Siakam trade, Pacers and Raptors trade review

The specific trading plan is as follows:

The Pacers sent Bruce Brown, Walla, three first-round picks to the Raptors and Siakam, a second-round pick.

The Pelicans sent guard Kira Lewis Jr. to the Raptors and a second-round pick to the Pacers.

The Raptors sent Siakam to the Pacers for three first-round picks, Bruce Brown, Jordan Walla and Kayla Lewis Jr.

According to follow-up reports, the Pacers sent out the 2024 first-rounder, the 2024 first-round pick (the worst among the Jazz/Rockets/Clippers/Thunder) and the 2026 top-four first-round picks.

Walker Rating: B+

Haliburton has his helper and the Pacers have their second leader - the "most surprising team of the season" finally has a chance to go from a "dark horse" to a real contender.

One might think that the Pacers are losing a bit of a game with Siakam, whose three-round rotation contract is about to expire, but this narrative is only from the most macro perspective, and in fact, if we dig a little deeper, we will find that this is not the case.

Let's start with the Pacers' chips.

A 2024 first-round pick comes from themselves — but the Pacers are currently 7th in the East and 12th in the league, and with Siakam and Haliburton returning from injury, the ranking could rise in the second half: the Pacers have little chance of falling out of the playoffs, which means that this first-round pick will not be a lottery pick (the first 14 picks), but probably a 20th pick, which belongs to the latter part of the first round.

Another 2024 first-rounder, the lowest pick among the Knights, Fire, Boats, and Thunders - Ship Mines are in the top half of the West this season, and the Jazz's recent momentum is obvious to all, and the worst Rockets can also rank 20th in the league, and this first-round pick may be around the middle of the first round.

These two first-round picks, one in the middle and one in the back — and considering that next year is an out-and-out "draft year," it's unlikely that these two first-round picks will actually translate into high-level instant combat power.

And what about the 2026 first-rounder? Two years later, Haliburton is 26 years old, Siakam is 31 years old, and Mathurin, Nesmith, Nembhard and Toppin will continue to grow as rookies – and as long as Haliburton is a top point guard, their record will not be much worse.

So, it looks like a "three-first-round Sika", but in fact, the best of the three first-round may only be in the middle of the first round, and it also comes from the young year of the draft - the actual value of the three together may not be comparable to the first round of the lottery at the far end.

If you look at the players that the Pacers have paid, you will feel even more that they have "earned" - Bruce Brown, a "mercenary" signed at a premium in the offseason, changed hands and became the league's top second-in-command Siakam, while the Pacers did not pay any more young players and instant combat power - Brown's single exchange for Siakam can be said to be an epic upgrade.

So why can't we give the Pacers an A when they don't have a lot of chips and complete a "full upgrade"?

The main reason is Siakam's contract extension - Siakam can reach a maximum contract extension of 5 years and 250 million in the summer, and the Raptors are unwilling to give this contract, which is also the source of disagreement between Siakam and the Raptors.

Since the Pacers spent three first-round rounds to trade to Sika, they must have reached an agreement with Sika on a contract extension - in the offseason, the Philadelphia 76ers were able to clear 40.9 million salary space, and since Sika gave a "contract extension commitment", it means that the Pacers' contract extension for Siakam must be greater than this number.

If it is Sika with an average salary of 40 million in 5 years, although it is longer but "acceptable", if it is Sika with an average salary of 50 million in 5 years, the "ceiling" of the Pacers is a bit locked.

Siakam does have a good compatibility with the Pacers - he is a [mid-to-high-prolific] scorer, with good offensive output in the frame, can make damage, can grab rebounds, both offense and defense, with or without the ball, and has a mid-range with the ball in one hand - his style of play is a perfect match for the Pacers, and his skills are very "complementary" to Haliburton and the Pacers.

However, no matter how good the "compatibility" is, it can't change the fact that Sika is not at the level of strength - he is only an Eastern Conference All-Star level player, and even now, Siakam is not in the top five in the league's second leader, and in five years? It is likely that he will not be able to count on both hands.

If the Pacers really give him 250 million for five years, then in the next five years, Haliburton + Siakam alone will occupy more than 100 million salary space every year - the top-level framework is basically locked, even if there are "big fish" in the future, it will be difficult for the Pacers to compete with other teams, and the Pacers are not a team that has always been willing to pay taxes - then their competition level is not destined to be very high.

The Pacers' idea of building a team looks a bit similar to that of the Nuggets and Bucks - as a small ball market, once there are high-level stars that can be obtained, they will quickly "take" them, and then try to "build sand into a tower" by digging and tinkering internally.

But the success of the Nuggets and the Bucks is inseparable from the relationship between the two "monsters" of Alphabet and Jokic - although Haliburton is strong, there seems to be a big gap from this level, and the accuracy of the puzzle selection of these two teams is even more difficult to replicate - even if the Pacers have a good eye, but the best puzzle pieces like Holiday , Gordon and Pope do not often appear, and Siakam is not as young as Murray and Middleton, which shortens their "window" a lot.

All in all, the Pacers have made a good "win now" reinforcement — but whether the future of this deal goes up or down will largely depend on what kind of contract extension they sign with Sika.

Raptors Rating: A-

Siakam's departure means the complete end of an era for the Raptors.

Although the value of the three first-round picks we gave from the Pacers above was not high, for the Raptors they still achieved a "timely stop-loss" and put the team on the right path to rebuild.

Siakam was set to expire in the summer, and the Raptors couldn't get both young players and draft picks as they had hoped, so they retreated to the next best - using OG to find the team that can give the most instant power in exchange for two young potential players, and using Sika to find the team that can give the most draft picks in exchange for three first-round picks, which can also be regarded as a "curve to save the country".

Another reason why the Raptors are "steady" with these three mid-to-late first-round picks is their current team structure:

Barnes has shown the potential to be the centerpiece of the team this season, his ball handling has improved, he is starting to be able to absorb more players, and the Raptors' priority for the next few years will be to continue to develop Barnes and try to transform him into a higher-level star — and for that, unlimited firing rights are important.

The Raptors now have a Quickley, an RJ Barrett, and a rookie with a high pick and Barnes to "grab the ball"?

On the inside, they have Poeltl, and they don't need to be strengthened much - the positions that need to be added the most may be point guards and "3-and-D" players - and the draft picks in the middle and late stages of the first round are perfect for "scouring" these players. (Of course, you can also trade it again)

On the player side, they got Bruce Brown through this trade - this deal did not create a trade freeze period, so they can continue to trade Bruce Brown in exchange for more draft picks, and Trent is also a target they can clean up - in this way, the Raptors may be equivalent to trading OG + Sika + Trent for two potential young players + 4 first-rounders + multiple second-rounders.

Considering these players are all out of contract, it's good to be able to get those benefits.

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