The CPI in the United States exceeded expectations in December last year, and the interest rate cut in March may fail?

On January 11, local time, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rebounded to 3.4% year-on-year in December last year, compared with 3.1% in the previous month, and the month-on-month increase expanded to 0.3%, compared with 0.1% in the previous value.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4% in the previous month and the lowest level since May 2021, and the month-on-month growth rate was unchanged at 0.3% in the previous month.

Core CPI may continue to slow

CITIC Securities said that the core CPI growth rate was 0.3% month-on-month, which was the same as the market expectation of 0.3% in the previous value. In terms of different sub-items, the core services inflation in the United States is still the stickiness of the US inflation, the month-on-month growth of energy inflation has turned from negative to positive, the negative growth rate of core goods has narrowed, and the month-on-month growth rate of food inflation has been relatively stable. As the supply pressure in the U.S. labor market gradually weakens, and the wage growth gap between job-hoppers and job retainers continues to narrow, inflationary pressures on core services are expected to ease, and the stickiness of the overall core services is expected to decline slowly.

CICC believes that due to the high base of core CPI in the first half of 2023, core inflation in the first half of 2024 is likely to continue to slow down. However, this does not mean that inflation will slow down as fast in 2024 as last year, as the fastest time for supply recovery may be behind us.

Agencies: The Fed has reduced the urgency to cut interest rates

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 67% chance that the Fed will cut rates as early as March next year, compared to about 71% before the CPI data.

CICC Research Report pointed out that the general direction of inflation in the United States is still slowing down, but there is great uncertainty about the rhythm, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will be full of variables. If the Fed pivots to easing too soon, it could lead to a rebound in demand, which is not bad, increasing the risk of a "no-landing" and "secondary inflation" in the economy. As a result, investors should be more cautious about their expectations of rate cuts, as the Fed may not cut rates in March, as the market hopes, and the expectation of six rate cuts throughout the year may also be too aggressive.

CITIC Securities said that more Federal Reserve officials have recently said that the rate hike is enough to guide inflation back to the target level, but there is still controversy about the timing of interest rate cuts. Overall, US inflation is expected to slowly return to close to 2% this year, inflationary pressures will be more controllable, and the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is expected to be over. However, considering the resilience of the U.S. economy in the short term and the stickiness of inflation, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the timing of interest rate cuts, which are expected to be around the middle of this year.

Huatai Securities believes that looking ahead, although the CPI in December exceeded expectations month-on-month, the core PCE inflation that the Fed is concerned about may still be on the downside, and the December CPI data does not change the Fed's judgment on the trend of inflation in the United States, so it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in March and April at the earliest, and the cumulative interest rate cuts in 2024 will be 125-150 basis points.

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#1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([ data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1);-weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}