Next week, the economic data for December and the whole year will be released, and these investment opportunities are the most reliable
【Blockbuster News】
Blockbuster economic data is just around the corner
On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics will release macroeconomic data for December 2023 and the whole year, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, GDP for the fourth quarter, and GDP for the whole year of 2023.
The agency predicts that economic activities in December will be disturbed by more exogenous factors, and the frequent outbreaks of influenza in the first half of the country, and the cooling and snowfall in the middle of the year will have an impact on economic activities, and the impact on consumer activities, infrastructure and real estate may be greater. It is expected that the industrial growth rate will stabilize in December, and consumption will remain high year-on-year under the effect of the previous policy and the low base effect.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, previously said that preliminary estimates show that as long as the growth rate is more than 4.4% in the fourth quarter, it can ensure the completion of the expected target of about 5% for the whole year.
The China Economic and Financial Outlook Report (2024) released by the Bank of China Research Institute predicts that China's GDP will grow by about 5.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023 and about 5.3% for the whole year. Looking ahead to 2024, China's economy will return to potential growth levels, with GDP growth expected to be around 5% in 2024.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that the overall economic operation in the fourth quarter was stable, and the economy stabilized along three main lines, one is employment and income to support the recovery of household consumption, the second is the new growth momentum under industrial upgrading and structural optimization, and the third is the continuous release of policy effects. In the same period of 2022, the relatively low base affected by the epidemic will push up the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the GDP is expected to increase by 5.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter and 5.3% year-on-year for the whole year, with an average growth rate of 4.2% in two years.
Huawei will hold the "HarmonyOS Ecosystem Thousand Sails Launching Ceremony"
On January 18, Huawei will hold the "HarmonyOS Ecosystem Sailing Ceremony", which will be held in eight major cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Xiamen, Wuhan, and Changsha. According to Yu Chengdong, the new HarmonyOS NEXT developer preview will be available to all developers in the first quarter of this year, and the event may be officially revealed.
The open source securities research report pointed out that at present, enterprises and developers in many fields have successively announced to join the Hongmeng ecosystem, and have shown strong growth and creativity, forming a vigorous scene of "Hongmeng thousands of sails". Many ecological partners have actively joined the HarmonyOS native application ecosystem, which fully demonstrates the comprehensive strength of the HarmonyOS system and is also expected to accelerate the ecological construction of HarmonyOS native applications.
苹果Vision Pro头显开启预购
Apple's Apple Vision Pro will be available in the U.S. on February 2. Pre-orders begin at 5 a.m. PT (9 p.m. EDT) on January 19 and start at $3,499 with 256GB of storage.
On January 12, Ming-Chi Kuo tweeted that the initial stock of Apple's Vision Pro headset was about 6-80,000 units, and because the number of stocks was not large, it was believed that it would be out of stock in the early stage of listing. Ming-Chi Kuo believes that due to the complexity of production, Apple's Vision Pro headset production is expected to be less than 400,000 units in 2024. According to public information such as announcements and investor Q&A of companies in the media and other fields, a number of content/application listed companies are doing the adaptation or layout of Vision Pro products.
Refined oil meets the price adjustment window
According to the current domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the second oil price adjustment in 2024 will be carried out at 24 o'clock on January 17. According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the seventh working day on January 12, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 74.83 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of -1.14%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be reduced by 60 yuan / ton.
Recently, Citi Research lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025, citing concerns about oversupply, but expects oil prices to remain above $70 per barrel in 2024 as OPEC+ maintains a "fine balance" in the global oil market. Citi lowered its 2024 Brent crude oil price forecast by $1 to $74/b and its 2025 forecast by $10 to $60/bbl. However, the bank said that the risk premium could rise in the near term due to further political tensions recently.
*ST Huayi will be delisted next week
The first delisted stock of 2024 is here, *ST Huayi will be delisted next week. According to the announcement, on January 9, *ST Huayi received a relevant notice from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to terminate the listing of the company's shares. The company's shares will not enter the delisting period and will be terminated from listing and delisting on January 16 (next Tuesday).
A total of 58 companies' restricted shares will be lifted next week
Wind data statistics show that next week (January 15-January 19), a total of 58 companies' restricted shares will be lifted one after another, with a total of 5.243 billion shares, and the total market value of the ban will be 56.948 billion yuan based on the closing price on January 12.
From the perspective of the market value of the lifting of the ban, January 18 is the peak period of the lifting of the ban, and the total market value of 11 companies is 32.294 billion yuan, accounting for 56.7% of the scale of the lifting of the ban next week. According to the closing price on January 12, the top three market capitalizations are: Tianneng shares (23.293 billion yuan), Hexing shares (5.841 billion yuan), and AVIC airborne (3.294 billion yuan). From the perspective of the amount of individual stocks, the top three shares are: TPV Technology (1.11 billion shares), Tianneng shares (841 million shares), and Taiyuan Heavy Industry (769 million shares).
From the perspective of the types of shares lifted, there are 13 restricted shares of the original shareholders for the first time, 13 shares for private placement institutions, 9 restricted shares for equity incentives, 7 shares for the initial strategic placement, 6 shares for the initial placement of institutions, 5 general shares for equity incentives, 2 restricted shares for the initial original shareholders, 2 shares for the initial strategic placement, 1 restricted share for equity division, 1 general share for the first time, 1 for the initial placement of institutional shares, and 1 for other types.
【IPO Opportunities】
Wind data shows that there will be 3 new shares issued next week (January 15-January 19), including 2 on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 1 on the ChiNext board. Specifically, on January 15, it was issued by Shengjing Micro and Maxim Technology, and on January 19, it was issued by Beizi Technology.
According to the data, Shengjing Micro is an electronic device provider with high-performance and ultra-low-power chip design capabilities, and its main products are electronic control modules in the field of industrial security. The public offering of 25,166,700 shares was made at an IPO price of 38.18 yuan per share. Maxim Technology is a high-tech enterprise focusing on the design, research and development, production and sales of magnetic components, and plans to issue 11,095,149 shares at an issue price of 36.51 yuan per share. Beizi Technology is mainly engaged in the research and development, design, manufacturing and integration of intelligent logistics systems with automated three-dimensional warehouses as the core, and plans to issue 40,556,900 shares to the public.
