1. A-shares are really difficult, counting this month, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices have been falling for 6 consecutive months, setting a record for the longest decline in the past decade.
Second, A-shares were 3,000 points of defense before, and now they have retreated to the next best and become a 2,900-point defense war, and they have been wandering below 3,000 points for 17 days, which really makes everyone feel sad, which means that the confidence of the market bulls has not been condensed, otherwise it would not have been so long to regain 3,000 points.
Third, the volume of A-shares is another aspect that disappointed me, the average volume of energy last Sunday was only 753 billion, lower than the level of 783 billion energy in December last year, the amount of energy is low and decreasing, even if it continues to fall, it is difficult to complete a round of washing, the sentiment of looking at the market to avoid the market has risen, the lack of volume and energy support, how can the market continue to rise.
Fourth, last Friday's net inflow of northbound funds was 1.992 billion, which is in stark contrast to the sharp fall of the A-share Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes, from January 9, 2023 to January 5 this year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds was 18.16 billion, and the cumulative decline of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices during the period was 7.22% and 19.80% respectively, so we usually don't have to care about the northbound capital flow. Generally speaking, the A-share market is lower, and all kinds of funds are basically net outflows, and the flow of funds and the trend of the market are intertwined, not the relationship between cause and effect.
5. To sum up, A-shares are facing the pressure of insufficient volume and short technical form, and the trend of falling and falling has not been alleviated for the time being, and the risk factors I understand are also relatively large, so my views on the trend of A-shares on Monday are expressed as follows, and everyone is welcome to comment.
1. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indices will open with a decline, I estimate that this possibility is relatively large, and we will wait for the opening to compare it to see if this is the case.
2. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indices will still fluctuate downward, and will eventually close with a decline, I believe that this is the result, and everyone will see how it is when they close.
3. With the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices lowering, I believe that individual stocks will also be the result of rising less and falling more.
4. Of course, it has been hovering below 3000 points for a long time, and it is still a date to regain 3000 points, but I believe that it will eventually regain 3000 points in the future, so let's wait slowly.