The international authoritative scientific and technological journals "Nature" and "Science" have recently looked forward to the scientific events worth paying attention to in 2024, which have many intersections, including the development and regulation of artificial intelligence, the intensification and response to climate change, medical progress and public policy after the new crown, etc. The high degree of consistency shows that scientific and technological innovation plays an irreplaceable role in solving important global problems, and it is important for all countries to work together to solve common challenges and scientific problems.
The predictions of the two major journals for the annual "headlines" of science and technology undoubtedly place high hopes on mankind for science: only the light of reason and humanity can guide the world through the fog of uncertainty and illuminate the future of mankind.
- Editor
artificial intelligence
The capacity has been continuously enhanced, and the implementation of new regulations has been accelerated
Artificial intelligence (AI) is undoubtedly the hottest keyword in the tech sector in 2023. For the first time, Nature magazine included ChatGPT, a "non-human", in its inventory of the people of the year. Entering the new year, AI is still an unavoidable topic.
In its scientific outlook for this year, Nature mentioned that OpenAI is expected to release GPT-5 in the second half of this year, and as a next-generation AI model for ChatGPT, it will show more powerful capabilities than GPT-4.
At the same time, OpenAI's rival Google is also developing a large language model, Gemini. It can handle the input of many types of data, including text, computer code, images, audio, and video. This year, a new version of Google's DeepMind AI tool, AlphaFold, will also be released. Researchers are already using the tool to predict the three-dimensional structure of proteins with high accuracy, and in the future it will be able to model interactions between proteins, nucleic acids, and other molecules with atomic precision, which will open up new possibilities for drug design and new drug discovery.
However, the rapid development of AI has also brought a series of social problems, and governments around the world will step up regulatory measures to this end. In their outlook for 2024, Nature and Science have focused on AI regulation.
According to Nature, there are still significant global issues in AI regulation, and the United Nations Senior Advisory Body on AI will release its final report in the middle of this year to set guidelines for international AI regulation.
Science predicts that a series of AI regulatory plans announced by governments around the world in 2023 may accelerate this year. The U.S. government announced last November that it would set standards for the responsible development of AI. The country's parliamentarians have introduced more than 150 bills on AI regulation. These policies need to be implemented at the level of specific regulations, which will be a difficult task for many departments in the United States. The EU seems to be closer to introducing moral guarantees. However, due to the power and rapid development of new AI applications, these specific regulations may soon become obsolete.
Improved Mosquito
Blocking dengue fever is effective and is expected to be popularized on a large scale
The journal Science predicts that after a series of successful experiments, the strategy of preventing dengue transmission by releasing modified mosquitoes is expected to be rolled out on a large scale this year.
Developed and tested by the non-profit organization World Mosquito Programme (WMP), the aegyptian mosquito mosquito carries Wolbachia. When these mosquitoes mate with wild mosquitoes, the bacteria prevent the latter from spreading certain viruses and prevent them from passing on the virus to their offspring.
To measure the effectiveness of Wolbach's mosquitoes, WMP and partners conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial in a 26-square-kilometer area in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In June 2021, peer-reviewed results published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that Wolbachia mosquito release reduced dengue incidence by 77% and hospitalization by 86%.
In addition, researchers reported in the fall of 2023 that dengue cases in the release area were reduced by at least 95% in the largest trial of modified mosquito continuous release to date in Colombia's Abra Valley.
At present, WMP has carried out projects in 14 countries, and the scale of cooperation is constantly expanding. The organization plans to build the world's largest Wolbach mosquito production base in Brazil, which will begin operations this year. WMP said it expects the World Health Organization (WHO) to issue official guidance this year on the deployment of these mosquitoes, which could push more countries to adopt such measures.
Nature also mentions that WMP will start producing modified mosquitoes at a factory in Brazil this year. According to the WHO, a total of 2.8 million cases of dengue fever were reported in the Americas in 2022, with Brazil having the second highest incidence with 1,104.5 cases per 100,000 people. The production and release of these modified mosquitoes in Brazil could protect up to 70 million people from diseases such as dengue fever and Zika. The magazine also said the nonprofit will produce up to 5 billion improved mosquitoes a year over the next decade.
Scott O'Neill, head of WMP and professor of microbiology at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, said they can currently produce 10 million modified mosquitoes a week, and 100 million a week if they are to reach their target of 5 billion per year. He said that this will require more automated equipment and more precise production conditions. To do this, they will build fully automated equipment in Brazil.
Outbreak response
Approve the "Pandemic Agreement" and announce the efficacy of "Long COVID".
According to the journal Nature, as the world moves past the emergency phase of the pandemic, the U.S. government is funding trials of three next-generation vaccines. Two of them are nasal spray vaccines, which prevent infection by creating immunity in the body's airway tissues, and the other is an mRNA vaccine that enhances antibody and T-cell responses, promising to provide the body with long-lasting immunity against the new coronavirus variant.
In May this year, the final draft of the "pandemic agreement" will be submitted to the 77th World Health Assembly of the WHO for approval. The draft aims to better prepare governments to prevent and manage future outbreaks. The 194 WHO Member States will determine the content of the agreement's provisions, including whether any legally binding provisions will be made. At the heart of the negotiations on the draft is ensuring that countries have equal access to the tools they need to prevent the pandemic, including vaccines, data and expertise.
Science magazine focused on post-COVID sequelae. Four years after the outbreak of the pandemic, millions of people around the world are still weakened by "long COVID", with symptoms including unbearable fatigue, persistent headaches, and shortness of breath. As there is currently no definitive and effective treatment, patients and doctors are experimenting with various medications and dietary supplements.
This year, scientists are hopeful that some potential treatments for long COVID will lead to the first clinical trial results, although they are still tentative. Even if these treatments are unsuccessful, scientists hope to get a clear picture of the characteristics of "long COVID" from the results of the trials, and from there, determine what to test next.
Explore the solar system
"Clipper" rushed to Europa, and "Orion" flew around the moon
In October, NASA plans to launch the $5 billion Europa Clipper probe on SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket, according to Science magazine. This is NASA's most expensive planetary science launch mission since the Viking Mars rover in the 70s of the last century.
Europa is one of Jupiter's large moons, with an ice shell only a few kilometers thick and a vast ocean below. According to NASA's official website, liquid water is the primary component of life, and Europa has a lot of water. Scientists believe that the saltwater ocean beneath Europa's ice crust contains about twice as much water as all of Earth's oceans. They believe that Europa has a rocky seabed at the bottom of the ocean, and that hydrothermal activity on the seafloor may provide chemical nutrients that guarantee the survival of living things.
The Clipper probe is expected to arrive on Europa in 2030. Instead of landing directly in the ocean or taking samples there, it will scan it through 50 flyby flights to Europa's surface to gather information about its interior. Previously, the telescope had received clues that Europa was spewing plumes into space, and they hoped the probe would follow suit. However, a recent observation by the Webb Space Telescope found no evidence of this.
Nature said that NASA will launch its first manned mission to the moon this year since the 70s of the last century. Artemis 2 could be launched as early as November this year, and four astronauts, three men and one woman, will fly around the moon for 10 days aboard the Orion spacecraft. It will lay the groundwork for the subsequent Artemis III mission. China is also preparing to launch Chang'e-6 in 2024 to carry out a lunar sample return mission. If successful, the mission would be the first time humans have taken samples from the far side of the moon.
In addition, there are a number of planetary exploration missions this year. For example, Japan plans to launch the Mars Satellite Exploration (MMX) mission, which will go to two Martian moons, Phobos and Deimos. It will land on Phobos and take surface samples, returning to Earth in 2029.
Neutrino research
It is expected that the quality will be determined, and the sorting problem will be solved
The journal Science predicts that two joint experiments may reveal how the masses of neutrinos, a tiny and elusive particle, are ordered. There are three types of neutrinos: electric neutrinos, μ neutrinos, and τ neutrinos. They transform into each other, a phenomenon that may help explain why the universe produces more positive matter than antimatter.
First, physicists must refine theoretical models. They know that the mass of the two neutrinos is almost the same, but they don't know whether it is two light and one heavy, or two heavy and one light. This problem is known as the neutrino mass order problem.
At the moment, there are two explanations for the problem. The first is the "normal order", i.e., the two lighter eigenstates have a slight mass difference of about 10 millielectron volts, while the third eigenstate has a mass about 50 millielectron volts higher. The second interpretation is "reverse order", i.e., there is a lightest eigenstate and a pair of higher quality eigenstates, the mass difference between the light and heavy eigenstates is about 50 millielectron volts, and the mass difference between the heavier eigenstates is also about 10 millielectron volts. The current study data is slightly biased towards the normal order.
In the T2K experiment in Japan and the NOvA experiment in the United States, physicists studied the sequencing problem by emitting neutrinos hundreds of kilometers across the Earth to reach a huge detector. This year, they plan to publish a joint analysis that may indicate which of the two above sequences is correct.
Nature said that 2024 could also be the year when scientists determine the mass of neutrinos. Neutrinos are the most mysterious particles in the Standard Model of particle physics, and the results of the 2022 Karlsruhe tritium neutrino experiment showed that neutrinos have a maximum mass of 0.8 electron volts. The researchers will complete data collection this year and expect to make precise measurements of these tiny particles.
climatic change
Temperatures may hit record highs, and negotiations on a plastics treaty are slow
Science predicts that El Niño in the eastern Pacific could become more severe in the coming months, raising the global average surface temperature by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
In fact, this change in temperature has been going on since last year. 2023 could be the hottest year in modern history, as the average temperature in the previous 11 months was 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, which is beyond what greenhouse gas emissions can explain.
El Niño is a pattern of climate oscillations that occurs on a regular basis. Scientists expect it to exacerbate drought in the Amazon and Australia. Science predicts that El Niño's ability to absorb heat in the ocean, combined with less air pollution that blocks out the sun, will continue to work this year.
Both Science and Nature focus on climate-related environmental issues in their outlooks. According to Science, the EU's comprehensive environmental agenda may be hampered by political factors.
The European Green Deal, approved in 2020, aims to make the EU "the first climate-neutral continent", with zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and plans to introduce new climate-friendly measures in various policy areas, including energy, nature conservation and transport. To achieve these goals, about one-third of the funding from the massive Horizon Europe programme will be spent on climate change-related research. At present, these regulations have withstood some opposition, but their future implementation is uncertain.
Nature predicts that negotiations on a United Nations plastics treaty will conclude this year. The negotiations aim to reach a binding international agreement to eliminate plastic pollution. Since the 50s, 10 billion tonnes of plastic have been produced globally, of which more than 7 billion tonnes are now waste. Much of that 7 billion tonnes of plastic waste is polluting the oceans and harming wildlife. Negotiations on a plastics treaty began last year, but progress has been slow, and researchers worry they may not meet their goals.
Thermonuclear fusion
ITER problems were frequent, and the construction period was postponed again
The International Experimental Thermonuclear Fusion Reactor (ITER) is a huge experimental fusion reactor that has been under construction for decades. Science predicts that project managers expect to announce a new completion date this year, pushing back far from the long-term goal of completing "first plasma" by 2025.
Stars shine and heat up by the energy produced by nuclear fusion. Scientists believe that ITER could help humanity realize its dream of evolving from fossil fuels to fusion energy. In the mid-80s, the scientific community began to conceive of the project – when completed, the machine would essentially be an oversized doughnut-shaped container, known as a "tokamak".
Inside the fusion vessel, hydrogen gas is contained in a plasma state at an extremely high temperature. The powerful magnetic and electric fields that flow out of and through the tokamak will surround and heat the plasma, causing the atoms inside to collide and fuse, releasing a huge amount of energy.
Achieving magnetic confinement fusion is easier said than done. Since the '50s, fusion equipment has grown larger and stronger, but none of them have yet achieved controlled fusion and fed the energy produced into the grid. ITER is the most powerful fusion device ever designed, and the designers intended it to prove that fusion power plants can be built.
Construction of the facility is currently underway in France, with tens of billions of dollars to be built by international partners. However, it is currently experiencing a series of problems: the coronavirus pandemic has slowed down the manufacturing of parts, some parts of the reactor vessel do not fit together, the cooling pipes are rusty, and the French nuclear regulator has doubts about its safety.
Following the death of ITER's former Director General, Bernard Vigo, Pietro Barabasti took the helm of the project last year. He is working hard to get construction back on track, with plans to unveil a revised timetable this year.
Ultrafast supercomputer
According to the journal Nature, researchers will launch Jupiter, Europe's first exascale supercomputer, early this year. It can be used to medically create "digital twins" of the human heart and brain, and can also be used to make high-resolution simulations of the Earth's climate.
In addition, U.S. researchers will install two exascale computers this year: Aurora at Lemont Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois and Chieftain Rock at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. Scientists will use "Aurora" to map the brain's neural circuits and "Chief Rock" to simulate the effects of a nuclear weapon explosion.
A new understanding of consciousness
For the past 25 years, academia has been betting on philosophy rather than neuroscience on consciousness. The journal Nature predicts that there may be new insights into the neuroscientific basis of consciousness this year. A large project is testing two theories about consciousness through a series of adversarial trials, and the project is expected to release the results of a second round of trials before the end of the year. In the first round of experiments, neither theory fully matched the observed brain imaging data, and the results of the second round may bring neuroscience closer to the riddle of this subjective experience.
A new generation of astronomical observations
According to Nature, Chile's Vera Rubin Observatory plans to start a 10-year survey of the entire southern hemisphere by the end of 2024. Through the observatory's 8.4-meter telescope and massive 3,200-megapixel camera, scientists hope to discover many new transient phenomena and near-Earth asteroids.
Also in Chile, the Simons Observatory in the Atacama Desert will be completed by the middle of this year. As a next-generation interstellar testing site, the observatory will look for signs of primordial gravitational waves, the afterglow of the Big Bang, in the cosmic microwave background. Its telescope will be equipped with up to 50,000 daylight detectors, ten times more than similar projects currently underway.
Astronomers, however, are concerned that light pollution from the night sky from a growing constellation of brighter satellites could render new ground-based astronomical telescope data unusable.
Look for dark matter
Nature predicts that the results of an experiment to detect dark matter particles, known as axons, will be released for the first time this year. It is thought that axions emitted by the sun are converted into photons, but these tiny particles have not yet been observed in the laboratory due to the need for highly sensitive detection tools and extremely strong magnetic fields. The Baby IAXO experiment at the German Electron Synchrotron in Hamburg uses a solar telescope consisting of a 10-meter-long magnet and an ultra-sensitive, noiseless X-ray detector to track the center of the sun 12 hours a day to capture the conversion of axons to photons.
Text: Sun Xinqi/Compiler
Photo: Unless otherwise noted, they are from Visual China
Editor: Xu Qimin