Summary of overseas dynamics (summary version):
1. Global Economic and Market Trends:
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to maintain peace and economic growth, with a growth rate of 4.2% in 2024. U.S. economic growth is expected to slow and the Ukraine crisis continues to be in international focus. The Chinese market continues to attract multinational companies, and Tesla's Shanghai factory has become a global export center. The global economy is expected to grow at a moderate to low rate in 2024, with global inflation expected to fall from 5.7% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024.
2. International Trade and Investment Policy:
China and Arab countries have strengthened financial cooperation and jointly built the Belt and Road Initiative. The EU imposes a minimum effective tax rate of 15% on multinational corporations, which is expected to generate an additional $220 billion in revenue per year. The UK will implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism from 2027 to affect China's exports. The U.S. has extended the exemption period for Chinese goods until May 31, 2024. Malaysia imposes a 10% sales tax on imported low-priced goods.
3. Regional economic development and cooperation:
The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) holds trade fairs in El Salvador to promote bilateral economic and trade cooperation. With the development of the China-Kazakhstan Permanent Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, China has become Kazakhstan's largest trading partner, with a trade volume of US$36.87 billion. Yiwu City issued the international catering management service specification to improve the standardized management level of international catering. The first bonded warehouse for high-end consumer goods in Wenzhou was opened to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce. Xiamen international express delivery company opened the "Xiamen-Miami" international freight route.
4. Enterprise development and market strategy:
47 AEO-certified enterprises in Shaanxi Province enjoy customs facilitation measures, and the total foreign trade value accounts for nearly 60% of the province. The new momentum of China's foreign trade continued to strengthen, and exports of new products increased by 41.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023. Changes in Italy's tax policy, with tax refunds amounting to 22.4 billion euros, show the impact on business operations. The Fed has preliminary discussions on rate cuts, but remains cautious on its policy path.
5. Economic Challenges and Risk Management:
The port crisis in South Africa has affected the economy, and demand for credit from the private sector has slowed. The Romanian government is facing fiscal challenges with a higher-than-target fiscal deficit. Cyprus' economic growth is slowing and inflation is expected to fall to 4% in 2023. The Danish economy is facing a recession, especially in the manufacturing and pharmaceutical sectors. The Sudanese pound fell to £1,100 against the US dollar, affecting business decisions.
The details are shown in the figure
