It has become the only living mouth in the two cities, and it is frantically sought after by the market, and the high-dividend sector is really so godly?

This is the 842nd original article on the front of new energy

Recently, the market has been very bad (the devil knows how many times this sentence has been said), the market has been falling endlessly, and the vast majority of sectors naturally do not have any money-making effect at all (this is already very polite, it is the money-losing effect), except for some demon stocks, the decent performance is the high-dividend sector, and then many strong optimistic about the high-valuation sector, thinking that other sectors, especially the growth sector, are dog-shi's remarks again.

 01 

High dividends have become fragrant

Such views vary greatly and can be summarized as follows.

The investment style of China's stock market is undergoing an unprecedented change: from a preference for growth to a preference for value, and it must be absolute value, not relative value, with the result that capital is not concerned with the future growth of the company, but only on the current dividend returns.

The reasons behind this are profound and long-term: China's economy is slowing down, the growth rate of most enterprises is slowing down, and even many of them have experienced negative growth, and the growth of growth stocks has been falsified; the competition in high-growth industries is too fierce, and the actual profit returns of many growth companies are very limited; there is a lack of market liquidity, and the theme cannot be speculated, and the theme most often appears in various growth industries.

Next, there will be another wave of high-valuation industries, and then there will be the world of high-dividend industries, and the growth style will be driven into 18 layers of hell, and there will be no future, because the economic downturn is long-term.

First of all, LEO does not have any prejudice against the high-dividend industry, on the contrary, I like it, after all, in this market, the company that can pay real dividends is very precious, and old friends know that LEO has always advocated that there should not be too much bias in investment, and the fundamental purpose of investment should be to make money and make profits, rather than to take sides.

What is disgusting is this kind of remarks, mainly because such remarks seem to be conclusive and reasonable, and if you haven't been in the capital market for a long time, you will believe it.

If this kind of view is optimistic about the performance of the current stage, or even the performance of the high-dividend sector in the next few months, it will be recognized, but it will be more than ten years at every turn, and by the way, the behavior of sentencing other industries, especially growth industries, to death is completely treating people as fools.

What's the difference between that and those who said a few years ago that China's house prices will rise forever, and those who thought core assets would rise forever in 2020 and 2021, and how do you compare it with those who were a little bit more adamantly bullish on small-cap stocks?

It doesn't make any difference!

But now those people still say that house prices are going to rise, and are there still people who are bullish on core assets?

No, not one, on the contrary, those who are infinitely optimistic about the high-dividend sector now are likely to be these people before, not so much that they really believe in the logic they put forward, but rather that the trend gives them the courage to say these hard words.

Objectively speaking, the recent performance of the high-dividend sector is really good, obviously outperforming the market, and the reason is not complicated, that is, the overall performance of the market is poor, and the funds have nowhere to hide, so they can only hide in a relatively safe place.

Is it true that the money hiding in the high-dividend sector is as bullish on these sectors as these commentators say?

 02 

The real reason for the popularity of high dividends

We all know that since October last year, the market of the Beijing Stock Exchange has been hot, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index has soared. Are these funds really optimistic about the development of the Beijing Stock Exchange for a long time? Are these companies optimistic that the Beijing Stock Exchange will really grow into towering trees? Is the Beijing Stock Exchange China's NASDAQ?

Bullshit ！

Let's just say that the surge of the Beijing Stock Exchange has nothing to do with the market's optimism about the long-term development of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and these funds are certainly not optimistic about how many technology giants like the NASDAQ FAANG will really run out of the Beijing Stock Exchange.

To put it bluntly, it's just because the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets have no money-making effect (only money-losing effect), the Beijing Stock Exchange is a fresh and clean market, the plate is small, and you can pull it up with a little bit of money, occupy a position first, pull up a wave, and then start telling stories, and wait for people outside the market to come over to exchange chips after the market is hot, and then exchange a lot of shit for others, and they run away.

As far as the qualifications of enterprises are concerned, if neither the ChiNext nor the Science and Technology Innovation Board can grow into China's NASDAQ, let alone the Beijing Stock Exchange, you can participate, but don't go up, no, judging from the trend of the past few days, this story is almost impossible to tell, or it is likely that the previous storyteller has run away......

Speaking of which, everything is just a cycle, and there is nothing new under the sun.

 03 

Everything is a cycle

In fact, strictly speaking, it is very unscientific to divide stocks into growth stocks and cyclical stocks. Strictly speaking, everything is cyclical, and growth stocks are also cyclical stocks, but the growth rate is different due to different business models and different industry development stages.

For example, the average pig cycle of 3~5 years, liquor has followed the Chinese economy through two waves, and semiconductors have also followed the ups and downs of the global economy......

The existence of the cycle determines that there is no eternal track, there is no eternal great bull stocks, only the bull stocks of the times, and we should uphold the cycle thinking, not the track thinking.

Looking at the birth of the cycle, the core is mainly two points: the slope of demand release and capacity supply. When the penetration rate of an industry increases rapidly, the demand release is relatively fast, and it is easy to give rise to bubbles at this time, and the chicken dog rises to heaven; when the penetration rate reaches a certain level, the demand is still being released, but the speed slows down significantly, and the valuation begins to be killed, and the industry competition intensifies and the concentration rate increases.

Different industries, or different periods of the industry, are actually playing such a game, repeating the cycle and repeating it.

For an enterprise, growth is a doomed fate, if it loses its growth, it also means decline, in the capital market it also means almost lost long-term investment value, just as many people as they grow older and no longer learn, give up progress, the value that can be generated is getting lower and lower.

The nature of the eternal upward development of the society determines that the faster the growth rate, the more willing the market is to give a higher valuation, and this growth may be late because of the phased depression of the market, but it will definitely not be absent, which is close to the truth.

In the past two years, the new energy sector has been very bad, in addition to the problem of overcapacity in the industry, the core reason is that it has risen too crazy in the past few years, the market has returned to valuation, and the market has been too bad in the past two years.

But after more than 2 years of correction, the bubble has basically been eliminated, and even the valuations of many industry leaders are about the same as some companies in the high-dividend sectors that are now sought after by the market!!

Is this expected that the growth rate of these high-dividend companies will outperform these new energy leaders?

In the context of carbon neutrality has become a global consensus, and the penetration rate of new energy, whether it is photovoltaic, wind power or new energy vehicles in the world, no matter how bad the situation, their growth rate is much higher than that of many of these high-dividend companies.

But now they are turning a blind eye to this basic fact, and in their eyes, the market they see now is all risk, and the high-dividend sectors at least have dividends to talk about comfort, giving a little illusory sense of security.

When will this terrible market end, and when will this extreme style shift be reversed?

I don't know, but one thing is clear: all the panic, insecurity, dissatisfaction, resentment in the market right now has been there before and will always be in the future, and all the preferences that have appeared before have also appeared and will continue to do so until the next cycle comes, and everything is completely different.

But what remains unchanged is always human nature, and the capital market is the ultimate reflection of human nature.

This time it won't be different, just like the sky won't fall.