In the next 5 years, we must be mentally prepared

Today's situation has turned the "financial giants" into hoodoons.

In the past, there were real estate giants represented by Evergrande, and then there were Cedar Holdings, and now the financial giant Zhongzhi system has come to an end.

Announcement of Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People's Court:

The debtor, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., Ltd., applied to the court for bankruptcy liquidation on the grounds that it could not pay off its debts due and its assets were insufficient to pay off all its debts, and it obviously lacked solvency.

After review, it was found that Zhongzhi Group's application met the bankruptcy reasons stipulated in the Enterprise Bankruptcy Law of the People's Daily of the People's Republic of China, so on January 5, it "ruled to accept the bankruptcy liquidation application of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., Ltd."

Founded in 1995, Zhongzhi has more than 1,500 companies, including the four major wealth companies. The industry covers trust, insurance, futures, public offering, private equity, finance, real estate, education, science and technology, new energy and other fields.

The scale of assets it holds, shares in and manages has reached 3.6 trillion yuan.

Proper behemoth.

A proper financial behemoth.

It's not just itself.

It represents the end of the previous era, the end of that model of wealth creation, the end of the logic of social development.

A basic rule is:

Every time the social model changes, a few old nobles will be killed to worship the sky.

I just don't know, can you smell a strange smell from the fallen dust of these old nobles?

The magic of the beginning of 2024 is just a continuation of the magic of the past few years.

Ukraine has launched a large-scale attack on the Russian mainland, the DPRK has declared that the north and the south are no longer one people, and then opened artillery demonstrations in the adjacent waters, and the Houthis have exchanged direct fire with the US military......

In contrast to the barrage, central banks continue to buy gold in large quantities.

According to the latest data released by the World Gold Council, global central bank purchases of gold in the first three quarters of 2023 increased by 14% year-on-year to a record 800 tonnes!

Among them, the central banks of China, Poland and Singapore are the main buyers of gold - China has increased its holdings for 11 consecutive months, becoming the world's largest gold buyer this year (reserves reached 2,191 tons, the world's sixth largest reserves, the United States ranked first 8,100 tons, and Germany ranked second with 3,300 tons).

This is the first vision.

The second vision is that wages are declining at a rate that is visible to the naked eye.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the average monthly salary for recruitment in 38 core cities across the country fell by 1.3% year-on-year to 10,420 yuan. This is the largest drop since 2016. It is also the third consecutive quarter of decline. For example, Beijing fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and Guangzhou fell by 4.5%.

In the past thirty or forty years, everyone has long been accustomed to growth.

Grow, grow, grow.

GDP growth, wage growth, insight growth, material abundance.

The fall of giants is not just giants. Its floating dust will contaminate every ordinary person, like the dust raised by iron hooves to cover ants.

In the days to come, we need to re-understand and adapt to it.

The third vision, the investment from the opposite mainland, has dropped sharply.

Direct investment in mainland China has dropped sharply in 2023, accounting for only 12% of its total investment, a record low.

However, at the same time, the foreign direct investment on the other side is still growing sharply (87% year-on-year growth in January ~ November), and the direct investment in the United States is 9 times that of the same period last year, and the investment in Germany has increased by 25 times.

Thinking back to the highlight of 2010, it is no longer what it used to be.

The fourth vision, which is not a vision.

It is still the inertia of the fall of the old aristocracy.

An "unknown" rating agency downgraded the ratings of four asset management companies on January 4. Downgraded Cinda and Dongfang from "A" to "A-", and Huarong and Great Wall from "BBB+" to "BBB".

He even "hypocritically" said that the downward adjustment was due to the weakening of monetary support and the sluggish housing market, and there may be further downward adjustments in the future.

Correspondingly, the pattern of the property market has changed greatly.

On the one hand, new projects in the suburbs are desperately discounted, and a second-tier city has a new project with a 6.2% discount (not stopped), and on the other hand, Changsha and Chengdu have grabbed the land king, and the two land premiums in the core area are as high as 43% and 36% respectively.

On the one hand, rents in first-tier cities are falling, and luxury rents are even diving, while on the other hand, coal bosses are entering the market to take land and buildings in Chengdu, Beijing, and Shanghai.

New houses cannot be sold, and the proportion of second-hand housing transactions has reached a record high: In 2023, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in 30 cities will reach 53%, which is the first time in history that it exceeds first-hand houses, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the country also accounts for 37.1% of all transaction volumes, which is also a record high.

This is equivalent to an official announcement that real estate has entered the era of stock.

Finally, it is on par with developed countries.

It is said to be a vision, but it is not a vision.

The grass gray snake line, the veins are thousands of miles.

The wind rose in 2018.

How to deal with it?

In the next five years, everyone should be mentally prepared.

And, be materially prepared – the way you think about wealth management is about to change.

My personal principles are:

See more and move less, if you can not move, you will not move, and if you do not move, you will win.

That is to say, the previous way of being greedy for more and more aggressive and increasing leverage will be completely discarded.

In fact, you can see from the name "Evergrande" that it is no longer in line with the style of today's times. Increasing leverage and seeking to grow in wealth would have snowballed in the first 30 years, but now it is categorically not feasible.

The way forward is:

Be safe and hedge.

Prudent refers to the transition from a high-risk and high-return track to a low-risk and low-return track;

Hedging refers to the allocation of both internal and external assets.

You know what I'm talking about.

So specifically, those who can combine "safe" and "hedging" will be calculated.

One of the tracks worthy of this role is Hong Kong insurance

。

The essence of buying insurance in Hong Kong is:

Allocate foreign currency assets prudently.

If you buy it in RMB now, it will be returned to you in the future: US dollars, Australian dollars, Singapore dollars, British pounds, etc.

Well, without further ado.

Once you understand the essence of it, everything else is minutiae.

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