may leave consumers with a low-end brand image, which is not conducive to the impact on the high-end market in the future, but in the current market environment, it is obviously much more important for new car companies to "survive" than to focus on the future.

2023 is the year when new energy vehicles start the knockout competition, and WM has unfortunately become the first player to go down.

In the blink of an eye to 2024, with the sharp decline in battery costs and the slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales, the entire industry will only become more and more involuted.

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