$80 billion evaporated overnight! Tesla "gave up" high growth

Tesla's stock price, which struggled to hand over its 2023 "report card", plummeted.

On January 25, local time, Tesla's stock price closed down 12.13%, and the price of a single share fell from $207.83 in the previous trading day to $182.63, the largest single-day decline in a year, and the market value evaporated by $80 billion overnight.

This is obviously a direct result of the performance falling short of expectations, and the day before the stock price plummeted, Tesla released its fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial reports.

After a year-long "price war" around the world, Tesla completed the previously set target of 1.8 million with a total annual delivery of 1.8086 million vehicles, and its profit situation has also become the focus of market attention.

In 2023, Tesla's gross profit margin, automobile business growth rate and other indicators are lower than market expectations, and it may be difficult to continue performance growth in the future only by price reduction. Tesla executives even bluntly stated that growth in 2024 will be lower. After the earnings call, Citigroup, UBS, Wells Fargo and many other institutions have lowered their Tesla price targets.

Single-quarter net profit plummeted by 39%

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Tesla delivered 484,500 vehicles, setting a new single-quarter high, on the basis of which single-quarter revenue was $25.167 billion, an increase of 3% year-on-year, but the gross profit margin hit a new low of only 17.6%.

The increase in sales but the decline in gross margin is the result of Tesla's aggressive promotion around the world. In the first three quarters of last year, Tesla's gross profit margin was 19.34%, 18.19%, and 17.89% respectively, and the continued decline in profitability caused investors to worry.

Wall Street analysts previously predicted that the company's gross profit margin in the fourth quarter may recover as the cost of battery raw materials decreases. Since 2023, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, which is the main raw material for power batteries, has experienced a sharp decline, and the price decline is conducive to the profit growth of electric vehicle companies. At the same time, Tesla continued to optimize its cost control capabilities in the fourth quarter, and the cost per vehicle has fallen to nearly $36,000, which the company said is "approaching the natural limit of cost reduction."

Even so, Tesla's gross profit margin in the fourth quarter fell further to 17.6%, below market expectations and hit a new single-quarter low since 2019, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders was $2.485 billion, down 39% year-on-year.

Combined with the annual delivery situation and financial data, Tesla will deliver a total of 1,808,600 new vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and completed the previous annual target of 1.8 million vehicles, but the price reduction sprint has caused the company's profitability to decline significantly.

Tesla's total revenue in 2023 will be US$96.773 billion, an increase of 19% year-on-year, gross profit margin will be 18.2%, down 7.35 percentage points year-on-year, falling below the benchmark of 20%, hitting a new low in the past four years, and net profit will be US$15 billion, an increase of 19% over the previous year, while non-GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders will be US$10.882 billion, down 23% year-on-year.

In terms of cash flow, net cash from operating activities decreased by 10% to US$13.256 billion last year. At the end of last year, the company's free cash flow was approximately $4.4 billion, down 42% year-over-year, and cash and cash equivalents and investments totaled $29.094 billion.

The growth rate of the automotive business has slowed

In addition to gross margin, the slowdown in revenue growth of Tesla's Motors business is also noteworthy.

On the premise that the number of car deliveries in the fourth quarter of last year hit a new high, Tesla's car business revenue increased by only 1%, which also worried investors that it may be difficult to maintain revenue growth in the future by relying on promotional price reductions.

The company's automotive business revenue in 2023 will be 82.419 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15%, ending the high growth of more than 73% and 51% in the previous two years. For Tesla, the automotive business accounted for 85%, accounting for the largest but slowest growth, energy revenue last year was $6.035 billion, up 54% year-on-year, and service and other revenue was $8.319 billion, up 37% year-on-year.

On the earnings call following the earnings release, investors asked if the company has plans to grow at a compound growth rate of 50% in 2024 or 2025. Tesla has traditionally set an annual growth rate of around 50%, but this time it did not disclose its 2024 car sales target, which is extremely rare.

The company's CFO admitted, "Tesla's car sales growth is expected to be low in 2024, the company's previous growth is based on the Model 3 and Model Y, and future growth will rely on the next generation of vehicle platforms." ”

The next generation of cars mentioned here will be more affordable, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed that the next generation of models will be produced at the Texas factory in the second half of 2025 or the end of 2025.

In 2023, a total of more than 1.739 million Model 3 and Model Y will be delivered, of which more than 1.2 million Model Y will be delivered, completing Musk's previous product goal of "the world's best-selling car, not limited to electric vehicles". In contrast, the growth of its two high-end models was slow, with the cumulative delivery of Model S and Model X 68,900 units for the year, a year-on-year increase of 3%.

In terms of global sales, Tesla's top three markets are North America, China and Europe.

Twitter analysts pointed out that Tesla is facing very strong competition in the Chinese market. According to the retail ranking of new energy manufacturers from January to December 2023 released by the Passenger Car Association, Tesla's total retail sales were 603,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%, ranking second with a market share of 7.8%, while BYD ranked first with more than 2.7 million sales and a market share of 35%. In addition, the sales growth rate of GAC Aion, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, Li Auto and Great Wall Motor, which are in the top 10 in terms of sales, has also surpassed Tesla.

In the earnings conference call, Musk did not hesitate to appreciate Chinese car companies. He believes that Chinese car companies are the most competitive in the world, and they will also achieve extraordinary results outside of China, "If there are no trade barriers, Chinese car companies can kill most of the other car companies in the world."

For Japan, the world's third-largest car market, Musk believes that Tesla's market share in Japan is still very low, and expects that "it should at least have a market share comparable to non-Japanese automakers such as Mercedes or BMW."

Continue to seek to reduce costs and increase efficiency

Tesla said that in 2024, it will continue to increase production, invest in future growth, and look for ways to further reduce costs and improve efficiency.

Musk believes that Tesla is not only a car company, but also a technology company, and before the new generation of "affordable cars" is available, the progress of "future technologies" such as artificial intelligence, autonomous driving and robots has become the focus of investors' attention.

Musk is currently seeking more than 25% of the company's voting control and has expressed confidence in leading Tesla to become an artificial intelligence giant. According to Musk's previous vision of "selling cars at zero profit and making money from software", the fully autonomous driving business (FSD) is regarded as one of the company's main sources of revenue in the future.

According to the financial report, FSDBeta (beta version) completed the latest version iteration in the fourth quarter of last year, with a cumulative mileage of more than 700 million kilometers by the end of 2023. FSDBeta is currently only available in North America, with a subscription rate of about 25%, and Tesla lowered the price of its North American FSD software from $15,000 to $12,000 in September last year.

It is also worth paying attention to the new model Cybertruck (electric pickup truck), which opened the first deliveries in December last year, which Musk hailed as Tesla's best product and has received more than 2 million orders.

The Cybertruck will begin its tour in China at the end of January, with eight electric pickup trucks unveiled in eight cities, but the company said it will not be able to test drive the show and it remains to be seen when it will be delivered.

Reporter Water Hibiscus

Edited by Wang Ke

Editor-in-charge: Sun Xiao

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body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{ background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .4 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, 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#fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body: not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([ data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1);-weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}