In 2018, the United States launched a trade war, which was a precursor to a century of changes, in December 2020, the sudden epidemic exacerbated the evolution of the world situation, at the end of February 2022, Putin announced the start of a special military operation, which can be regarded as the official beginning of the turning point of the era, and on October 7, 2023, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict suddenly broke out, which further promoted the evolution of the turning point of the times........ , then, what about 2024, maybe the year of the decisive battle!
#头条创作挑战赛#
The time came to the late night of January 24, the 110th day of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the 700th day of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Although the sudden crash of the Il-76 large Russian transport plane at 11 o'clock Moscow time on the same day has been confirmed, the public opinion of the incident has become more and more intense, and there is even a sense of déjà vu that a huge storm is brewing.
So when people carefully comb through this blockbuster incident that is destined to go down in history, they feel more and more foggy!
On January 24, CCTV News: An Il-76 transport plane crashed in Belgoro Oblast, Russia, with 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers on board
1. All 74 people on board the Russian crashed transport plane were killed: A huge storm may be brewing, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have officially kicked off the decisive battle
Follow my old fans, it is not difficult to find that in terms of the analysis and judgment of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, I rarely use the words "Russia and Ukraine have ushered in a major turning point".
Because, in my personal opinion, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, sudden and heavy events have emerged one after another: some things seemed big at the time, but the subsequent development was not shocking, and there are also some major events that everyone knows and have far-reaching impact, but they are destined to have no truth, such as the Bucha incident and the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines...... ，
In the final analysis, the Russia-Ukraine war is a typical hybrid war related to the global geopolitical landscape: in this context, intrigues and tricks are destined to emerge one after another, and the situation of the war is becoming more and more confusing.
Okay, back to the point.
So, what impact does this sudden blockbuster incident have on the situation between Russia and Ukraine? The latest three important news may have revealed the mystery: In fact, there is no need to question or entangle whether the people on board are Russian soldiers or citizens, or Ukrainian captured soldiers.
Because the more important thing has become - who concocted this tragedy and sabotaged this hard-fought prisoner exchange negotiation!
And, next, where is the Russian-Ukrainian war going!
As Julian Ropke, a German expert who has always been pro-Ukraine, commented - "Sadly, those Ukrainian soldiers will never be able to return home." Whenever, wherever, and by whom they were killed. ”
In addition, for the outside world, in addition to lamenting the cruelty of the war, what is more important is the impact of this sudden blockbuster incident on the war situation.
In short, as of now, as soon as the words fell, the Russian side has indeed released the list of victims - the list of 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war on Il-76 has been released, and the youngest one was born in 2002. And, 12 of the prisoners of war were members of the Azov Battalion, having previously been captured in the Battle of Mariupol.
Subsequently, on the Ukrainian side, the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Andrei Yusov, admitted after a long silence that Russia and Ukraine were originally scheduled to exchange prisoners today, but it has not yet taken place, and the Ukrainian side is verifying the information about the death of Ukrainian prisoners of war in a plane crash released by the Russian side.
In an interview with Reuters, Podolyak, a senior adviser to the Ukrainian president, declined to comment on the downed Russian Il-76 transport plane and told the agency that it needed time to clarify the information. But he didn't say exactly how long it would take - it seems to be an attempt to downplay the huge impact of the incident through time through cold treatment tactics!
The Coordination Command for the Issue of Prisoners of War in Ukraine said that it could neither confirm nor deny the claims of the Russian Ministry of Defense that the Il-76 transport plane that crashed in Belgorod Oblast contained Ukrainian prisoners of war. They are collecting and analyzing all the information and are calling to wait for an official statement.
At the same time, after learning that there were Ukrainian prisoners on the transport plane, a number of Ukrainian media changed their tunes, that is, modified or deleted previous reports.
"Ukrainska Pravda" shut down the website and claimed that it was due to a hacker attack. However, before that, it first claimed that the Il-76 plane was shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and then immediately deleted all the content about the downed plane, and changed its words like this: The Russian transport plane crashed, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has not yet confirmed that the plane was hit by the Ukrainian army.
And Ukraine's largest military TG channel "Trukha" has taken a similar approach.
Two hours ago, it announced that "the Ukrainian army shot down the Russian 76 military plane", which quickly caused cheers from many Ukrainian netizens
However, when the news came out that "the plane was filled with Ukrainian prisoners of war", the Truha channel closed the comment section
And the latest news shows that preparations have begun for the recognition that "the planes are all Ukrainian prisoners of war".
And this is just a microcosm of many Ukrainian media outlets.
Even more striking is the fact that at the moment, a small number of Ukrainian media are beginning to openly accuse the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For example, the Ukrainian channel "rezident_ua".
At the same time, the RBC Ukraine website, for example, not only did not dare to admit that there were Ukrainian prisoners of war on the plane, but now they do not even dare to claim the "shot down" - the headline and the content of the article emphasize that it was a crash.
This is clearly downplaying the death of Ukrainian prisoners of war and hinting at the truth of the incident or the mishandling of the Russian aircraft crew
In addition, it is worth mentioning that Russia's reaction is equally intriguing.
Russian State Duma Chairman Volodin announced that the State Duma will issue a question to the United States and Germany about the Il-76 disaster.
Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the defense committee of the Russian State Duma, issued a soul torture question at a meeting of the State Duma -
"The Ukrainian leadership is well aware of the upcoming exchange and the means of transporting prisoners of war to their location, what kind of negotiations can be carried out with this plane shot down by three Patriot or IRIS-T missiles, eliminating these own citizens, their own soldiers, who are willing to return to Ukraine?
Obviously, these words are not only for Russia, but also for Ukraine, the United States and the West, as well as other countries.
Volodin
And the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev was blunt: the destruction of the Il-76 aircraft was the result of an internal political struggle among the neo-Nazi elites in Kyiv. It's a pig trough war......
Moreover, he also gave important judgments:
It will only get worse in the future.
Because they will also easily kill their own servicemen and prisoners of war in order to maintain their power, which they learned from the so-called "Ukrainian insurgent army" during the Soviet era 70 years ago.
They don't have a bottom line.
After all, the most important thing is power and money.
As for the Russian Ministry of Defense, it has issued a statement: the Il-76 was hit by an anti-aircraft missile system of the Ukrainian Air Force from the settlement of Liptsy, Kharkiv Oblast. Russian Air Force radar observed the launch of two missiles from Ukraine.
Some analysts have pointed out that, on the whole:
It is clear that Russia is paying a heavy price for the loss of Kharkiv in the fall of 2022, not only by the frequent attacks on its border areas, but more importantly, by the fact that Russia is likely to lose the ability to end the war in a short time.
It can be said that this incident is likely to impact the prestige of Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense, and Russia is already facing a dilemma, and it is likely that it will need to make a blockbuster decision that the long-term pain is better than the short-term pain.
As for the Ukrainian political game, it is likely that it will be more intense: the military real power faction represented by Zaluzhny, the intelligence services represented by Budanov, and the civilian clique led by Zelensky's team are likely to launch a thrilling power struggle!
Coupled with the will of NATO and the European Union, represented by the United States, Britain, Germany and France, to be deeply involved in the internal situation in Ukraine, it is destined to be complicated and unpredictable!
The situation in Ukraine may be on the verge of spiraling out of control.
So, is this view correct?
2. Russia and Ukraine have ushered in a major turning point: the "North Korea model" is moving away, and the possibility of the "three-way model" has begun to increase significantly
On January 23, local time, according to the "Asia Times", in recent months, the United States and the European Union are formulating a new Ukraine policy to deal with the new reality that Ukraine will lose the war and may need to evacuate Kyiv.
At the moment, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Budanov will be appointed commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and at the same time move the capital of Ukraine to Lviv.
It is clear that this report does not believe the revelations of the Russian media a few days ago - Zelensky has made a major decision to remove the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, from his post.
In other words, it is likely to be the source of revelations from Western journalists or experts.
In fact, it is.
Even, in this current review article, it gives even more amazing details:
According to the report, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may soon dismiss the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny, on the grounds that the fighting situation in Avadiivka is unfavorable, and support the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Budanov to the post.
As the war situation changes, the U.S. government is working on a new set of policies to deal with the war in Ukraine, mainly to address the following three practical needs:
The first is to ensure that the US Congress agrees to continue to pay for the continued consumption of weapons and ammunition and military spending of the Ukrainian army, but the newspaper believes that the military defeat may make it more difficult for Congress to agree to pay for it, so the most likely approach for Biden is to blame Congress and the Republican Party for Ukraine's military defeat.
The second is to ensure that a pro-Western Ukrainian government can continue to function and that there must be no political collapse such as a coup d'état. In order to ensure this demand, the United States will demand that Ukraine move its capital to Lviv and strengthen its control over Budanov by moving the capital.
The third is to distance Russia from Europe, that is, to prevent Russia from directly negotiating and concluding relevant "coexistence" agreements with European countries, the key player in which is Germany, which will not currently engage in a full-fledged dialogue with Russia, but not necessarily after that.
Obviously, today the United States and the West and Ukraine are preparing for the worst!
It can be considered - the United States and the West, against the backdrop of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, have once again developed an amazing plan.
Even, it can be said that the "North Korean model" is moving away from it, and the possibility of the "three-way model" is beginning to increase significantly.
In other words, once this poisonous plan is successfully implemented, the outside world's expectations for a three-year end to the war are likely to come to naught – and the war will likely last for five years, if not longer.
The final outcome may be as the situation map circulated on the Western Internet before:
Russia has had to make the decision to launch a more fierce offensive after the long-term pain is better than the short-term pain, while Ukraine, after completing the mission of weakening Russia, that is, when the military size and military potential are almost squandered, the fate of the country depends entirely on the results of the extreme game between Russia and the United States.
- At that time, Russia will take eight states, some of which will serve as forward buffers;
The four Eastern European countries represent the will of the EU to recover the historical territory, which is also a good explanation for the EU.
As for Kyiv, it is likely to join NATO in disguise, that is, to receive security guarantees from the 31 NATO countries.
Of course, this is just reasonable speculation, and things may not be that bad.
epilogue
By all indications, 2024 is a very critical year: some kind of change is brewing in global geopolitics around the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US election.
In short, an early end to the conflict is expected.