Source: Photo.com
On January 8, 2024, the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University released a macro report on the theme of "Establishing First, Breaking Down, Promoting Stability: China's Economic Outlook 2024" at the 46th Tsinghua University China and the World Economic Forum.
Proceeding from the current basic situation of China's economy, the report believes that the potential of China's economic development is still huge and cannot be misjudged. The report then pointed out that China's current prices are sluggish, the prosperity index is hovering at a low level, the economy's ability to absorb employment is showing weakness, and the economy is operating below the potential growth rate. Excluding the impact of the low base caused by the epidemic in 2022, the compound annual growth rate of real GDP in 2023 is expected to be about 4.5%, which is lower than the average annual growth rate of 4.59% required to achieve per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries in 2035.
According to the current situation proposed in the report, Gomexin, a researcher at the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, said, "What are the ways to boost consumer confidence? The consumption subsidy is more direct than the income subsidy because it makes you spend directly. In addition, the cost is relatively low, once there is consumption, it will drive taxes, and the burden on the government is not so high. Specifically, a subsidy of one trillion consumption vouchers can be considered, and there is a relatively low threshold for a certain amount of subsidy. ”
Transformation of population consumption structure
At the macro level, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP exceeded that of investment since 2014, and has remained at a high level since then, reaching 38.6% in 2020. The mainland's per capita GDP increased from $223.84 in 1978 to $11,000 in 2020, a 44-fold increase.
The income of urban and rural residents and consumer prices rose steadily
In the 2021 government work report, the national consumer price increase target is 3%, and from the data disclosed in the government work reports of many provinces, except for Shanghai, where the consumer price increase target is 2.5%, which is lower than the national level, and Chongqing's consumer price increase target is 3.2%, which is higher than the national level, and the consumer price increase in many other provinces and cities is basically consistent with the national 3%.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Guangdong Kai Securities, once said that consumption can be stimulated, and the issuance of cash subsidies or consumption vouchers can boost consumption to a certain extent. Luo Zhiheng believes that stimulating consumption can improve residents' welfare, promote production and employment, and promote the economic cycle back on track; consumer groups and employment groups are not exactly the same group, which is conducive to improving the income of low- and middle-income people.
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