The probability of the national football team qualifying plummeted: 60% fell to 29%!

In the first two games of the group stage of the Asian Cup, the national football team drew 0-0 with Tajikistan, ranked 106th in the world, and drew 0-0 with Lebanon, ranked 107th in the world, with 0 goals and 0 wins in 180 minutes, and the performance was disappointing. In the final game of the group stage, the national football team will play against Qatar, and if the host does not "release the water", the national football team is likely to lose and go out.

What is the hope of the national football team to advance to the round of 16 of the Asian Cup? I believe that fans have already seen many versions of the analysis. The well-known football data agency website "World Football" uses big data analysis to calculate the probability of each team (including the national football team) qualifying for the Asian Cup.

Before the start of the Asian Cup, the website deduced the fate of the national football team: the probability of reaching the top 16 is 60.6%, and the probability of reaching the top 8 is 20.08%.

In the first game of the group stage, Qatar defeated Lebanon 3-0, and the national football team drew 0-0 with Tajikistan. At this time, the website is still optimistic about the prospects of the national football team, believing that the probability of the national football team reaching the top 16 is 60%, and the probability of reaching the top 8 is 19.04%.

However, when the national football team played another 0-0 draw against Lebanon, "world football" felt that something was wrong, thinking that the national football team had encountered very serious trouble, and lowered the probability of the national football team qualifying. The probability of the national football team reaching the top 16 fell to 29.44%, the probability of reaching the top 8 was 7.84%, the probability of reaching the top 4 was 1.96%, the probability of reaching the final was 0.52%, and the probability of winning the championship was 0.16%.

The probability of qualifying for the national football team has dropped to 29.44%, what is this concept? It is not as good as India (33.52% probability), and even less so as Vietnam (43.16%) and Syria (47.08%).

If the national football team fails to reach the round of 16 of the Asian Cup, it will be a disastrous ending.

The Asian Cup was expanded from 2019 to 24 teams, and in the 2019 Asian Cup, the national football team reached the top 8. In the 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2015 Asian Cups, the tournament size was 16 teams, and further back, in 1996 and 2000, there were 12 teams. Unable to enter the round of 16 of the Asian Cup is tantamount to creating the worst record in the history of the national football team and confirming the reputation of "the worst national football team in history".