Text: Understand the original Chedi Li Dezhe
A few days ago, the Passenger Association announced the production and sales of the domestic passenger car market in 2023. According to the data, the cumulative production of passenger cars in mainland China last year was 25.546 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and the annual retail and wholesale sales were 21.699 million and 25.531 million respectively, an increase of 5.6% and 10.2% year-on-year respectively.
In 2023, the retail sales of the auto market will reach 21.699 million units
As we all know, last year was the first year of complete liberalization after three years of epidemic prevention and control, and at the same time, the domestic auto market also experienced several rounds of nationwide "price wars" from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. The auto market pattern has undergone a deep "reshuffle" in the past year, and with the continuous growth of the new energy market, independent brands have also achieved a comprehensive surpass over joint venture brands.
At the same time as the annual sales data was released, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, also announced the average price of bicycles in the past five years and the change trend of the promotion of new traditional passenger cars.
The change trend of the promotion range of traditional passenger cars in the past five years
Judging from the released data, the average price of a single vehicle for luxury brands, joint venture brands and independent brands in 2023 will be 328,000 yuan, 164,200 yuan and 130,700 yuan respectively, while the average price of a single vehicle for passenger cars as a whole last year was 167,100 yuan.
It is worth noting that judging from the change trend of the promotion range of traditional passenger cars in the past five years, the discount rate of new cars in 2023 will increase from 12.2% in January to 18.6% in December at the end of the year, that is, the retail price of new cars is basically at the level of about 20%. Of course, among them, the joint venture brand has the largest price reduction.
The average price of new cars and bicycles in the past five years according to the statistics of the Passenger Car Association
And it can also be seen from the trend chart that compared with 2019 before the epidemic, June 2023 is not the highest point of the new car promotion discount rate, and the major car companies have made it clear that the car market in 2024 will be more "volume", so it can be predicted that the car market in 2024 may also have the so-called "off-peak season", and the end of the year is the time point when the new car discount is the largest.
In response to the market outlook for January 2024 and before the Spring Festival, the Federation of Passenger Cars said that in the past, before the Spring Festival was the peak season for new buyers to buy cars, and the purchases of some returning groups were released in January, which had a certain effect on the consumption of traditional fuel vehicles in the auto market. However, the promotion price of the auto market in December 2023 is particularly strong, and part of the demand for car purchases is released early, so January this year should be the stage of gradually recovering promotions and achieving stable sales. However, due to the low base caused by the early Spring Festival last year and the adjustment period after the policy withdrawal, there are still great expectations for the sharp growth of retail sales in January this year.
Can the auto market get off to a good start in 2024?
In addition, the Federation of Passenger Cars also pointed out that the largest shrinkage of the auto market in recent years is the A-class fuel vehicle market, which is also the mainstream market that first-time buyers are concerned about. Previously, the policy of stabilizing the consumption of fuel vehicles issued by the four national ministries and commissions is of great significance to stabilizing the consumption of the fuel vehicle market. In order to achieve a "good start" in the auto market in 2024, local governments and car companies also need to work together to come up with good policies. However, due to the fierce sprint in December, the inventory of dealers is high, and the pressure of destocking before the Spring Festival is greater, the wholesale sales in January this year will be significantly lower than the retail sales.