At the beginning of the new year, the Philippines dragged the United States to start a joint patrol in the South China Sea, trying to provoke disputes in the South China Sea again and undermine stability in the South China Sea. This made some ASEAN countries really unbearable, and the Indonesian president went around ASEAN and put forward two requirements to the Philippines, the South China Sea needs peace, no need to make trouble!
Without giving face, the Indonesian president made two demands, and the Philippines should value peace
On January 9, local time, Indonesian President Joko Widodo began his visit to ASEAN countries, and he will visit the Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei. The main topic of Jokowi's visit was to discuss with ASEAN countries how to resolve the South China Sea issue and trade issues.
Before Jokowi left, he reminded the Philippines that the Philippines is an important partner of Indonesia and that Indonesia has a considerable amount of investment in the Philippines. In April last year, the Philippines purchased six light aircraft from Indonesia. Jokowi has said that Indonesia hopes to become the "locomotive of peace, stability and prosperity" in ASEAN.
During his visit to the Philippines, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno mentioned that Indonesia is ready to work with other Southeast Asian countries to finalize the long-delayed Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. It seems that Indonesia has put forward two requirements to the Philippines, one of which is that ASEAN countries should maintain good cooperation and trade and maintain the current environment for peaceful development. Second, finalize the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea to ensure long-term stability in the South China Sea.
Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN and the most influential country in ASEAN, and the statements made by Jokowi and Indonesia's foreign minister reflect Indonesia's mentality of seeking peace and development, and hope that ASEAN countries can maintain unity and jointly safeguard the current hard-won peaceful development situation.
The Philippines is backed by the United States, and ASEAN faces three major challenges
Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Indonesia's foreign minister have not made their demands for no reason, as they have found that the Philippines, in collusion with the United States, has muddied the waters of the South China Sea, and ASEAN faces three major challenges.
First, ASEAN will become a bridgehead for US hegemony. Since last year, the Philippines has been pulling US forces into intervening in the South China Sea in an attempt to seize the resources of islands and reefs in the South China Sea with the back of the United States, triggering a geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States. If the Philippines is allowed to mess around, the long-awaited peace situation of ASEAN countries will be broken, and not only the Philippines, but also Indonesia, Vietnam, and other countries will be forced to take sides.
Second, ASEAN may miss out on the Chinese market. China is ASEAN's most important investment and trade partner, and neither Indonesia nor the Philippines will open China's investment and construction. As far as ASEAN countries are concerned, if they want to live a good life, they must of course have good relations with China, and the behavior of the Philippines has undermined the good relations between ASEAN and China as a whole. Indonesia, as the founding member of ASEAN and the largest country in ASEAN, does not want to see the Philippines mess around. The finalization of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea is the best way to ensure ASEAN's stability.
In addition, in the great power game between China and the United States, ASEAN may become the forefront of military confrontation. The ASEAN region has a large population, and once China and the United States engage in a military confrontation in Southeast Asia, it will trigger a crisis of millions of refugees. In the midst of peace and war, ASEAN, led by Indonesia, naturally wants to choose the former.
Jokowi's reminder is timely, whether Marcos can pull back from the precipice
Jokowi's reminder is timely, and he hopes that the Philippines will not act as a pawn of the United States, but should focus on the development of the Philippines and ASEAN. In the face of Jokowi's external pressure, Marcos didn't know if he would listen to it and stop the precipice in time.
In fact, the internal struggle in the Philippines is intensifying. Marcos's sister opposes the opening of military bases to the United States and opposes excessive provocations against China. And Sarah, the daughter of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, was opposed by Marcos supporters, forcing Duterte to say that he was ready to make a comeback. If Duterte returns, the Philippines will likely return to a pro-China line.
There are two forces in the Philippines, one is the pro-US force represented by the current President Marcos, who believe that relying on the United States can allow the Philippines to grab some benefits and take advantage of China. On the other hand, there are pro-China forces led by former President Rodrigo Duterte, who oppose provocations against China and advocate maintaining long-term cooperation with China to promote the development of the Philippines.
As Marcos turned to the United States, the Philippines took a tough stance on the outside world, and domestic opposition to Marcos came and went. Some people in the Philippines have called for improving relations with China, saying that Marcos's policy is extremely stupid, and that Marcos's move will not make the Philippines better, but will push the Philippines into the geopolitical whirlpool of Sino-US confrontation and plunge the Philippines into the quagmire of war.
In the face of internal and external pressure, it is difficult to say whether the Marcos administration will change its tough stance on China. But what is certain is that as long as the United States does not give up supporting Marcos, then the Philippines will still rush ahead against China, and the situation in the South China Sea will not be stable. To this end, China still needs to maintain a high degree of vigilance, take tough measures to curb the provocative momentum of the Philippines, safeguard national interests, and ensure channels for dialogue.