Surging News reporter Ji Simin Source: The Paper
[Editor's note]
It has been two years since the "new real estate model" was first mentioned at the 2021 Central Economic Work Conference, and with the changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, the necessity and urgency of exploring the new model have further increased.
In November 2023, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, explained in detail the "new model of real estate development" for the first time in an interview with Xinhua News Agency, which mainly elaborated on the ideas and considerations for building a new development model from the concept, institutional mechanism and implementation.
In an interview with The Paper, industry insiders said that in the follow-up, the planning and construction of affordable housing and other "three major projects" is the key breakthrough direction for building a new model of real estate development. So, what impact will the new model have on the property market?
Pattern change: The housing system presents a dual-track pattern
Recently, with the construction of more than 10,000 units of affordable housing for sale in Fuzhou, Shenzhen and other places, a new round of affordable housing construction has been officially launched. What is the impact of the new round of affordable housing construction on the property market and whether it will have a further impact on the price of commercial housing has become a topic of concern.
Wang Yeqiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Real Estate Committee of the China Urban Economics Association, pointed out in an interview with The Paper that the new round of affordable housing construction is a perfect and supplementary housing system with Chinese characteristics. In the current downturn in the overall property market, the construction and investment of affordable housing is conducive to stimulating the recovery of housing investment, expanding market demand, and boosting confidence in the property market. In particular, for the situation that there is already an oversupply in some cities and individual areas, the central government has proposed that the construction of affordable housing for allocation, such as the approved unbuilt land recovered in accordance with the law, the housing and land that has been judicially disposed of, is conducive to alleviating the current structural contradictions in the housing market.
Li Xiao, director of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, pointed out in an interview with The Paper that a new round of affordable housing construction is an important part and important measure of the new dual-track system of real estate. Among them, the construction of affordable housing and the closed management of affordable housing are the symbols, and the affordable housing is one track to meet the housing needs of the low-income strata; the liberalization of land price limits is the forerunner, and the gradual liberalization of administrative control is the representative of the market-oriented solution to the housing needs of the middle and high-income strata, which is the other track of the dual-track system.
"The future housing system presents a dual-track pattern, and in the future, the scale and pace of development of affordable housing will gradually be faster than that of commercial housing. Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said in an interview with The Paper that under the dual-track system in the future, the pace of affordable housing construction and development will be further accelerated, especially in 35 pilot cities with a population of more than 3 million in urban areas. This is an important way to solve the problem of "home ownership", but from the perspective of the construction and listing supply of affordable housing, the supply of affordable rental housing will account for a high proportion in the future.
In Li Xiao's view, "marketization, after decades of development, the market supply has been very mature, and what is currently lacking is affordable housing, so a new round of affordable housing construction is accelerating the make-up class." Once the affordable housing track catches up, it will have a multifaceted impact on the property market. On the one hand, it is conducive to improving people's livelihood, promoting the healthy development of the real estate market, and conducive to the steady and healthy development of investment and the real estate market. On the other hand, it can alleviate the housing difficulties of urban low-income families, solve the structural contradictions of housing, and promote the steady development of urbanization and the real estate market. In addition, for areas with high pressure on stock housing, it will increase the difficulty of removing unsold projects. ”
Concept change: commercial housing returns to the "commodity" attribute
For the current commercial housing market, Zhang Bo believes that although the listing scale of commercial housing will tend to decrease in the future, the product strength will be more improved. Whether it is a private enterprise or a central state-owned enterprise, the construction of commercial housing must go out of the original standardized products, several sets of houses, several community styles to play the national routine. Since commercial housing will return to the "commodity" attribute in the future, that is, the housing price will be determined by market supply and demand, and the per capita living area of many cities has reached a high level, if we cannot create more high-quality products that can better meet the demand, it will be difficult to perform well in the market in the future.
Li Xiao mentioned in an interview with The Paper that the current overall policy intention is to promote in accordance with the positioning of the "dual-track system", and under this judgment, the construction and supply of affordable housing should be a reasonable judgment. "I think that the overall scale of the follow-up placement type of affordable housing will be greatly improved, but it will not occupy a major position in the affordable housing system. ”
Among them, a prominent feature of the new round of affordable housing construction is that it has expanded a new way of placing affordable housing. Recently, Shenzhen, Fuzhou, Nanning and other places have all landed to explore the placement of affordable housing.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, the first batch of 13 placement affordable housing projects in Shenzhen were started, with a total land area of 177,000 square meters, a construction area of 757,000 square meters of placement affordable housing, a total investment of about 12.5 billion yuan, and a total of more than 10,000 sets of housing.
The improvement of the security system is conducive to the further marketization of commercial housing
With the start of the first batch of placement type affordable housing, for the placement type of affordable housing will affect the commercial housing market, Wang Yeqiang pointed out that the construction of placement type affordable housing is a useful supplement to the housing security system, strictly speaking, the existing common property rights housing, talent housing are all placement type of affordable housing, the difference is that the current proposed placement type of affordable housing adopts a closed operation mode, which is more conducive to the function of housing security. The future housing system is to adopt the model of "security + market", and for the commercial housing of the market system, its price is completely determined by the market supply and demand, with ups and downs. As for affordable housing, the price of affordable housing is much lower than the market price if the principle of guaranteeing capital and small profits is adopted.
Zhang Bo also mentioned that the relationship between affordable housing and commercial housing is a combination of each other, rather than competition. Due to the obvious difference between the two customer groups and cannot be transferred to each other, the improvement of the affordable housing system is conducive to further opening up the policy space for market-oriented regulation and control in the field of commercial housing, which will promote the better development of commercial housing in the direction of high quality and better meet the needs of medium and high-end improvement. Promoting the new model of real estate development will be an important measure in the next round of real estate cycle, and among the "three major projects", the transformation of affordable housing and urban villages is closely related to the dual-track system, and it is also an important measure for the orderly implementation of the new real estate model.
Li Xiao mentioned, "From the market level, the placement of housing may affect the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market to a certain extent, but the specific impact on the price of commercial housing needs to be comprehensively analyzed in combination with the market conditions and policies of various places." ”
"In the future, on the land supply side, more land for affordable housing will be allocated for land, and at the same time, the long-term operation of the project will be taken into account. Affordable rental housing will adopt a multi-channel co-construction approach, which may not necessarily be completely solved by the new land supply. The land involved in the improvement of residential buildings will still be auctioned, mainly for the commercial housing market. Since the coverage groups of commercial housing and affordable housing do not coincide, more will develop in the direction of mid-to-high-end improvement in the future, and buyers who want to pursue higher quality and larger areas can only choose among commercial housing. Zhang Bo said.