[Editor's note] This article is authorized by the author, "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively and originally, reprinted from the public account "Muzhiye", there are many wonderful contents, welcome to pay attention.
More precisely, to make fewer mistakes, it is important to avoid making strategic mistakes.
At the beginning of the year, there were fights everywhere, and North Korea also tested underwater nuclear weapons today, but everyone paid more attention to the Red Sea, forgetting that the Russian-Ukrainian war is currently the most important war in the world, and the war is spreading from it.
At the moment, it is the saddest winter in Ukraine.
Hell isn't actually in any other dimension, it's on this earth, but you don't see it.
The war has been going on for almost two years, and now there is no end in sight, and there are constantly people who predict that "the war is almost over", and the end is all imagined in the minds of well-fed people.
On the one hand, it represents the bet of the so-called "liberal democracy" system of the entire West, and on the other, represents the last dignity of the Russian nation, which no one can afford to lose.
Therefore, it is destined to stop and stop, and even if it is said to stop, it is only a stopgap measure until a huge war really destroys one side.
Putin's current mobilization is not only for Ukraine, but also for preparing for a direct war with NATO.
War is the long of Russia and the short of Europe.
The Middle East has succeeded in attracting the firepower of the United States, and the United States is also "involuntarily involved".
I'm writing today because I want to review it, because details often make everyone understand the details that are not known.
On December 29, 2021, when I wrote that Russia might not be able to escape World War I, it was not difficult to judge at all, it was based on the public intelligence collection and analysis of the United States.
Because the United States, based on the manufacturing situation of Russian arsenals, judged that Russia was preparing for a medium-scale war.
This is the technological superiority of the United States, which no one can compare.
Now, based on the development of UAVs, we will know one result:
There will be no secrets in the Taiwan Strait.
Why? Because all transfers are being monitored.
Unless there is an earthquake or drill to get to the island, any other raid may not exist.
The United States is right, so what is its countermeasure?
Its countermeasure is to provide logistical support for Zelensky's escape.
So, strategically, it didn't think at all at first to go to war with Russia, although it was trained on the front line for seven years.
And what mistakes did Russia make? Military adventurism and misassessment of its own strength.
When Zelensky made a strategic decision to resist, he was right.
However, as the war progressed, he also had an erroneous assessment of the war, to the point of being very arrogant, causing discontent among the Allies, as well as an intensification of internal contradictions.
There were two battles, Bakhmut and last summer's counteroffensive, which cost Ukraine a great deal of good.
And Russia's war potential is infinitely stimulated, constantly adjusted, and at present, UAVs and electronic warfare have turned from the weakest to a long board.
The wartime economy and industry had fully adapted, and the people had embraced it.
November is the time when the Russian army has made progress on multiple fronts, and Putin has finally waited for the possibility of allies coming to power again.
And the United States, which everyone thought was "winning", is now unable to supply even a single shell, and has to look to South Korea to buy it.
In the album of the Russian-Ukrainian war, I repeatedly mentioned one point:
We should never overestimate or underestimate the capabilities of an independent and autonomous power.
This sentence is applicable to both China, the United States and Russia.
In fact, there is not so much of a big game of chess, and we all keep making mistakes, but war and great power games are not about how advanced technology, how much ammunition, and how much destructive power.
"In China, the United States and Russia, there are not so many big chess"
In the absence of any side with the strength to completely reduce the dimensionality of the strike, the ultimate ratio is endurance.
And compared to endurance, no one can compare to China.
Therefore, I have always said that China can win the final victory, but it is a question of how much it will cost, who will it cost, and whether it is worth it.
The United States is not so godly, it can plan some things, but it may not always be successful.
But the United States will not decline so quickly, don't always think that it will collapse tomorrow, in fact, although it is stubborn and going downhill, it is very resilient and dynamic.
So, the only thing we can do is to make as few mistakes as possible, especially:
Don't make strategic mistakes.
As long as China and the United States make a mistake, it may become a disaster that changes the fortunes of the country.
As for what is a strategic mistake, you can look at the current Red Sea.
It's best not to think about finishing the battle.
Although we may end up being drawn into a conflict, until then, we can do something.
If you can't go to war, you don't want it. At the same time, don't cause trouble, don't be afraid of things.
There is no one who is a sure winner, no one is a certain loser, and the most important thing is the transformation of potential.
The most important thing is to be realistic.
We are already in the midst of a medium-sized comprehensive war, and if we are not aware of this premise, we will inevitably be affected by its effects in the near future.
Another day, I would like to write about the X virus discussed in Davos, because since public opinion has paved the way, it means that it is not far off, and I don't know if we are prepared or not, and we should not take it seriously.
Because, disasters are always stacked and won't give you much respite.