At the close of trading today, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2,877.70 points, down 0.54 percent, the Shenzhen Component Index was at 8,922.79 points, down 0.55 percent, and the ChiNext Index was at 1,743.20 points, down 0.43 percent. The turnover of the two cities was 647 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and more than 3,800 stocks fell. Today, the net inflow of northbound funds was 2.580 billion yuan and the net purchase was 690 million yuan.
Today's disk continued to be weak, the three major indexes accelerated their decline at the opening of the morning, and there were incremental funds around 10 o'clock to try to pry the market, the FTSE A50 rose nearly 1% in a straight line, and the highest net inflow in the north exceeded 3 billion, and the science and technology 50 ETF also showed rapid volume, and the three major indexes turned red, but the upper selling pressure was too great, and the index fell again after noon.
Overall, there is still pressure on the index to adjust:
- Today, the main force continued to have a net outflow of more than 16 billion, and the volume accelerated at the end of the session, and the selling pressure has not been fully released;
- Today's index bottom is still moving downward;
- Today's strong sectors are mainly liquor and photovoltaic sectors that have rebounded from the fall, and lack sustainability;
-Turnover continued to shrink, and financial confidence remained low.
However, after the index quickly smashed a new low in early trading, there are already signs of funds trying to enter the market, and some over-falling sectors have refused to fall further, although the follow-up index still continues to explore the pressure, but the low is expected to appear in the intraday, and there is not much room for a sharp decline in the close. In addition, today's news of interest rate cuts, RRR cuts, and LPR cuts is still rumored, but for the inflection point on the right side of the market, the central bank has begun to accelerate the release of liquidity can be an important signal.
Tomorrow's attention:
1. Whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stand above the 5-day moving average;
2. Whether the amount of energy can be put to more than 800 billion;
3. Whether the central bank has measures to release liquidity such as interest rate cuts and RRR cuts;
4. The 2024 performance forecast of listed companies;
5. In addition to the over-falling plates, the theme plates that can resonate with the index.
Overview of the broader market
On January 10, the three major A-share indices collectively closed down. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2,877.70 points, down 0.54 percent, with a turnover of 281.2 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Component Index was at 8,922.79 points, down 0.55 percent, with a turnover of 365.8 billion yuan, and the ChiNext Index was at 1,743.20 points, down 0.43 percent, with a turnover of 145.1 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 647 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and more than 3,800 shares fell.
In terms of capital flow, the net inflow of northbound funds was 2.580 billion yuan and the net purchase was 690 million yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 1.218 billion yuan and the net purchase was 257 million yuan, and the net inflow of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 1.362 billion yuan and the net purchase was 433 million yuan.
The net outflow of main funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 14.605 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 4.049 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 10.557 billion yuan, the net outflow of medium orders was 2.253 billion yuan, and the net inflow of small orders was 16.859 billion yuan.
In terms of plates:
Photovoltaic equipment, beauty care, food and beverage, commodity department stores and brewing industries, as well as tax refund shops, lotions, supply and marketing cooperatives and prepared food concepts were among the top gainers.
The photovoltaic equipment sector rose by 2.16%, of which SolaX Energy rose by more than 16%, Deye shares and Aikang Technology rose by the limit, Dike shares rose by more than 7%, and Jinlang Technology, GoodWe and Arctech rose by more than 5%.
In the beauty care sector, Bethany rose 8.30%, and Runben shares, Aimeike, Bloomage Biotechnology, and Yanjiang shares rose more than 5%.
In the food and beverage sector, Three Squirrels, Gaishi Food, Runpu Video, McQuor, Huifa Food, and BESTORE rose by 9.85%.
Liquor stocks rebounded, Shede Liquor rose more than 6%, and Jiugui Liquor and Laiyifen rose more than 4%.
The concept of prefabricated dishes is strong, Huifa Food, Quanjude have a daily limit, Xi'an Diet, Gui Faxiang, Renrenle, etc. have risen by more than 5%;
In terms of decline, cultural media, games, communication services, consumer electronics, Internet services, and software development were among the top decliners.
Culture and media stocks fell sharply, Shanghai Film fell to the limit, China Television Media fell more than 8%, Fengyuzhu fell more than 7%, and Century Tianhong and Zhidu shares fell more than 6%.
Game stocks were among the top decliners, with Palmfun Technology falling more than 6%, Shengtian Network falling more than 5%, and Youzu Network falling more than 4%.
In the communication services sector, Desheng Technology fell to the limit, Hengxin Oriental fell by more than 9%, and Yitong Century and Zhongbei Communication fell by more than 4%.
In the consumer electronics sector, Emdoor Information and Huiwei Technology fell to the limit, Li Tong Electronics and Green Precision fell by more than 8%, and G.Tech Technology and Yingli fell by more than 6%.
Market analysis
Overall: Orient Securities believes that the current market consensus is that A-shares are basically in the bottom area, and the downward momentum is gradually exhausted, but the rebound force still needs to be further gathered.
The research report of Galaxy Securities believes that in 2024, there is a high probability that A-shares will fluctuate upward, but the current international geopolitical factors are constantly disturbed, and there are disturbances to investors' risk appetite. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the growth value style in the first half of 2024 is relatively balanced, but with the shift of overseas monetary policy, the possibility of growth stocks dominating in the second half of the year will gradually increase.
Soochow Securities said that China's asset prices will usher in a recovery in 2024, and the valuation of related core asset varieties that have fallen the most in the past two and a half years is more certain, while the corresponding micro-cap style and high-dividend style may be affected by style rotation and weaken.
China Securities said that it is still necessary to pay attention to position management before the market is effectively exerted, and it can be appropriately arranged on dips, and continue to pay attention to the important economic data to be released this week. In terms of allocation direction, the current market style is still defensive, benefiting from the high certainty of return brought by the dividend yield and the valuation repair under the logic of low-risk assets Bank stocks can keep an eye on; pan-technology, large consumption and other industries that the country intends to lay out for a long time can also wait for opportunities, such as AI+ subdivision track, semiconductors, intelligent driving, etc.; in addition, the rotational opportunities brought about by the economic recovery such as construction, cement, and nonferrous metals can also be properly noted. In the medium to long term, the technology growth sector remains the focus.
Judging from the trend of the representative sectors:
▍Photovoltaic equipment:
Changjiang Securities pointed out in the research report that it believes that the marginal supply and demand level of photovoltaic panels will continue to improve: 1) the European market will accelerate the destocking, and related companies will raise their shipment expectations, 2) the non-European and American overseas markets will exceed expectations, supporting the continuous growth of demand, 3) the production schedule will be differentiated in January, and the signal of production capacity clearance has begun to appear, and 4) the price of P-type silicon wafers will take the lead in rebounding during the P-to-N period.
Haitong Securities believes that the photovoltaic sector has continued to adjust since the beginning of the year, and has fully responded to the possible intensification of competition in the industry, and the current valuation level has been lower than the 18-year trough;
▍Prefabricated Dish Concept:
On the news, according to Securities Daily, the Spring Festival in 2024 is coming, and a recent visit found that Chinese New Year's Eve dinner reservations are hot, and some restaurants even have a "hard to find" situation. On the Taobao platform, the sales volume of a Buddha jumping over the wall pre-made dish priced at about 500 yuan has exceeded 10,000 copies.
Donghai Securities believes that the long-term trend of the prefabricated food industry is improving, on the one hand, the demand side, the demand for catering is strong, and the chain rate continues to increase; on the other hand, on the supply side, the cold chain logistics is gradually improving, helping the sales radius of prefabricated food to expand.
▍Beauty Treatments:
On the news side, Aimeike previously released the 2023 annual performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.81-1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%-50%.
China Post Securities Research Report pointed out that the medical cosmetology industry will recover significantly in 2023, and looking forward to 2024, collagen, regeneration, and water and light products will maintain a high degree of prosperity, and manufacturers with related product layouts are expected to continue to increase their share.
Caixin Securities believes that the rise of emerging channels in the beauty care industry, brands with keen insight, strong marketing power and complete supply chain are expected to take the lead in seizing traffic dividends; cost-effective domestic brands may continue their early advantages; and are optimistic about the rise of new tracks such as collagen, regeneration, weight loss and botulinum.
▍Supply and marketing cooperatives:
On the news side, recently, ST Daji announced that the company and the new supply and marketing fund related parties China Supply and Marketing Trade Circulation Group Co., Ltd., Beijing Zhonghe Rural Credit Enterprise Management Consulting Co., Ltd., and Zhonghe Investment Co., Ltd. signed the "Supply and Marketing Daji Group Co., Ltd. Investment Agreement", supply and marketing trade, Zhonghe Rural Credit Co., Ltd., and Zhonghe Lian as industrial investors to purchase a total of 2.6 billion shares of increased shares with cash of 1.3 billion yuan. After the completion of this investment, the actual controller of the company will be changed to the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives. After the news was exposed, the concept of supply and marketing cooperatives began to show a strong trend.
On December 23, 2023, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Post Bureau, the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, and the China Post Group jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Integrated Development of Rural Passenger, Freight and Mail" to further promote the integrated development of rural passenger transport, freight logistics, and postal express delivery, and better meet the needs of rural people for travel, freight logistics, and delivery services.
Northeast Securities believes that supply and marketing cooperatives, as the main channel for the circulation of agricultural materials, are expected to continue to strengthen the core function and help rural revitalization in the future under the promotion of policies.
Guojin Securities said that supply and marketing cooperatives, as one of the important circulation channels in rural areas of the mainland, can provide relatively flat sales channels for agricultural products, thereby reducing the cost of farmers to purchase agricultural materials. In addition, the supply and marketing cooperatives to participate in the agricultural sales link is also conducive to the integration of agricultural enterprises in the mainland, thereby driving the industry concentration to increase, itself belongs to the supply and marketing cooperatives system or can cut into the supply and marketing cooperatives agricultural sales system of enterprises are expected to benefit.
Message-wise
1. On January 10, it was reported that the General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Several Measures to Further Promote the High-quality Development of Shanghai's Equity Investment Industry". Carry out the distribution of shares in kind by equity investment funds on a pilot basis. The pre-IPO shares of qualified listed companies held by equity investment funds will be distributed to fund investors through non-transaction transfer, and the coverage of the pilot will be expanded in an orderly manner. (Positive market sentiment)
2. According to the information disclosed by the Asset Management Association of China, on January 8, Guofeng Xinghua (Beijing) Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. officially completed the registration and filing. From the perspective of the filing process, the company submitted the application for the first time on December 28, 2023, began to handle it on January 3 this year, and completed the registration and filing on January 8, which took less than 4 trading days. Even according to the time of the establishment of the company, it is less than 20 days before and after the official registration and filing, which can be said to be the "speed of light" to complete the filing. Previously, Xinhua Insurance announced that it would jointly invest 25 billion yuan with Chinese Life to jointly initiate the establishment of a private securities investment fund Co., Ltd., tentatively named "Honghu Private Securities Investment Fund Co., Ltd." At the same time, Xinhua Asset, a holding subsidiary of the company, and China Life Asset, a subsidiary of Chinese Life Holdings, plan to jointly establish a fund manager company with a capital of 5 million yuan, tentatively named "Guofeng Xinghua Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd.", to serve as the manager of the above-mentioned private equity fund company. (Positive market sentiment)
3. Thirteen departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued a notice on speeding up the construction of "broadband frontiers", and the scope of implementation of the notice includes land border counties (cities, districts, banners) in nine border provinces (regions) along the border provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Yunnan, Tibet, Gansu and Xinjiang, and border regiments of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, and counties (cities and districts) with coastlines in 11 coastal provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan. By the end of 2025, 5G and gigabit optical networks will be available to counties and towns in border areas, 100% of administrative villages, rural areas with more than 20 households, border management and trade institutions, and inhabited islands will have broadband access (including optical fiber, 4G, or 5G); mobile network coverage will be basically achieved along border national and provincial highways; and network coverage will be achieved in inland sea areas on demand. (Good for the communication services sector)
4. Goldman Sachs expects the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index to return 17% and 19% respectively in 2024, as corporate earnings will grow by about 10%. (Positive market sentiment)
5. Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview that he would actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries. At present, the mainland's strategic emerging industries account for about 13% of GDP, and we must coordinate technological innovation, large-scale development and application scenario construction, actively develop new quality productivity, and strive to seize the commanding heights of global industrial competition. It is necessary to cultivate more new pillars and new tracks. Make good use of the large domestic market and rich application scenarios, develop and expand emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and intelligent networked vehicles, promote the large-scale application of Beidou in the field of communications and mass consumption, and actively cultivate new growth points such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy. It is necessary to look forward to the layout of future industries. Formulate and implement policy documents for cultivating future industries, promote the research and development and application promotion of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, the metaverse, the next-generation Internet, 6G, quantum information, and deep-sea aerospace development, and build new advantages for future development. (Good for artificial intelligence, 6G concept plate)
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