Analysis of the Asian Cup qualification: 4 teams qualified in advance, 4 teams basically qualified, and the national football team can also qualify with two points

In the second round of the Asian Cup group stage, Group E played two more rounds, South Korea drew 2:2 with Jordan, and Bahrain defeated Malaysia 1:0. With two games left in Group F in the second round of the group stage, four teams have already secured one round of qualification, and four more teams have basically qualified for the right to qualify. As for the national football team, with only two points in two rounds, even if it loses to Qatar in the final round, it has a chance to qualify as the second place in the group.

A total of 24 teams participated in this Asian Cup, divided into 6 groups, with 4 teams in each group playing a single round-robin match, and the top two teams in each group and the 4 best third-place teams qualified from the group and advanced to the 1/8 finals. After two rounds, Qatar in Group A, Australia in Group B, Iran in Group C and Iraq in Group D have already secured qualification from the group.

In Group A, in addition to Qatar ranking first in the group with 6 points, the national football team ranking second in the group with 2 points, Tajikistan ranking third in the group with 1 point, and Lebanon ranking fourth in the group with 1 point, these three teams have a chance to qualify in the final round. If the national football team defeats Qatar in the final round, then 5 points will ensure the second place in the group and will definitely qualify, if it draws or loses to Qatar, then whether the national football team with 3 or 2 points can qualify depends on the result of another game.

If the national football team draws or loses to Qatar, and the other game is decided, then the national football team will rank third in the group with 3 or 2 points, and will compare the results with the third place in the other 5 groups, and it is unlikely to qualify. In extreme cases, if the national football team loses 0:1 to Qatar and the other team draws 0:0, the national football team has two points with Tajikistan and the goal difference is minus 1, because Tajikistan gets a red card, the national football team can overtake Tajikistan with fair play points, so as to rank second in the group with two points in three games.

Since the national football team is really unlikely to win against Qatar, the third-place team in this group is likely to only have 3 or even 2 points, and it is difficult to compare the results with the third-place teams in other groups. The predicted group positions are Qatar, Tajikistan, China and Lebanon.

In Group B, Australia won all two games and accumulated 6 points to qualify in advance, and will face Uzbekistan, the second group with 4 points in two rounds, in the final round. Uzbekistan's final round win or draw can ensure the group qualification, the current 3 goal difference, Syria goal difference is minus 1, there are 4 goal difference between the two teams, so even if Uzbekistan loses to Australia, and Syria defeats India, Uzbekistan will probably win the second place in the group; even if the goal difference is not as good as Syria, 4 points in hand will be very advantageous compared with the third place in the other group.

Syria ranks third in the group with 1 point from two games, India ranks fourth in the group with 0 points from two games, and from the strength of both sides and the performance of this cup, Syria is more likely to win, and is likely to rank third in the group with 4 points, and India is at the bottom of the group with 0 points. The group is predicted to be Australia, Uzbekistan, Syria and India.

The situation in Group C is very similar to Group B, Iran has won all two games and has six points to rank first in the group, and the United Arab Emirates has advanced to qualify, and the United Arab Emirates is second in the group with four points from two games, and Iran and the UAE will face each other directly in the final round. A win or draw against Iran in the final round of the UAE will ensure the second place in the group, even if they lose to Iran, due to the difference of 5 goals with Palestine, they are also very likely to finish second in the group, and in the worst case, the UAE loses to Iran by a large score, the goal difference is not as good as that of Palestine, but 4 points will also be very advantageous compared to the third place in the group.

Palestine ranks third in the group with 1 point, Hong Kong, China ranks fourth in the group with 0 points, and the two teams meet directly in the final round, if Palestine wins, 4 points may rank second in the group, and there is a high probability that it will rank third in the group; if it draws, Palestine ranks third in the group with 2 points; if it loses, Hong Kong, China ranks third in the group with 3 points. Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and Palestine are predicted to be the final winners of the group.

In Group D, Iraq topped the group with six points from two wins, and since Japan and Indonesia, who currently have three points, have lost to Iraq, Iraq has secured the top spot in the group regardless of the final round result. Japan will face Indonesia in the final round, and from the analysis of the strength of the two teams, Japan has a very good chance of winning, and will rank second in the group with 6 points.

If Iraq wins or draws against Vietnam, Iraq will be top of the group with 9 or 7 points, Japan will be second in the group with 6 points, Indonesia will be third in the group with 3 points, and Vietnam will be at the bottom with 0 or 1 point. The final position of the forecast group is Iraq, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam.

In Group E, Jordan topped the group with 4 points, South Korea ranked second with 4 points, Bahrain ranked third with 3 points, and Malaysia ranked fourth with 0 points. In the final round, Jordan played Bahrain and South Korea played Malaysia. Judging from the strength of each team, South Korea has a good chance of beating Malaysia, South Korea may accumulate 7 points in the end, and Malaysia is likely to only have 0 points. As for Jordan and Bahrain, judging by their performance in this tournament, Jordan is clearly better than Bahrain.

So in the end, Jordan and South Korea are tied with 7 points, Bahrain is 3 points, and Malaysia is 0 points. The final place in this group is predicted to be Jordan, South Korea, Bahrain and Malaysia.

In Group F, Thailand currently tops the group with 3 points, Saudi Arabia is second with 3 points, and Oman and Kyrgyzstan are both at the bottom of the group with 0 points. Since there are still two rounds in this round, it is a little too early to discuss the qualification, but judging from the strength of the four teams, it is not a big problem for Saudi Arabia to get a place in the group. Oman will face Thailand in the second round, with the two teams battling it out for second place in the group. The final ranking of this group is predicted to be Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand and Kyrgyzstan.

Therefore, with the last two games in the second round of the group stage, the four teams of Qatar, Australia, Iran and Iraq have advanced to qualify, and the four teams of Uzbekistan, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and South Korea have basically qualified.

Note: The picture comes from the Internet.