The era of AI has come, and AI PC is gradually becoming the main battlefield of this technological revolution.
Zhitong Financial APP learned that from January 9 to 12, 2024, the Global Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2024) will be held in Las Vegas, USA, to show the latest high-tech trends in the world. There are 4,000+ companies participating in the exhibition, including industry giants such as NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, Dell, Lenovo Group (00992) and HP, each showcasing AI chips and PC products, among which Lenovo's AI PC audience is eye-catching.
At CES, Lenovo Group unveiled more than 40 AI-based devices and solutions, including more than 10 AI PCs, such as the world's first ThinkBook Plus Gen 5 Hybrid that can seamlessly switch between laptop and tablet modes, and the world's first business AI PC, the ThinkPad X1 Carbon AI. China Securities Construction Investment released a research report, saying that CES 2024 leads the trend of artificial intelligence technology innovation, optimistic about AI+X multi-field empowerment, Lenovo, as the only target of AI PC in Hong Kong stocks, was affected by the news, opened sharply on the 9th, and closed up 4.53%.
In fact, AI PC is giving birth to the super cycle of the industry, and Lenovo Group is the first to enter the game, and it is expected to become the biggest beneficiary under the first-mover advantage and leading advantage.
AI PCs give rise to industry supercycles
Why is AI PC giving rise to a supercycle in the industry?
We know that human society has gone through the agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution and the information technology revolution, and each revolution has brought about multiple technological cycles, which are applied to different business forms, from introduction, diffusion, maturity to decline. Since entering the information technology revolution in 1980, technological iteration has given birth to different business cycles, such as the Internet, computers and smartphones, and each cycle has also given birth to huge business opportunities.
In fact, the underlying logic of the information technology revolution is semiconductors, and chips play a pivotal role in data storage, processing, computing power and traffic transmission. Taking 2009 as the dividing line, the iteration of chips has opened the era of intelligence, with transmission rates ranging from 3G, 4G to 5G, and scenarios from mobile phones, computers to the Internet of Things, and the technology cycle has been continuously shortened. In 2023, AI will stand on the stage, and AI will give chips "intelligence", opening a new technology cycle.
It is worth noting that AI, as an artificial intelligence technology, is not a new word, in the past, the technology development was not very mature, and the computing power could not support the application of scenarios, but in November 2022, OpenAI released the artificial intelligence model ChatGPT, and in 2023, it will set off a wave of AI applications, and AI will be officially launched. AI is of epoch-making significance, bringing a qualitative leap forward in social productivity and operational efficiency.
The AI revolution has brought huge business opportunities, and the current AI application is relatively hot and the hot investment theme in the market is mainly smart cars and PCs. Autonomous driving technology has become the commanding heights of the decisive battle of major car companies, but AI still has a lot of room for learning for road condition judgment and prediction, and safety is still the first consideration for most users.
AI PC will be the main battlefield of AI applications, mainly as follows: first, PC is more suitable for current AI application scenarios to meet various office needs; second, Lenovo has taken the lead in launching AI PC products, and also has the industry's strongest AI PC product lineup, and giants such as Intel and Qualcomm have launched AI PC chips, and PC has the foundation for upgrading; third, PC technology has been silent for many years, referring to traditional mobile phones in the past, the emergence of new things often drives the explosion of demand and conversely drives the full popularity of AI PC.
Data source: IDC, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
In 2024, the demand for AI PCs will explode, and after the launch, it will quickly replace the traditional PC market, just like the wave of smartphones that year, according to IDC's forecast, the penetration rate of AI PCs is expected to reach 81% by 2027. If calculated according to the global shipment of 349 million units in 2021 (only considering the peak and stock substitution), the penetration rate predicted by IDC will be 283 million AI PCs, and the market size is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan due to the price being more expensive than traditional PCs.
The "uniqueness" of Hong Kong stocks is worth looking forward to
Back at CES, HP, Dell and Lenovo Group all showcased their technologies and products, but Lenovo's more than 10 AI PCs were the most eye-catching in the entire exhibition. According to the research report of China Securities Construction Investment, most of the products that will be launched by peers are edge AI, such as XPS 14 9440 launched by Dell and a variety of game-themed products launched by HP, incorporating many AI elements, Lenovo is in a leading position in AI PC.
In fact, as mentioned above, the underlying logic of the technological revolution is semiconductors, and Lenovo has a long-term cooperative relationship with Intel and is in a leading position in the market in the research and development process of AI PC, so it can lead the industry change and take the lead in transforming into AI PC products. Lenovo's PC product market share has remained the world's first all year round, stable at 24%, with a very large user base, and AI PC will quickly occupy the stock market after its launch.
It is worth noting that Lenovo Group has been deploying AI for many years, and has continued to increase R&D investment to keep its technology at the world's leading level. The company's PC products account for more than 60% of its revenue, and it is expected that AI PCs will drive high shipment growth, thereby driving performance growth.
The ISG and SSG businesses are the company's dual engines, of which the three major SSG businesses have maintained double-digit growth, and the ability to empower the industry has been strengthened after comprehensive AI, stimulating broader market demand and accelerating the intelligence and digital intelligence of the industry. Lenovo has built AI+ products in all businesses, standing on the cusp of the times, with better product strength, activating stock substitution and incremental market demand, and maintaining the company's leading position in the industry under the first-mover advantage.
In addition to being at the forefront of AI hardware, Yang Yuanqing, chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, said: "In terms of AI ecology, Lenovo is in the best position to face customers directly. In addition, Yang Yuanqing also said that today's users increasingly need natural language interaction, call to applications, in terms of security and privacy, Lenovo attaches great importance to using the best technology to protect personal private data and personal privacy.
Lenovo Group was listed on the Hong Kong stock market relatively early, and it can be said that it has experienced multiple technology cycles, and has maintained an upward channel in market value throughout the cycle, but the increase in the cycle is the most gratifying. For example, in terms of data transmission rate cycle, in the 3G and 4G cycles, the company's market value rose for six consecutive years from 2009 to 2014, an increase of more than 4 times, and under the 5G cycle, it has increased by more than 1 times in the five years since 2019. Now, under the long-term cycle of AI PC, the company's market capitalization performance is worth looking forward to.
In fact, there have been large funds to deploy Lenovo Group in advance, taking southbound funds as an example, at the beginning of January 2023, the market value of southbound funds held by southbound funds was only HK $1.668 billion, and as of January 8, 2024, it increased to HK $6.33 billion, an increase of 279.5%. As the leader of AI PC and the only target of Hong Kong stocks, 2023 is also the first year of the industry, and investors voted a vote of confidence under certainty.
Under the AI PC super cycle, Lenovo Group is expected to become the "fragrant" of market funds, whether from the perspective of trend investment or value investment, let's wait and see in 2024.