The central bank has set the tone for China's property market in 2024! The first mention of "18 words" is really anxious

▼ Text|Lao Mo

As we all know, if you have to find an idiom to describe the property market in 2023, think about it, I am afraid that "ups and downs" is the most appropriate. After only 2 months of Xiaoyangchun, it immediately ushered in an unprecedented wave of price reductions.

Both the magnitude and the scope are far beyond 2022, you must know that this is not something I made out of nothing, just look at these two data at a glance:

1. The transaction area of new houses in 100 cities across the country fell by about 6% year-on-year, and the absolute scale hit the lowest in the past seven years;

2. A total of more than 670 policies have been issued across the country, and the policy environment is close to the most relaxed stage in 2014.

Please note that these two "most" words, in fact, are tantamount to connecting the past and the present, directly forming a line, and the characteristics are very prominent, that is, the more you go to the right, the lower it is.

In fact, we can calculate carefully, taking housing prices as an example, even if it only falls by 1% year-on-year every year, it adds up, and the final number will be very huge, for example, the total price of a house is calculated according to 2 million, and a decline of 1% is a full 20,000, and if it continues to fall for five years, this is 100,000.

Hasn't the state discovered this problem? The answer is undoubted, of course it can't!

In fact, in the past, we paid attention to the property market, or to put it bluntly, we only focused on housing prices, and the controversy is whether it will rise or fall, please note that the key word is not up and down, but the word "violence".

Perhaps because of this, the property market regulation in the past year has been significantly greater than in previous years, and has reached the most relaxed stage in the past decade, such as purchase and sale restrictions, down payment interest rate increases, household provident fund, etc., either directly canceled or relaxed, in fact, this itself is a signal.

Of course, I think that if you want to recover the property market, income is also the key, after all, there is no money in hand, and no matter how much you talk about, it will be in vain. Therefore, based on this information, we summarize it a little, and it is not difficult to find that the country has long recognized these problems and is already changing.

Speaking of this, it is necessary to mention a recent meeting held by the central bank, which clearly mentioned real estate, the first mention of the "18 words", the content is to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the operation of the real estate market. To put it bluntly, the supervision of real estate will enter a new stage in the future. In addition to this, these 39 words are also important.

First of all, these 13 words: the overall tone is to prevent and defuse financial risks. This is not that I am speaking for the property market, in fact, once the bank has a large number of bad debts, then there is likely to be financial risks. You may not understand this, but to put it bluntly, the worst outcome is bank failure.

In addition, there are more than 100 upstream and downstream industries in real estate, so what banks really care about is not the rise and fall of housing prices, but whether the supply will be cut off. From this point of view, if you want to defuse financial risks, you need to prevent housing prices from plummeting.

Please note that this is talking about a plunge, not a fall, and there is an essential difference between the two.

The second is these 18 words: use market-oriented and law-based means to solve the debt problem of real estate enterprises. Maybe you all have this idea, the debt problem encountered by real estate companies is completely their own problem, why should we solve it?

This is completely human nature, but the problem is that as an important part of the development of the property market, the importance of real estate enterprises is self-evident. If we don't help the real estate companies get out of the predicament now, who will continue to build the houses? It is simply unrealistic to rely on the municipal administration.

Therefore, what we should do is to rectify the order and strengthen management, which is the same as the impossibility of directly from pre-sale to current sale, which requires adding a shackle to real estate companies, and then they act in accordance with the rules.

Finally, these 8 words: vigorously support the "three major projects." In fact, whether it is demolition or urban village transformation, including the construction of corresponding supporting facilities, these are important ways to solve overcapacity.

And I think it's very important to regulate the development of the industry and increase our revenue. Nowadays, many industries can only continue to reduce costs in order to survive, and it is clear that one of them is to cut wages.

If we can alleviate the problem of overcapacity, or at least alleviate it, through the three major projects, then in the long run, it will undoubtedly be a good thing.

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