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Will the next Bitcoin halving be another hype cycle?

Will the next Bitcoin halving be another hype cycle?

Will the next Bitcoin halving be another hype cycle?

作者:Daniel Kuhn,CoinDesk;

Compiler: Song Xue, Golden Finance

Now that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are live in the US, market watchers are looking for the next potential bullish event to drive the cryptocurrency higher. After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) made the long-awaited decision to approve these financial products, Bitcoin ETFs both beat expectations and underperformed them – presenting both the pros and cons of a hype-driven market.

The top three Bitcoin ETFs have seen well over $500 million in capital inflows (excluding Grayscale's $22 billion fund, which was converted from the existing GBTC trust fund and has seen significant outflows), indicating a huge demand for traditional floor trading. In the weeks leading up to the approval date on Wednesday, January 10, Bitcoin rose to a recent high of around $48,000.

Many analysts and traders are now hopeful that the upcoming Bitcoin halving – a drastic cut in the rate at which new bitcoins are issued to network validators, aka miners, could be a similar catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. There's a long-standing debate about whether or not these programmatic triggers, which occur every four years, are "priced."

Last week's approval of a Bitcoin ETF could be a harbinger of what's to come in the next Bitcoin hype cycle. The listing of 11 new Bitcoin funds was a clear sell-off, at least in hindsight, and Bitcoin has since fallen about 12% to $42,250 today. It's too early to tell whether Bitcoin ETFs will attract billions of dollars and investors, and this prediction depends on the actual demand for Bitcoin.

At the same time, the Bitcoin halving (and sometimes halving) narrative is a supply-side story: the price of Bitcoin could rise after the supply of new coins entering the market is limited, assuming that the use of the Bitcoin network remains stable or increases.

In a way, the Bitcoin halving claim is an afterthought, as Bitcoin has actually risen significantly in the months following each halving to date. For example, Bitcoin crossed the $1,000 threshold for the first time six months after the network's second halving in 2016 (when the Bitcoin reward per block dropped from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC). A similar rally occurred in 2020, when Bitcoin hit new all-time highs.

But apart from the bullish sentiment and increased media coverage that usually precedes the halving, there is little indication that these price increases are directly related to the halving. In its latest "Mining Report", CoinShares noted that "the peak of hashrate growth usually occurs around four months before the halving, possibly due to the 'Bitcoin Boom,'" which may represent positive sentiment.

Aside from the somewhat shaky economic logic surrounding the Bitcoin supply shock, consider that the supply of newly mined Bitcoin will actually continue to increase over the next century or so, at which point all 21 million Bitcoin will be mined. Satoshi Nakamoto designed the Bitcoin network to subsidize miners through these rewards in the hope that over time, transaction fees will grow enough to maintain network security and validation.

CoinShares did not provide a price prediction in its report, but instead indicated that Bitcoin mining will become more competitive after the halving, weeding out the least efficient miners. While Bitcoin has seen a 90% increase in efficiency since the last halving, there has also been an increase in hash rate (which represents the computing power of network security) and cost structure.

In fact, the current Bitcoin mining difficulty is at an all-time high, and by 2023, the hashrate will jump by more than 100%. CoinShares predicts that this number will fall after the Bitcoin halving due to the "outflow of miners". The company also said that the "average cost of production per token" after the halving could normalize to just under $38,000, given the complex interrelationships between hardware and electricity costs, difficulty levels, and cost structures that determine whether certain miners make or lose money. This determines how many miners there are on the network.

What exactly does this mean for Bitcoin price prediction? Somewhat paradoxically, if the Bitcoin price stays above $40,000, it may actually reduce miners' returns. CoinShares did not provide this prediction, but considering that miners tend to be the biggest sellers of Bitcoin, the decline in profitability could also create selling pressure on this group.

There are also many who disagree and see the halving as another potential positive catalyst for the price of Bitcoin. But it's worth noting that everyone has their own motivations. When it comes to halving, the only thing that can be guaranteed is that this is yet another hype moment.

Note: The material in the article comes from public information on the Internet, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete, the above content only represents the author's personal views.

Source | Golden Finance

编 | Black   审 | 林蛋壳

Disclaimer: Investment is risky, and you must be cautious when entering the market. This information is not intended as investment advice.

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