Drones disrupted air defense networks, missile swarms hit infrastructure hard, and Russian and Ukrainian missile attacks entered a new tactical stage

On the morning of January 8, the Russian army once again carried out large-scale air strikes on Ukraine. The Russian army launched the "Dagger" hypersonic missile and cruise missile into the territory of Ukraine. Since the end of 2023, Russia and Ukraine have used missiles and rockets to launch large-scale firepower strikes on each other's deep areas and cities. Western media also admit that the Russian "barrage" has dodged Western air defenses in Ukraine, causing deadly chaos. And some Russian social media accounts revealed that Ukraine had struck important Russian military targets on the Crimean peninsula. Zhang Xuefeng, a Chinese military expert, believes that the strike methods and tactics of the two sides have been upgraded to a certain extent, and the mutual missile strikes between Russia and Ukraine have entered a new stage.

Western air defense shield "partially ruptured"

The Ukrainian Independent News Agency reported on the 8th that on the morning of the same day, 9 Tu-95MS and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers of the Russian army took off from the Olenya Airport in the Murmansk region and launched the "Dagger" hypersonic missile and cruise missile into Ukraine. According to a report by Russia's "free media" on the 6th, from December 30, 2023 to January 5 this year, the Russian army carried out 41 cluster strikes and 1 large-scale strike with high-precision weapons and drones on Ukraine. The Ukrainian military-industrial complex, infrastructure such as military airfields, weapons depots and fuel bases, among others, have been hit hard.

The current round of air strikes between the two sides began on December 29, 2023, with the Russian army carrying out large-scale air strikes on targets in depth in Ukraine. Russian missiles broke through Western air defense systems and caused some casualties to Ukraine. For months, Ukraine has used powerful Western-supplied air defenses to repel Russian missile attacks, effectively setting up "protective shields" over major cities such as Kyiv, according to a report on the New York Times website titled "How Russian barrage evades Ukrainian defenses to cause deadly chaos." But in the face of this attack, this shield was "partially broken". Russia appears to have begun experimenting with different combinations of air weapons and attack routes to figure out how to better penetrate these defenses.

This is confirmed by the Ukrainian army. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Zaluzhny, said on social media that the attack on December 29 last year began with more than 30 "Shahed" drones launched from the north and southeast in the early morning. Then, at around 5 a.m., Russian bombers began firing cruise missiles, followed by ballistic missiles an hour later. Finally, at 6:30 a.m., Russian fighters launched five "Dagger" hypersonic missiles. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Ignat said that the targets of the incoming missiles and drones were scattered throughout Ukraine and did not follow a straight line, and "some missiles flew in circles before hitting the target".

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment that the attack suggests that the Shahed drones that preceded the missile attack may have distracted Ukrainian air defenses or otherwise contributed to the attack, and that another possible reason why some missiles evaded Ukrainian air defenses was the use of ammunition decoys. Videos show a Russian cruise missile firing flares when it strikes.

Zhang Xuefeng, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times that Russia has improved its missile strike tactics against Ukraine. Through the information of the Ukrainian side, the outside world can also see some of the tactics adopted by Russia. For example, drones often fly along a major highway in southern Ukraine, because even airborne AWACS aircraft may treat these low-speed drones as high-speed cars, and some early warning opportunities even ignore the highway choice. This greatly increases the probability of penetration of the drone. According to a report by RIA Novosti on the 7th, British analysts said that the West was shocked by Russia's missile attacks on strategic facilities in Ukraine, and two "Patriot" air defense missile systems were damaged.

The Ukrainian army focused on striking Crimea

The Ukrainian side also retaliated on a large scale against Russia. In an apparent response to Russia's attack, Ukraine struck the city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border with missiles and rockets last Saturday. At the same time, Ukraine has also intensified its strikes on the Crimean peninsula.

Reuters reported on the 5th that the Ukrainian Air Force carried out a strike on a Russian command post near Sevastopol on the 4th, targeting a target more than 200 kilometers from the territory controlled by Kyiv, and hit a military unit in another strike on the Crimean peninsula. The Russian Defense Ministry said its air defense forces shot down a total of 36 Ukrainian drones and 10 missiles over Crimea. The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Oleshchuk, posted a video on Telegram showing smoke rising from explosions near Sevastopol.

Ukraine has also adopted new tactics when striking targets of the Russian army. According to a report by Russian News Network on the 6th, the Ukrainian army also used drones, decoys and cruise missiles to continuously hit Russian military targets in Crimea, especially the command structure.

Zhang Xuefeng said that the news on social media cannot be confirmed at present, but the Ukrainian army has frequently and successfully attacked important targets on the Crimean Peninsula before, which has been confirmed by video. Among the relatively large results of the battle were the destruction and damage of one frigate, one conventionally powered submarine, one large landing ship, the destruction of the S-400 air defense system on the Crimean peninsula, and the attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, as well as several airfields. This also shows that the Russian army's air defense system still has relatively large loopholes.

The intention is to force back the Ukrainian air defense group

As for the reasons for the missile attack launched by the Russian army, the report of the Institute for the Study of War believes that the Russian army may try to force Ukraine's limited air defense system to withdraw away from the front line. The report believes that the Russian attack on December 29 last year was carried out after there were signs that Ukrainian air defense systems could pose a significant challenge to Russian aviation operations on the front line. Ukraine lacks the air defense systems needed to provide even coverage for the entire country, and the series of sustained strikes by the Russian army, even of low intensity, is partly due to forcing the Ukrainian army to use these air defenses to protect larger population centers far from the front line, rather than providing cover for military operations on the front line.

However, Zhang Xuefeng told the "Global Times" reporter that at the moment when the ground operations between the two sides are deadlocked, this may mean the beginning of a new phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At the moment, the ground offensive of both sides is struggling. The Western media even lamented that this may be the bleakest moment for the Ukrainian army. Russia's offensive in the east has made progress, but it has also come at a cost.

Zhang Xuefeng believes that under the condition that neither side is capable of making a major breakthrough on the ground, the two sides have started a new missile war. As far as the Russian side is concerned, it also has the intention of promoting talks by fighting. After all, the current results are acceptable to the Russian side. However, the Ukrainian side has a relatively tough attitude and it is difficult to accept the current reality on the battlefield. The Russian army hopes to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure through missile attacks, hit the potential of the Ukrainian war, and demoralize the Ukrainian military and civilians, forcing it to come to the negotiating table.

Source: Global Times