The top ten predictions of 2024 CICC are released, they were all wrong last year, how many can be right this time?
CICC is undoubtedly a magical company, and every year CICC will give forecasts based on its own judgment, including the mainland and US markets, covering currencies, stock markets, macroeconomics and real estate markets.
Judging from CICC's past performance, the company's predictions are either outrageously wrong or correct, and whether it is right or wrong depends entirely on how we look at it.
Taking 2022 as an example, the top 10 predictions given by CICC for that year are:
A-shares are not in danger
Hong Kong stocks revert to the mean
Growth outstrips value
The boom in electric vehicles and new energy has spread to related fields
The pan-consumer sector is the bright spot
Commodity markets weakened
The new share of public funds exceeded 3 trillion
The net inflow of northbound funds under Stock Connect exceeded RMB300 billion
The debt problem deserves attention
The gains of U.S. stocks in 2022 will be significantly narrower
This is the top ten predictions given by CICC in 2022, due to the long time that has passed, for many people, there may be no impression and concept, and there is no way to judge right or wrong, but in fact?
Among the above 10 predictions, CICC only got three correct, that is, the fourth, sixth and ninth predictions were correct, and all the other predictions were wrong.
In 2023, CICC once again gave the top ten predictions, but this time it was outrageous and almost all wrong.
CICC's top 10 predictions for 2023 are:
The pressure of recession in the United States is increasing, and China is expected to achieve the world's first recovery
A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to achieve positive returns
Consumption has recovered after the epidemic, and domestic inflation is facing periodic pressure
Monetary easing is declining and interest rates are rising
The rebound in real estate sales turned positive, and house prices faced upward pressure locally
Exports continued to grow and the employment situation improved
The pan-consumer sector is the most important area of alpha in 2023
The internet and pharmaceutical industries are expected to usher in a reversal in 2023
A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to improve, and overseas funds will gradually return to the market
The trend inflection point of the US dollar is waiting for the second half of the year, and the RMB is volatile and strong
This is CICC's ten predictions last year, which can be said to be all wrong or all right, but considering a Chinese institution in the financial industry, CICC's approach can almost be said to be a wave of reverse predictions, because it is more difficult to be completely wrong than to be completely right.
For example, there is no recession in the United States, but the economy is too hot, and it can only be cooled down by raising interest rates, and the funds in the market are withdrawn to stay in the bank, because the economy is overheated, and it is easy to have a bubble.
As for the stock market, consumption, currency, real estate, exports, the Internet and the US dollar, all of them are wrong, and none of them are correct, which is why many netizens call CICC's reverse prediction.
Of course, as an institution, the prediction of a research report should of course be based on integrity, and doing business is about integrity, and the same is true for being a person, and CICC, as an institution, naturally believes that it is not intentional, it may be a wrong prediction, after all, the macroeconomic situation is unpredictable.
If an institutional research report has to be falsified, then how can our market be done?
This year, CICC's top ten predictions for 2024 are here again, and we can wait and see how correct they will be this time.
China's economy will stabilize and rebound
Long A shares
The U.S. economy is facing a recession
Bearish on U.S. stocks
Long Hong Kong stocks
The renminbi appreciated
Bearish on the US dollar
U.S. inflation has eased
China's real estate picks up
Bullish on China's leading brokers
First of all, the mainland's economy has stabilized and rebounded, needless to say, stabilization is certain, unless there is a particularly big black swan or gray rhinoceros event, otherwise stabilization is certain, but the question is, what is the basis for the rebound?
If it is based on the starting point of 2023, the economic growth rate in 2024 may not be as good as in 2023, which is based on the forecast of some international institutions, the growth rate in 2023 is more than 5 points, and in 2024 it may be around 5%.
As for A-shares, there is no need to say much, whether you are bullish or short, the A-share market can no longer be called a market, and it is more susceptible to the impact of the macroeconomic cycle, considering that foreign capital will withdraw from the stock market in the last month of 2023, A-shares in 2024 will still be vulnerable.
The U.S. economic recession has almost become a mandatory question for CICC's annual forecast, which has become a routine operation, similar to domestic real estate, RMB, etc., and in general, the macroeconomic situation in 2024 is not particularly optimistic, especially based on a series of problems and trends in 2023.
In 2024, these problems and trends will continue to occur, and CICC's reverse prediction will most likely become a legend, but this time CICC's prediction, I don't think it will be completely wrong, for example, I think the most promising is the appreciation of the RMB.
There is a high probability that the US dollar will cut interest rates this year, and the appreciation of the RMB should be a matter of course, but the forecast is only a prediction, which cannot be used as a reference.
Every new year, we subconsciously think that since this is the new year, then it should also be a new self, a new economy, a new trend, but in fact, the macro economy has come to this day, the new year is new, the problems faced by the economy are still old problems, and will not change much with the new year.
Of course, stimulus economic policies are an exception.
In general, the problems and challenges faced by the economy in the past will still be faced in 2024, employment, consumption, real estate and the stock market, the problems that plagued us last year, will continue to plague this year, and the involution of professionals will most likely continue in 2024, rather than end.
This year is still more difficult, ten years ago such a vigorous upward momentum, I am afraid it is time to take a break, under the slowdown of the dividends of the times, if individuals want to go further, the only thing we can do is to make more efforts than in the past.
Of course, luck is necessary for everyone.
end.
Author: Luo sir, the workplace reference of the new youth. Concerned about the logic behind the development of things, optimistic pessimists. Follow me and grind the knowledge to you.