2024 has arrived, and summarizing and looking forward is what people must do in the new year.
Looking back on the past year, this is the first year of the explosion of AI models, and after the emergence of ChatGPT launched by OpenAI, it brought a subversive information revolution, and then this craze quickly swept the world.
A few days ago, at the unveiling ceremony of "Chinese Inventory 2023" jointly sponsored by the National Language Resources Monitoring and Research Center, the Commercial Press, and Xinhuanet, "ChatGPT" was elected as the international word of the year.
At the same time, the Wikifoundation announced the list of the most popular entries on Wikipedia in 2023, and the most read entry on the English Wikipedia in 2023 is "ChatGPT".
What's even more interesting is that the internationally renowned academic journal Nature revealed its top ten people of 2023, and ChatGPT made the list as the only "non-human".
Bill Gates said: "The birth of ChatGPT is no less important than the birth of the PC or the Internet. ”
According to the estimation of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the AIGC market size in the mainland is expected to reach 17 billion yuan in 2023, and 2023-2025 is the first stage of the growth of the AIGC industry market in the mainland, with a growth rate of about 25%, starting in 2025, due to the improvement of the industry ecology (especially the completion of the opening of the underlying large model), the vigorous application layer will drive the rapid growth of the industry, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 70%, and the market size is expected to exceed one trillion in 2030.
Generative AI AIGC has revolutionized people's production and life to some extent.
Ten main application directions
In the face of the menacing ChatGPT, it has to be said that human beings panicked.
Goldman Sachs has released research pointing out that generative AI such as ChatGPT will bring significant disruption to the global labor market, and it is expected that 300 million jobs will be replaced by generative AI. McKinsey also noted that 70% of jobs will be eliminated in the future.
To put it simply, AIGC, led by ChatGPT, is grabbing the "jobs" of workers and has begun to be applied on a large scale.
Generally speaking, the top 10 occupations most likely to be replaced by ChatGPT in the market are: (1) technical jobs, including programmers and software engineers, (2) media workers, (3) legal workers, (4) market research analysts, (5) teachers, (6) finance, (7) traders, (8) graphic designers, (9) accountants, and (10) customer service.
In this way, the direction of the most affected or most easily applied industries is also clear, as follows:
1. Software development
ChatGPT helped programmers save their hair, but it created a huge sense of crisis.
In general, programmers need to spend a lot of time and effort understanding the system architecture, debugging and modifying the verification code, etc.
And ChatGPT can be used correctly to improve work efficiency, with a Programiz survey report showing that 67% of respondents use ChatGPT as their primary source or aid to learn programming.
Sometimes, instead of learning Python, they need to play with computer code autocomplete and assistive tools to get faster and better help.
2. Financial industry
Based on attributes such as data-intensive and high-frequency communication, the financial field is very compatible with the use of ChatGPT.
According to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), so-called generative AI can be used in all aspects of the front, middle and back office, including marketing and sales, channels and operations, product development, investment advisory services, customer service, risk compliance, and more.
Specifically, ChatGPT can be used for financial public opinion analysis and financial risk control to understand the emotional changes and behavioral preferences of the market and customers, so as to conduct risk assessment and even further promote products.
For example, Bloomberg has launched BloombergGPT, a large language model (LLM) built specifically for the financial sector, which is trained to use large-scale financial data, and JPMorgan Chase is using an AI large language model to launch the "Hawk-Dove Score" based on statements and official speeches issued by the Federal Reserve over the past 25 years to classify policy signals from loose to tight.
3. Traditional manufacturing
Upgrading and renewal have always been the key words in the development of the manufacturing industry.
With the development of AI and other technologies, from "system" to "intelligence", the manufacturing industry is entering a new stage.
The pain of the traditional manufacturing industry basically lies in the lack of innovation and low efficiency, while AIGC has brought great empowerment to the manufacturing industry. According to Deloitte's forecast, the market size of AI in China's manufacturing industry is expected to reach 14.1 billion yuan by 2025.
AIGC can help the manufacturing industry achieve intelligent manufacturing and digital transformation, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and provide personalized customization services and automated design solutions based on customer needs, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness. At the same time, it can be used for enterprise management, such as employee performance evaluation, equipment management, cost control, etc., to improve the level and efficiency of enterprise management.
4. Education
According to a report released by UNESCO, there is currently a global shortage of 44 million teachers, and "AI teachers" are breaking the shackles of uneven development of regions and resources.
ChatGPT can be used as a teacher to provide intelligent classrooms, tutoring, grading, etc., to provide a personalized learning experience according to students' interests and needs, and can also provide teachers with real-time feedback and teaching suggestions, optimizing the allocation and management of educational resources, so as to achieve effective and accurate teaching. A Programiz survey reported that 30% of people felt ChatGPT was better than a college lecture.
5. Media
Nowadays, people are no stranger to automated news writing and editing technology, and ChatGPT's capabilities can be said to be even better.
According to Statista, ChatGPT reached 1 million users in just five days, an enviable pace given that it took Netflix three and a half years and Instagram two and a half months to get to that size.
How does it do it?
Based on the intelligent analysis and prediction of semantic data, ChatGPT can help the media industry realize the automation of the whole process from news gathering, editing, publishing to dissemination.
6. Healthcare
ChatGPT has also shown its value in the healthcare field, mainly in prevention, diagnosis, and decision-making scenarios, such as generating personalized medical reports, reviewing medical records, providing guidance and advice on online medical consultations, drug development, etc.
Brigham Hospital, Massachusetts, one of the largest non-profit medical institutions in the United States, has released a research paper on the application of ChatGPT in clinical medical decision-making, showing that ChatGPT has an accuracy rate of 71.7% in the entire clinical decision-making, showing great potential.
7. Content Creation
ChatGPT can provide inspiration and new perspectives for content creation, and even help creators generate text/drawings with specific keywords to mimic specific writing/design styles, saving time and effort, and with a high quality.
In reality, many students have already used it as a reference to produce papers and graduation projects, so the risk of academic misconduct caused by the abuse of AI technology also needs to be monitored.
Science has made it clear that it does not accept papers generated by ChatGPT and does not allow ChatGPT to be the author, and Nature has said that large language model tools such as ChatGPT can be used to write papers, but it is also forbidden to be listed as co-authors.
8. Law
ChatGPT's role in the legal field should not be underestimated, and this tool can be used to obtain professional information more conveniently, and help in understanding legal terms, document drafting, judicial decisions, etc., to improve efficiency and accuracy.
A few days ago, LexisNexis, a global legal services giant, announced that starting from the spring semester of 2024, it will provide ChatGPT-like assistant - Lexis+ AI for 100,000 law school students certified by the American Bar Association (ABA) to query, learn and analyze legal knowledge.
Of course, there are many negative teaching materials in reality. Steven Schwartz, an American lawyer, was fined $5,000 by a judge for using ChatGPT to produce a legal summary containing fictitious judicial opinions and citations.
9. Translation
With the advancement of AI technology, the barriers between languages are constantly being broken, and ChatGPT has also demonstrated powerful translation capabilities.
Let's take a look at OpenAI Translator, a word-scratching translation tool based on ChatGPT API, which supports mutual translation and polishing functions in 55 languages, real-time modification of translated texts, one-click copying, TTS (reading aloud), etc., which plays a role in reducing costs and increasing efficiency.
Industry insiders have said that AI can improve translation efficiency by 3,600 times. For a 1,000-word translation, it takes 1 hour for manual labor and 1 second for AI, and 1 million yuan for a professional translator to translate 200,000 yuan, and AI only needs less than 1,000 yuan, and the cost will be reduced to 1%.
With the help of AI, the translation efficiency of online texts has been significantly improved, which is effectively promoting the large-scale "going overseas" of online texts. According to the 2023 Report on the Trend of Chinese Online Literature Going Overseas, as of October 2023, about 3,600 translated works have been launched by China Literature's overseas portal, an increase of 110% compared with three years ago.
10. Customer Service
The emergence of ChatGPT has made conversational AI more intelligent, and some people joke that it will become the "savior" of e-commerce giants in the period of big promotions.
Compared with traditional human customer service, ChatGPT can handle a large number of customer requests at the same time after application through multiple tests and optimizations, and provide customized suggestions according to customer needs, always maintain an accurate, timely and professional attitude, and answer questions online 24 hours a day, which not only reduces costs and increases efficiency for enterprises, but also improves service quality.
In the final analysis, the business opportunities brought by AIGC include the creation of new market demand, the re-expansion of original market demand, the reduction of cost links/factors, and the improvement of efficiency, etc., to help relevant workers "free their hands and minds", which is subverting the workplace and bringing a new round of productivity revolution.
This is an opportunity and a challenge, as the saying goes, water can carry a boat, but it can also overturn a boat. People need to take advantage of the technological impact and adapt to the new changes brought about by technology.
According to a "2023 Talent Migration Report", ChatGPT researchers have become the position with the highest average salary (67,000 yuan) for new jobs in 2023, and the competition for AI talents is becoming more and more hot.
Obviously, the AIGC model led by ChatGPT can reshape the industry, and leading Internet companies at home and abroad continue to pay attention to the AIGC industry and increase their layout. According to the report of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, for example, Google invested in Anthropic to deploy intelligent chatbots in response to the threat from ChatGPT, Meta announced the launch of AIGC commercial landing products by the end of 2023, and Baidu launched Wenxin Yiyan to benchmark ChatGPT products......
Due to the relatively limited development of the industry, the differences between various types of players are relatively limited at present. In the AIGC industry in mainland China, the application layer is the most suitable part for start-ups to enter, so the competition among enterprises in the application layer is also the most fierce.
Specifically, there have been a number of companies engaged in the development and extension of large models in China, but the ecosystem of opening up to the outside world has not yet been widely formed. For example, Baidu's Wenxin model is deployed from high-end chips + paddle deep learning framework + large model, Huawei focuses on industry applications and has successively released a series of Pangu industry models such as mining, meteorology, and waves, and Tencent's hybrid model builds the Taiji machine learning platform to provide data/feature engineering, model training, and model services at the product layer.
In addition to the active layout of the enterprise side, today, ordinary people also have the opportunity to earn the first pot of gold in generative AI.
Last week, OpenAI officially launched two new products and services, among them, the GPT Store has different categories and rankings, and you can search all public GPTs according to your needs, and select the most popular user-created GPTs by category.
Of course, you need to activate GPT4 before you can use it.
OpenAI noted that community members have built 3 million GPTs so far, and have approved a series of them to be downloaded in the GPT Store. At the same time, in the first quarter of this year, it will launch a GPT developer sharing program, which will pay GPT builders based on users' participation in their GPT. It has to be said that the emergence of GPT Store has further expanded the commercialization space of AI.
Of course, at present, AIGC led by ChatGPT tends to successfully complete some businesses with high repetition, low professionalism, and easy to be operated and predicted.
What's more, it has problems such as lack of standards and norms, data security, environmental challenges, and ethical challenges, and when an AIGC model with high uncertainty is open to the public, how can it prevent misuse and abuse?
In November 2023, the world's first AI Security Summit was held in the United Kingdom, and 28 participating countries, including China and the United States, and the European Union signed the Bletchley Declaration, saying that all parties need to work together to set a common regulatory approach.
In the face of AI, people should seize the dividends of the scene, but also maintain awe, and the most important thing is that workers should also roll up and improve their professionalism and innovation, after all, man-machine collaborative evolution is more promising.
The Economist APP Industry Observation Group
For more industry research and analysis, please see:
[1] "2023-2028 China AIGC Industry Development Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report", Qianzhan Industry Research Institute
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Resources:
[1] "Goldman Sachs Warning: ChatGPT Will Steal the Jobs of 300 Million People Around the World", AI Frontline