#头条创作挑战赛#
The time came to the evening of January 23, the 109th day of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the 699th day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
At present, the two conflicts between Russia, Ukraine and Pakistan have not only increased significantly, but also inevitably heated up: in this context, the position of the United States and Europe is very delicate, and Ukraine is facing a more severe test.
The Russian Aerospace Forces launched a new round of air strikes: 13 bombers took off, and violent explosions occurred in many places in Ukraine
As expected, the Ukrainian army's shelling of the market in the Donetsk community, resulting in the death of 28 people, still led to an escalation of the situation!
On January 22, local time, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Donetsk leader Pushilin said that the latest data showed that the Ukrainian army shelled the market in the Czech Stiriskk community of Donetsk on the morning of the 21st, killing 28 people and injuring 30 residents of the region.
Subsequently, Pushilin declared the 22nd a day of mourning for the victims of the aggression of the Ukrainian army against civilians. For its part, the Kremlin issued an important statement: Moscow strongly condemns the attack on Donetsk by Kyiv, and the special military operation will continue to protect the population from the attack.
Obviously, this is a big deal.
And it is, and it is.
On the evening of January 22, local time, Russia has already launched a retaliatory counterattack!
It is reported that in the Mirnograd region of Donetsk, Russian missiles successfully destroyed the temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian 110th brigade, resulting in 16 dead and 20 missing (a large number of soldiers were buried under the rubble, life and death unknown)
And then, on the morning of January 23, local time, according to the Russian front-line military channel, many places in Ukraine were attacked by Russian missiles, causing air defense sirens to sound throughout the country.
So far, violent explosions have occurred in Kyiv, Pavlograd in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Shostka and Kharkiv in Sumy Oblast, and many explosions have occurred in some areas.
At present, a large number of videos and photos of the explosion at the scene have begun to flow out on the Internet, all of which show: this time, Ukraine's losses are likely not small!
What's more, on January 8, Ukraine's air defense interception rate suddenly plummeted: anyone with a discerning eye knows that Ukraine's air defense has been greatly weakened. It may even be on the verge of exhaustion.
In other words, this time, it is also difficult for Ukraine's air defense interception rate to improve.
On January 8, Ukraine's air defense interception rate suddenly plummeted to 44%, and the Dagger missile interception plummeted to 0%
So, is this view correct?
At the moment, the command of the Ukrainian Air Force has reported that 21 of the 41 missiles were shot down - that is, this time, the total interception rate is 48.8%.
The details are as follows:
On the night of January 23, 2024, the enemy launched a joint missile attack on Ukraine, dispatching a total of 13 bombers and launching a total of 41 missiles of various types (including cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, aviation missiles and anti-aircraft missiles), with the focus on Kyiv and Khalekiv.
It is significant that 21 enemy missiles were destroyed.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that the Kharkiv authorities confirmed that parts of the city are already in a state of lack of electricity and water. Residents of Kharkiv heard at least five explosions today
This, of course, is the statement of the Ukrainian side.
It cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian military's war report may be more or less doped with water
At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian armed forces carried out collective high-precision strikes on targets of Ukraine's military-industrial complex producing missiles, ammunition and explosives on Tuesday morning. All designated targets were destroyed.
So, in the face of such a situation, how should the United States and the West and Ukraine respond?
Second, the position of the United States and Europe is very delicate: the Middle East is the basic position of the United States
Objectively speaking, for Ukraine and some European countries, it is natural to hope that the conflict in the Middle East can be ended as soon as possible in order to better deal with the situation in Eastern Europe.
However, it is an incomparably realistic fact: the Middle East is the basic position of the United States.
On January 19, local time, according to the Jerusalem Post, EU diplomatic chief Borrell publicly accused Israel of funding the establishment of Hamas in order to weaken the Palestinian Authority.
Today, EU diplomatic chief Josep Borrell began to say: "Let's start talking about a two-state solution." ”
However, it is intriguing that Borrell announced after the meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels that EU countries agreed to take military action in the Red Sea: EU countries have reached a political agreement in principle that they will carry out military action to ensure the safety of merchant ships in the Red Sea.
At the same time, according to a statement issued by the US Central Command, the United States and Britain have jointly launched a new round of air strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
U.S. Central Command forces, along with British armed forces, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, carried out strikes on eight Houthi targets in Yemen's Houthi-controlled areas, the statement said.
And according to the American media "CNN", this marks the beginning of the "Poseidon Archer" operation, which indicates a more organized and possibly longer-term military operation by the United States in Yemen. ️
To this, Yemeni Houthi military spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Salia quickly responded:
"The US-British coalition carried out 18 airstrikes on Yemen in the early hours of this morning, including 12 in Sana'a province, 3 in Hodeidah, 2 in Taiz and 1 in al-Bayda.
The Yemeni armed forces confirmed that they would respond to and punish the attack. ”
In addition, it is worth mentioning that the IDF spokesman said on the 23rd that 21 Israeli reserve soldiers were killed in a battle in the central Gaza Strip on the 22nd.
According to Israeli media statistics, this is the highest single-day death toll of Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
However, in fact, this is still a preliminary statistic, and the matter may be more serious - Hebrew Channel 12 said: "We are facing a catastrophe, and the army has lost more than 50 people in the fighting in the Gaza Strip today." ”
At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in the face of such a grim situation, still reiterated: "We will not stop fighting until we win absolutely victory." ”
Obviously, in the face of such a complex and treacherous situation in the Middle East, it seems that the United States has clearly adopted a strategy of prioritizing Israel - as for Ukraine, the US authorities will certainly not say anything about giving up, but the energy and military power are always limited, and Ukraine needs to understand this
In addition, as recently as January 23, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: "We do not see Russia as a direct threat to any ally, and our idea is to prevent a possible attack."
In other words, Ukraine should tap more potential from itself in order to find a way to stabilize the front line.
So, can Ukraine really do it?
3. German military expert: The situation in Avdiivka has deteriorated rapidly
On January 23, local time, Julian, a German military expert who is widely regarded as pro-Ukraine by the outside world, made a bombshell comment on the situation in Ukraine:
- After the breakthrough of Russian troops south of Avadiivka, another quarter of the city has been taken over by invading forces. During the advance, some Ukrainian units were cut off and subsequently captured.
The situation is very reminiscent of Bakhmut.
And this can't help but remind people of the German newspaper "Bild" on May 18 last year, when the German newspaper Bild claimed that Bakhmut was about to fall, and the result was as if it had opened the light - on May 20, Wagner officially announced full control of Bakhmut......
So, in the next two months, will Ukraine be able to hold the strategic town of Avadiivka?
At the moment, this may need to be a big problem.
Because, manpower and ammunition have become Ukraine's fatal shortcomings.
On the evening of January 22, local time, according to front-line sources, according to French sources, in early January, during the next meeting between the Ukrainian delegation and the US military in the Ramstein format, the two sides exchanged views on the current military situation in Ukraine: the core of which is war damage and mobilization.
The source noted that as of the end of December last year, the United States estimated that Ukraine's losses were about 450,000-470,000 people.
And according to the data provided by the Ukrainian side, by the end of November last year alone, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 923,500 people, of which 548,000 were killed - according to the Ukrainian side, a significant part of the irretrievable losses occurred as a result of the fighting around Bakhmut, the summer offensive and the attacks of the Russian Aerospace Forces and ground forces on areas where reserves are concentrated.
At present, this news has not been officially confirmed.
In fact, war losses have always been highly classified by both Russia and Ukraine, and both sides hardly mention their losses
Of course, paper can't contain fire after all, and the outside world can actually make a rough assessment through obituaries, the size of the cemetery, and so on.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that after almost two years of fighting, especially since Ukraine in September, Ukraine and the United States and the West have undergone subtle changes on this issue.
Like what:
In mid-May 2023, EU national intelligence reported that Ukraine had lost less than 15,000 soldiers.
But in September, European parliamentarian Daly broke the news in front of the NATO secretary general in parliament: 500,000 Ukrainian troops had died.
As of January 7, 24, the former prosecutor of Ukraine Lutsenko claimed that up to now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost 500,000 people, and the monthly losses are about 30,000.
In addition, as early as July 10, 2022, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov revealed in his first interview with the British newspaper The Times that Ukraine is amassing a combat force of more than 1 million people equipped with Western weapons to recover the southern territories from Russia.
Recently, according to a number of media reports, Ukraine is launching a new round of large-scale mobilization, with a number of 450,000 to 500,000 people, but neither side of Zelensky Zaluzhny is willing to take responsibility for the order, and has passed the buck to each other.
It has been pointed out that there are various indications that against the background of Russia's obvious air superiority and artillery superiority, Ukraine has been forced to counterattack in advance many times, which is actually debatable.
Moreover, for a long time, the Ukrainian army has given people a sense of immediacy that focuses too much on the international perspective, that is, on the role of public opinion, which may lead to Ukraine being in a state of blind offensive in many cases.
In other words, under the superposition of various factors, it is not unbelievable that the Ukrainian army is so horrific and has war losses.
epilogue
There are all kinds of signs that it may be difficult for Ukraine to rewrite the situation of the war. And in this case, perhaps it is more in Ukraine's interests to start Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in a timely manner.
In short, an early end to the conflict is expected.