What does it mean to continuously measure the bottom?

On January 10, the market still failed to close out of the red plate after all, and finally returned to the trend of shrinkage adjustment.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.54%, hitting a new recent low of 2,870.42 points during the session, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.55%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.43%.

In terms of sectors, snack food led the gains, photovoltaics, energy storage, lithium batteries, liquor, medical beauty and other traditional tracks rebounded significantly, and concepts such as cloud games, short drama concepts, and data rights confirmation were among the top decliners.

In terms of individual stocks, it once again returned to the pattern of falling more and rising less, with more than 3,800 stocks falling in the two cities, and only 647 billion yuan was traded in the two cities throughout the day, shrinking again from Tuesday.

Northbound funds bought for the second consecutive trading day, but the net buying was smaller, only 690 million yuan, of which 257 million yuan was net bought in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and 433 million yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

First, let's sort out how the index works.

In early trading today, the index behaved in the same way as on Tuesday, but weaker than yesterday. After opening low, the Shanghai Composite Index fell all the way down, falling to a recent low of 2870 points, and then launched a counteroffensive and once floated red. The ChiNext index performed a little stronger, falling more than 1% in the morning, and then rising more than 1% in the backhand, giving people a feeling of bottoming out.

However, "handsome for only three seconds"! Before the end of the morning, various indices turned green again, and there was not the slightest intention of counterattacking throughout the afternoon. In the end, the rally ended in failure again.

Judging from the performance of the index in the past two days, the following points can be summarized:

First, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back below 2900 points, and after each morning killing, it can be pulled back by the "invisible hand", indicating that the point has been at an absolute low level, and in the short term, there is little room to continue to fall.

Second, although the stock index can be pulled back after the fall, the rebound on Tuesday is very weak, and Wednesday is even weaker to close the yin, the root cause is the lack of confidence, the trading volume is seriously sluggish, resulting in the market showing a narrow range of shocks, this is a typical grinding bottom trend, when to grind out the bottom, need a significant volume. Either the volume is large-scale to kill the fall, not to break or stand, or to quickly counterattack in volume, and truly usher in the "short-selling".

Third, after today's market closes in the negative, it is necessary to re-examine Tuesday's small white candlestick. Previously, we judged that if Wednesday can close the positive line again, then it is likely to be a signal of a short-term bottom. But if it closes again, then Tuesday's small white candle is a downward relay, and the market may adjust in the future.

Fourth, when will we really see the bottom? Looking back at the last time an important bottom was established on October 31, 2022, when the Shanghai Composite Index established a bottom at 2885 points.

At that time, in late October 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index shrank at 3,000 points, and although there was a "double bottom" feature, the establishment of the real bottom was the two-day break on October 28 and 29. Subsequently, on November 1, the volume closed out of the long yang line, and then continued to attack, continuously recovering two important integer levels of 2900 points and 3000 points, establishing the advent of a phased rebound market.

Next, let's take a look at the hot sectors of today's market.

Today's best performer is the daily chemical industry, that is, the medical beauty sector that was a smash hit in the past two years. In the sector, Blonde Rabi, Yuexin Health, Bethany rose 8.3%, and Aimeike, Bloomage Biotechnology, and Langzi Shares, three old bull stocks, rose more than 5%.

The medical aesthetic sector peaked in mid-2021, and then after more than two years of continuous adjustment, the decline has been large. Medical cosmetology stocks had a collective rise on December 28 last year, when Aimeike's daily limit was up, and in the past three trading days, the medical cosmetology sector has increased in volume, and I feel that there are still funds to buy the bottom.

On the news side, on January 5, Aimeike announced last year's performance forecast, and it is expected that last year's net profit will be 181 million yuan ~ 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43% ~ 50%.

Secondly, large consumption areas such as food, retail, and liquor also performed well today. For example, stocks such as McQuor, Huifa Food, BESTORE, Yanjin Shop, Black Sesame, Gui Faxiang, and Anjing Food are all representatives of the agricultural and sideline food sector.

In addition, liquor stocks also strengthened again, with second- and third-tier liquor stocks such as Shede Liquor, Jiuguijiu, Huangtai Liquor, and Kouzijiao leading the gains, while Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu rose to a lesser extent.

The strength of food and liquor stocks is mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival and the increase in demand in the consumer sector ushering in the peak season. In addition, the news is also supported, the National Business Work Conference emphasized that in 2024, it is necessary to promote the continuous expansion of consumption, improve the market and circulation system, and take the "Consumption Promotion Year" as the main line to do a good job in various consumption promotion activities.

The third is the photovoltaic inverter sector, Deye shares have a strong limit, and energy storage concepts such as Jinlang Technology, GoodWe, and Yuneng Technology have strong performance.

For this sector, talking too much about fundamental factors can only give yourself confidence and be able to continue to rebound, but the root cause is still falling too much, and the main funds are bottoming out. In fact, several sectors such as liquor, lithium batteries, and medical beauty are also similar.

It remains to be seen whether these sectors can turn from short-term hot spots to sustainable ones. Recently, what really has a continuous money-making effect is actually in high-dividend sectors such as coal and electricity.

Finally, take a look at the inflow and outflow of northbound funds, which has a very typical reference significance in the past two days.

This morning, northbound funds were net sellers, because there was a wave of buying at the end of yesterday, and the index was red, and the profits were cashed out in the short term early this morning.

Then the index hit a new low, and the northbound funds quickly made up for it, not asking how much they could make, but only seeking "short-term and fast", so as soon as the index turned red, it was gradually sold. At the end of today, although the index did not improve much, the northbound funds quietly bought it back, and the purchase volume was not large, with a total of less than 700 million. The operation of "smart funds" is also likely to indicate that they are not pessimistic about the market outlook, repeatedly buying the bottom, repeatedly making price differences, and fighting for the rhythm.

Investments are risky, and independent judgment is important

This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading, and you enter the market at your own risk.

Every reporter Zeng Zijian and every editor Peng Shuiping

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rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{ background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body: not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([ data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1);-weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear: both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}