As the new year has begun, the civil unrest in Myanmar has also escalated, the third force, the Wa State Army, has also come to an end, China's peacekeeping efforts in Burma have finally been undermined, and a war between the 60,000 opposition coalition troops and the 300,000 government troops is about to break out.
The turmoil in Myanmar has been going on for more than two months, and through the efforts of the Chinese side, representatives of the military junta and the allied forces have held peace talks in China, but this effort has ultimately failed due to the intervention of certain forces. A few days ago, the largest rebel group in northern Shan State, the Wa State Army, took over the Hupan area, and the Allied Forces quickly issued a takeover notice, and the Wa State Army entered the area to continue to control. This means that local armed forces in Myanmar have joined hands to cooperate, while China's years of peacekeeping efforts in Myanmar have been unsuccessful.
Wa State is a nominally "autonomous region" within Shan State, which is in fact independent of the control of the Burmese military junta and is equivalent to a "vassal king" in northern Myanmar. Later, the joint strike gradually came to an end, but the operation gradually turned into an infighting between the junta and the coalition forces, and the Wa State Army, as the largest rebel force in northern Shan State, declared its neutrality in the conflict for the first time, so the conflict has been under control.
The choice of the Wa State Army is actually the result of China's perennial peacekeeping operations in Myanmar. U.S. intelligence agencies have long been operating in northern Myanmar and the Golden Triangle, monitoring the situation and looking for opportunities to create new problems for China. For years, the United States has tried to bribe and incite these armed groups to oppose the junta or attack the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor through money and arms aid, but China and ASEAN have been coordinating with all parties to try to resolve the crisis in Myanmar, so these US spies have been unsuccessful.
However, no one expected that the Burmese military junta, with 380,000 troops, would be defeated so quickly and completely in the face of the Kokang Alliance, which had only more than 10,000 troops. Suddenly, a huge cake fell from the sky, and all armed groups inevitably wanted a piece of the pie, not to mention the Wa State Army, which had 50,000 troops, so there was a scene in northern Myanmar that China did not want to see, and the Wa State Army and the allied forces joined forces.
This not only means that China's efforts to coordinate the situation in Myanmar have failed, but also that the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor is facing an unprecedented threat. According to the analysis of Myanmar analysts, the armed conflict in Myanmar has caused the loss of about 10 million US dollars per day in bilateral trade between China and Myanmar, and a few days ago, artillery shells fell into Yunnan, causing five Chinese people to be injured.
On January 5, China's Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong held a video call with Myanmar's Minister of Home Affairs Yab, emphasizing his willingness to work with Myanmar to maintain security and stability in the China-Myanmar border areas. Subsequently, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong visited Myanmar in the same week, reiterating that China will continue to play a constructive role in supporting the peace process in northern Myanmar. The answer to which side China is on is already obvious.
Having said that, is the reason for the military junta's successive defeats and retreats due to its own lack of strength, or is the support of overseas forces for local armed forces too high? Only Myanmar knows the answer, but in any case, China's interests and the safety of the lives and property of the people on the border are at stake, and China must not sit idly by.