A recent commentary published by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) has attracted widespread attention from the international community, warning that 2024 could be a year of conflict on the Korean Peninsula due to the continuous military exercises and Xi between the United States and South Korea near the North Korean border. This assertion is based on the sensitive geographical location and historical background of the Korean Peninsula, as well as the relationship between China and the DPRK under the Sino-DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance.
Peace on the Korean Peninsula is mainly affected by the great power game, especially the interaction between China, the United States, and Russia. At the moment, none of the three countries wants a war on the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. is powerless to open up new battlefields while dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and with 2024 being the year of the U.S. election, the government is inclined to end the conflict to win votes.
The recent mutual choking between the DPRK and the ROK in public opinion may be a strategy of mutual deterrence and seeking détente, that is, "promoting peace through war." South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's government's hardline policy toward North Korea may also be motivated by domestic political considerations, especially in the upcoming parliamentary elections, and his government may take a tougher stance in order to win voter support.
In terms of future trends, while there may not be a large-scale conflict between the two Koreas, continued tensions may be the key to accumulating conflicts. North Korea's propaganda about the possibility of a conflict in 2024 may be part of preparing for war in response to perceived danger. If inter-Korean tensions are not fundamentally changed, the situation could become even more volatile in the coming years.
A large-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula in 2024 is unlikely, but ongoing tensions suggest that contradictions between the two Koreas are accumulating. The diplomatic war of public opinion between the two Koreas reflects an attempt by both sides to promote dialogue and détente through a tough posture, but the effectiveness of this approach is not yet known. If inter-Korean tensions are not fundamentally changed, the situation in the coming years could become more complex and unstable, posing a challenge to regional and international peace.