Leverage in bursting ......

In the last two years, the levers have burst one after another.

First the developers, then the urban investment companies, the second-level subsidiaries of central state-owned enterprises, and finally the residents......

Recently, another Ponzi scam has exploded, Ding Yifeng.

The scale of assets involved is as high as 100 billion yuan, but there is no investment license in the mainland; he does not understand Western finance, but he is proficient in fortune-telling and fortune-telling; he is not strong in investment ability, but he has a super ability to fool;

I also issued an announcement to fool customers, which is a "huge success", "huge benefit", and "huge return......

The worst thing is that many people in Guangdong have sold their houses and borrowed a lot of business loans to invest in their families.

In the current environment, the risk of indiscriminate investment is extremely high, and if you increase leverage, how can leverage not break.

As long as the lever is increased, even if it does not explode, the lever will break.

Do you remember three years ago, in order to stimulate the economy, what was the hottest leverage?

At that time, the conditions given were very attractive, the threshold was low, and the enterprises would approve it; the supervision was loose, the money was loaned to you, and you could use it as you wanted; the interest rate was low, the mortgage interest rate was 6%, and the operating loan interest rate was 3%.

Moreover, it is "promised" that although the term of the operating loan is 3-5 years, it can basically be renewed, and "theoretically" it can be achieved for 10-30 years.

As a result, many people have made a decision that they will regret for the rest of their lives: replacing their housing loans with business loans.

This is also the reason why second-hand housing transactions were booming back then, but the scale of housing loans has been declining.

Now retribution has come.

According to the Daily Economic News, the appraised price of a house in Shenzhen has dropped from 6 million to more than 2 million.

What does that mean?

If you take out a business loan on this house, the amount of the loan will drop significantly, which means that you will have to add millions more "down payment" funds to the bank.

Moreover, this is not an isolated case, the appraisal price of houses in many communities in Shenzhen has been significantly reduced.

Why do banks drastically lower the appraised price of houses? Isn't this forcing people to cut off their mortgages and forcing people to a dead end?

Do you remember when I told you about the routine of "professional debtors"?

They take advantage of the difference between the market price of the house and the bank's appraisal price, as well as the low down payment ratio, etc., to take out housing loans, decoration loans, consumer loans, etc. from various banks, and these funds are transferred to one person, and the debt is found by a professional debtor.

In this way, millions of dollars can be withdrawn from the bank, and this routine and operation are "industrialized", so the bank is also very troublesome.

If the appraisal price of the house is not lowered, the risk will have to be borne by itself, and if the appraisal price of the house is lowered, then the leverage of those who engage in business loans will be broken.

In fact, when the real estate agent fooled everyone into replacing the mortgage with a business loan, I reminded everyone not to do this, because it was very dangerous.

Because housing loans are high-quality leverage, operating loans are relatively low-quality leverage.

The logic is that in the current environment, everything has to be stable, because debt is rigid, so debt maturity is the highest priority, and debt cost is second.

With the size of the loan unchanged, it is absolutely not possible to drastically shorten the maturity of the debt in order to reduce some of the cost of debt.

It's like a business loan, when it expires, if the bank doesn't renew it for you, what should you do? Can you afford to make up all the balance payments?

Don't think that this situation is impossible, if the credit environment is tightened, it will definitely strictly investigate the illegal entry of business loans into the property market.

This could lead to a widespread breakdown in operating loan leverage.

One question is, without an operating loan, will the mortgage be cut off? Yes.

Now many readers have left me messages saying that they have bought a house, but they are unemployed, and they are facing a lot of mortgage pressure.

This is no longer surprising.

In the past, if you repay the mortgage and postpone it for a day, the bank will call you and urge you to make up the money quickly; now, if you pay half a month late, the bank will not call you. All you have to do is hand it in.

In 2022, there was a wave of supply interruptions, and at that time, it was "mainly" concentrated in unfinished houses.

The owners united to inform the developer that because your house was unfinished, our owners refused to repay the mortgage and took the initiative to cut off the mortgage.

Later, it became clear to everyone that a series of special funds were established from top to bottom to ensure delivery.

Of course, in the past three years, there have also been some people who have lost the supply of second-hand houses, and the number of foreclosure houses has soared rapidly, mainly due to the impact of public health events.

However, there is a phenomenon that since 2023, the number of foreclosure houses has not only not declined, but is still increasing rapidly.

In the first half of 2023, according to the monitoring data of the China Index, the number of foreclosure houses listed for auction nationwide increased by 304,000 units again, an increase of 19.7% over the previous year.

It is worth noting that since July, according to the current monitoring data of various cities, both the growth rate of the number of foreclosure houses and the number of second-hand housing listings have further increased compared with the first half of the year.

What do you mean?

After years of tossing, a large number of radical leverages have burst in a concentrated manner, and the savings of workers and small traders have been exhausted for many years, and the mortgage leverage cannot withstand it, and it has begun to burst one after another.

It must be clear that the burst of mortgage leverage at this stage is not a matter of cost or term, but mainly a matter of income.

Not to mention the rigidity of debt.

Finally, consider a question:

The public health incident has passed, why is everyone's life more difficult, and the number of people with mortgage leverage bursting has increased significantly?

The current economic problems have gone beyond the economy itself, and many problems cannot be solved in the short term, so many people's future income expectations will not get better, but may become worse.

Many companies, industries, positions, etc., which are considered stable in the future, may not be so stable in the future.

Some people say that 2024 will usher in a wave of supply cuts, which is not necessarily true, but the reality is that leverage has been bursting.

It's important to remember to spend sparingly, don't buy a house, lower leverage, and cash is king.

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81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{ background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: 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.05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body: not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([ data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1);-weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}