静观NBA | 聊一聊快船、森林狼的这场球

Let's talk about the Clippers vs Timberwolves.

The score was 105-109, and the difference was not much. But there are two twists in this:

Although the margin was not large, the Timberwolves led by 17 points at one point and led for most of the game. The Timberwolves had a bigger advantage than a four-point deficit in this game. This is the first layer;

From the perspective of player fitness and personnel neatness, the Clippers' two key scorers (George and Harden) have more room to pull back, and starting center Zubac is absent. This is the second layer.

The meaning of these two twists is that the Clippers have room to adjust, and they can close the gap through personnel returns and detail improvements, and then it may end up in an unpredictable situation.

But in this game alone, the Clippers really can't beat the Timberwolves, just as the Suns can't beat the Clippers in that game.

The key here is, how do you beat the Timberwolves?

There are two ideas, these two ideas do not conflict, if you have enough resources, you can come together.

Idea 1: Prevent it first.

Yes, it's that rough.

But if you can't defend the team that ranks 17th in the league in offensive efficiency, and you win by simply tearing down their league's No. 1 defense at the other end, it's not easy to think about it.

The Clippers should also feel that the Timberwolves will have some mistakes in the face of pressing defense, early help defense and fast rotation, and even some low-level mistakes, which may turn into fast-break opportunities. The Clippers have the ability to take advantage of opponents' mistakes to play transitions, and Harden's vision and Willis's advancement can all see opportunities before the Timberwolves' defensive formation is in place.

Idea 2: Pull full ball-handling, all-space lineup, and multi-point initiation ability to break the Timberwolves' iron bucket formation

Only shooting with the ball or only space, playing Timberwolves defense is not necessarily enough. The Timberwolves have a high quality of lead defenders, many co-defense points, and a certain ability to deploy the formation with a dislocation of the first move, and Gobert can even complete some defensive changes. The other party is armed to the teeth, and you can't be vague either.

Which line of thought is the Clippers' configuration closer to?

Actually, it's the first one.

The Clippers don't have a real five-out lineup right now. Lu was five small, and in the end, he was able to chase points and Wei Shao's personal performance. Wei Shao played really well, but except for a few rounds in the latter part of the fourth quarter, most of the time, it had nothing to do with the logic of "five outsides", and it was more reflected in his counterattack feeding, breakthrough points and game energy. If the last card of the five-out lineup is him, then Gobert will play against him to help defend and release his three-pointer, which will not change, and the underlying logic of the Timberwolves' defense will not be changed.

In turn, the Clippers' resources are defensive against the Timberwolves, but there is hope to do better, which requires Zubac to play. Zubac has three tags on this player:

Tag 1, he's not a very good offensive player. If I had put it in the past, I wouldn't have remembered Gobert's name after a game without him against his team. However, Harden's improvement on Zubac's offensive end is obvious, and I believe for the time being that at least Zubac will feel better against Gobert now than he did in the past;

Label 2, he is in pain against a team with a strong ability to train big centers. There is no need to talk about the lineup of the five. The top-tier pick-and-roll shot against him was also very clear in last year's series with the Suns. There is no way to fundamentally change this. However, the Timberwolves are not that kind of team;

Label 3, he is very positive about the protection of the paint area, which is better than Tess and Plumlee. And this matter is very important when facing the Timberwolves.

I'm not saying that Zubac must be easy to play the Timberwolves, it's still vague. It's possible that he did, and Goebel treated him badly. In case Lue uses his occasion to catch up with the Wolves playing inside with Downs + Reed, the art style may also be abstract (though, Lue knows how to use center against Lee Kyle).

However, in terms of the current configuration of the Clippers, I think the basic idea for them to play the Timberwolves should be this:

Pulling the defensive alignment intensity, the leader pressed the ball fiercely, and swiped cards with long arms along the way to test the ball protection of the Timberwolves players, forcing them to slow down or even stop the ball. Zubac does a good job of basket protection and rebounding protection, and the weak-side defender is ready to intercept the Timberwolves players when they are under pressure to help defend them;

Take advantage of the Timberwolves' turnovers to make a transition. With Brother Kazi's one-on-one hard solution, Harden and Brother Kazi's blocking and dismantling grabbed Conley, Harden's opposition advantage to Conley, Harden, George, Powell, Brother Kazi and others used the shooting ability of the cover to protect the lower limit of the offense in the position.

The Clippers have a hand-to-hand shooting advantage, more offensive players and better ball handling than the opposition, and if they defend a little better, they don't have a chance to win the defense.

This idea may not work out without practice, but it's a plan I'm willing to try first when the Clippers have Zubac.

What if it doesn't work?

If you change to another team, you won't be able to beat it.

But the Clippers' foundation has decided that they still have the possibility of unlocking the aforementioned "Idea 2". In the 2021 playoffs, the Clippers eliminated Gobert. Although the series featured the famous "Mann Night", the Jazz were far inferior to the Timberwolves outside of Gobert at the time. But the Clippers have Harden and Powell in addition to Capepper, and if they can get their hands on the final card of the real five, the Clippers have a chance to give the Timberwolves the ultimate matchup puzzle.

If it is the dragon and tiger of the year, it will still be in the formation......

In this game with the Timberwolves, except for Zubac, he did not play, and the other rotations of the Clippers can be described as "elite". Of the nine players, two are centre-forwards, two are forwards, and the other five are defenders.

Of course, 4 of the Clippers' 5 guards are very "meaty", Harden, Wei Shao, Powell, and Mann are all heavy guards, and the only relatively thin Coffey is the height of the forward level. In a normal game, the Clippers' guards are not a problem at all on the defensive end, and poor shooting can also be covered up by game energy and defensive ability.

But the high-end game is another matter, and Mann and Coffey have no advantage against the Timberwolves. This game can also make people understand why Lu Ming knows that there is Powell's version of the ultimate five-man team is the Clippers' trump card, but this lineup can't be put for a long time - there is a shortage of manpower, if Powell always plays with Pepperden, then the other group of Wei Shao, Mann, and Coffey will be together for a longer time, and the space will be too blocked.

In addition, the Clippers' interior options seem to be diverse, but in fact, because everyone has no reliable projection, the offensive end is not very differentiated, Theis can't solve it, and Plumlee is the same, and Zubac's return to improve this end may only be a cover area.

Speaking of which, it is clear - the Clippers have to unlock their "Idea 2" to ensure that "Bias" and "Bias" can come up with killer features. And what can unlock "Idea 2" should be a large frontcourt with projection, not bad defense, and a comprehensive game level that is enough to eat the connecting section.

Of course, this kind of player is not easy to find. That's why teams with 3-and-D strikers and big shooters are always in the spotlight before the deadline. And, that man, every year at this time of year, is to be talked about.