What does the central bank's failure to cut interest rates mean for A-shares?

On January 15, 2024, the People's Bank of China launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 89 billion yuan, with a winning interest rate of 1.8%, and at the same time, launched a 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 995 billion yuan, with a winning interest rate of 2.5%, which is the same as before. Wind data shows that 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, so the net investment in a single day was 1,034 billion yuan.

Previously, the market generally expected MLF to cut interest rates by 10-15bp, the main logic was weak economic fundamentals, low inflation, and high real interest rates. The reasons for not cutting interest rates are: insufficient investment opportunities, liquidity traps, limited effect of interest rate cuts, taking into account internal and external balances, and maintaining banks' interest rate spreads and anti-risk capabilities.

The author believes that just as structural inflation will not constrain China's monetary policy easing, structural deflation will not be a reason to cut interest rates. The central bank's rationale for cutting rates is either that the potential growth rate is downside or that the actual growth rate is lower than the potential growth rate.

According to the 2021 central bank working paper "Estimating the Mainland's Potential Output and Growth Momentum during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period", the real GDP growth rate exceeded the potential output growth rate in 2021, so the MLF did not cut interest rates. In 2022, the growth rate of the mainland's potential output will be 5.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from 2021, the CPI will rise by 2% year-on-year, and the 1-year MLF rate in 2022 will also be lowered by 20bp twice in January and August, which is comparable to the downward rate of potential output growth. Potential output growth remains unchanged in 2023, but inflation is sluggish due to insufficient demand, CPI is up 0.2% year-on-year, real GDP growth is expected to be 5.2-5.3%, and the 1-year MLF rate is also cut by 10bp in June and 15bp in August. Potential output growth will fall by another 20bp in 2024, and if there is no demand gap and real GDP growth reaches 5.3%, the MLF rate will not be lowered. The author expects real GDP growth to decline to 5% in 2024, and the 1-year MLF will be lowered in two phases in 2024, with a total reduction of 25bp.

From the perspective of the time window for interest rate cuts, CPI and PPI are less than expected when inflation is high, which provides an opportunity to cut interest rates, and low CPI when inflation is low provides an opportunity to cut interest rates. The dislocation of the Spring Festival in 2023 will make the CPI relatively high in February 2024. From the perspective of interest rate spreads of commercial banks, although in December 2023, five large commercial banks, namely Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of Communications, adjusted a number of listed interest rates on RMB deposits. However, at the beginning of 2024, small and medium-sized banks will raise deposit rates against the trend to compete for savings deposits, and interest rate spreads will be under greater pressure at the beginning of the year. Judging from the interest rate differential between China and the United States, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has ended. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 95.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 21%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 75.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 3.6%. Overall, April and August 2024 will be relatively good times to cut interest rates.

The central bank's failure to cut interest rates indicates that the economic data released on January 17 may be good, with a high probability of GDP growth reaching 5.3%. As a result, A-shares began to rebound after opening lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting 2,900 points at one point. The offensive and defensive battle of A-shares near 2900 points is in line with the author's expectations. However, it is population and real estate that are the main factors that will impact China's economy and stock market. Due to the high number of deaths, it is expected that the population data released on January 17 will be poor, and A-shares will decline again. Waiting for the downward rebound again can meet the Spring Festival restlessness brought by the two sessions, which is expected to last for about three weeks.

What to buy when it rebounds? First, the mood improves and buys the growth sector. Robots, computers, brokers, and new energy can all be. The second is the investment opportunities brought about by the declining population. For example, the blonde rabbi has the concept of medical beauty + second child, which had 10 daily limits in 12 trading days in 2021 and rose sharply in January 2023. The third is the theme opportunity. For example, due to the Red Sea situation, container prices on some Asia-Europe routes have recently soared by nearly 600%. The maritime sector has been rising since last Friday.

What to buy at the end of the rally? First, high dividends + Combo depression, such as coal, petroleum and petrochemicals. The second is to stabilize cash flow, such as telecom operators and utilities. The third is high dividends, low valuations, and low risks, such as some banks with small real estate exposure. Fourth, entrepreneurs, such as Fuyao Glass.

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#1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{ background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}