Chen Shuying|It is necessary for the United States to carry out crisis management of the election chaos in Taiwan|

34 Scholars' Commentary: [Taiwan Question Choices and Solutions] Part 32

As an outstanding economy, Taiwan's Chinese films and songs have also had a profound impact on Asia, behind which there is the struggle of the older generation who have migrated from the mainland and the support of the United States. However, since Taiwan lifted the ban on newspapers and party parties in 1988 and implemented democratic elections in 1990, Taiwan's economy has been declining: in 1995, Taiwan's GDP accounted for 37% of Chinese mainland, and by the first quarter of 2023, its GDP fell to 4% of the mainland. A few days ago, there were frequent chaos in the 2024 election campaign in Taiwan, first there was the farce of blue and white, and then there was the "United States and Lai Match" launched by the Democratic Progressive Party, which was set by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council as "independence on top of independence".

In fact, all sides know that this is the last election before the reunification of the Taiwan region, so this election is in essence a test of whether the United States can continue to maintain its hegemony in the Pacific Ocean. If the United States does not manage the chaos in a crisis, the crisis in the Taiwan Strait will develop in an uncontrollable direction, which will inevitably trigger a conflict between China and the United States and make the East-West showdown happen in advance. And the end result must be that the United States will be "undignified" to squeeze out of the first island chain, and then the United States will not only lose face in Asia, but also in front of the whole world.

Taiwan's election chaos is getting worse and worse

The United States and the West have hailed Taiwan as "the beacon of democracy in Asia" with the intention of turning Taiwan into a model of democracy in which one person, one vote and equal votes are awarded. From Chiang Ching-kuo's death to Ma Ying-jeou's administration, the United States has in fact effectively intervened in and controlled the affairs of the Taiwan region, from Lee Teng-hui's "two-state theory" to Chen Shui-bian's "one country on one side" and then to Tsai Ing-wen's "two sides of the strait are not subordinate to each other." The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has used Taiwan independence as a pretext to gain votes, and since taking office, it has constantly hollowed out Taiwan, causing Taiwan's development to stagnate. The United States is not without misgivings about "the United States and the United States," so the blue and white on the island will talk about cooperation for a while, but they will not be able to cooperate for a while. It can be said that the indecisive and ambiguous attitude of the United States is the driving force behind the intensification of the election chaos in the Taiwan region.

Since Chiang Ching-kuo's death, the United States has not only wanted to use Chiang Kai-shek's and Kuomintang's hatred of the Communist Party in history to contain the mainland, but it has also harbored resentment about several Kuomintang-Communist cooperation in history, and has not dared to completely entrust the governance of Taiwan to the Kuomintang. This is the reason why, after the establishment of Taiwan's democratic elections, the Kuomintang (KMT) has been in power for less time than the DPP (Lee Teng-hui is nominally a member of the KMT, but in fact he implemented the Taiwan independence line in the later period of his administration).

Judging from the performance of the DPP in previous elections and the way the US side handled it, the US is more inclined to support the DPP to stay in power for a long time. During the Chen Shui-bian period, there were 319 shootings, and it was the DPP that interfered in the election process and then influenced the election results; during the Tsai Ing-wen period, it simply used 8.17 million votes as the election results, and even omitted the process; based on the experience of the previous two times, when Lai Qingde ran for the election, he recommended Xiao Meiqin, a naturalized American, as his election deputy.

The United States should exercise reason and restraint in the Taiwan regional election

On 30 November, the US journal Foreign Affairs published an article co-signed by three well-known heavyweights "China Expert," calling on Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te to consider "freezing the Taiwan independence party platform" if elected, in the hope that the promise of maintaining the status quo between the two sides of the strait will be more weighty and credible. The three co-authors are Ge Laiyi, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank, Jiexi Bai, a professor of political science at Cornell University, and Ke Qingsheng, a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. Grace and Bai served at the U.S. State Department, and Ke Qingsheng is currently an adviser to the U.S. State Department's China Coordination Office, a subordinate of Deputy Secretary of State Cambuur. These three people are very familiar with the DPP, and this is the first time they have cooperated to publish an article, and anyone with a discerning eye knows that this is a remote chess game for Taiwan. However, it is not enough for the United States to publish only one article, and the United States needs to have a clearer understanding of the impact of Taiwan's election on itself, which may bring serious consequences to the three major post-war geopolitical hegemony systems of the United States.

After the end of World War II, the United States took advantage of its status as a victorious country to quickly establish three major geopolitical hegemony through political, economic, and military means: in Europe, it achieved European hegemony by containing the former Soviet Union, which is now Russia, through its allies and NATO; it established hegemony in the Middle East by helping Israel establish a state to contain Arab countries; and in Northeast Asia, it established hegemony in the Pacific through a series of operations such as stationing troops in Japan and South Korea, substantially intervening in the affairs of the Taiwan region, and leasing Philippine bases.

However, the long-term unresolved conflict between Russia and Ukraine has already dealt a great blow to its European hegemony, and if Ukraine does not agree to the conditions for peace talks proposed by Russia, the fighting will not end, and Putin will not agree to the United States' intention to draw a European "38th parallel" in Ukraine. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict will definitely end with Israel's defeat, but it is still in a state of tug-of-war, although the US military has allocated aircraft carriers in the Middle East, but it has not played any role, which makes everyone have great doubts about the strength and reputation of the US military, and the US military is the guarantee of US dollar hegemony, which is not only a fatal blow to US hegemony in the Middle East, but even a bad sign for US dollar hegemony. If there is another turmoil in Northeast Asia over the Taiwan election issue, this will not be a question of whether the United States, which is already embattled, will not be able to control it, but whether it can continue to maintain its problems in Asia.

: Whoever is elected by the blue-green will have a much greater impact on the United States than on China. As far as the mainland is concerned, whoever is elected will not shake the mainland's determination to reunify Taiwan, nor will it influence the mainland's steps to reunify Taiwan step by step. On the Taiwan issue, China has always held the leading power and control. In the future, no matter who is elected, we must discuss the issue of reunification with the mainland, and if we do not talk about reunification, we will be independent, and this is already the consensus of the mainland from top to bottom. As far as the mainland is concerned, as long as the elected ruling party can uphold the general interests of the nation and is willing to talk with the mainland about reunification and seek common development, it does not matter who will be in power for a long time or who will take turns with whose political party.

On the contrary, as far as the United States is concerned, it is more beneficial for the United States for the blue battalion to come to power, because the blue battalion is a good hand at seeing the wind and steering, and the channel of communication with the mainland has not been completely broken, but if the blue battalion still wants to continue to deceive the mainland and delay the time for reunification, it will not be so easy. In the past few decades, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has manipulated cross-strait confrontation, and its channels of communication with the mainland have stalled, making it even more difficult to restart negotiations. However, one thing is certain: Even if the United States does not explicitly instruct the DPP to freeze the Taiwan independence party platform, Lai Qingde and his party will do it, because they know that the end of Taiwan independence is military reunification, but with the express indication of the United States, Lai Qingde will have less resistance to freezing the Taiwan independence party platform. Lai Qingde will certainly adopt a line similar to Tsai Ing-wen, no longer insisting on Taiwan independence or the establishment of Taiwan, but will change his approach and use the title of Taiwan of the Republic of China to continue to deceive the people on the island and find a sense of existence in the international community.

Historically, when China's economy is not good, there are changes in important people, and when there is pressure from outside, it will not affect the central government's decision-making. At the time of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, China had just been liberated, and the poor and weak country was full of devastation, people wanted to eat, and money was needed everywhere for national construction, but in order for New China to survive, Chairman Mao and other national leaders finally made the decision to send troops to North Korea, and finally fought 70 years of peace for future generations. Once the leadership collective makes up its mind to do something that benefits the country and the people, it will be accomplished despite all difficulties, and this is the inheritance of Zhongnanhai, and no one can change it casually. If the United States only retreated to the south of the 38th parallel last time, and if the conflict resumes this time, it will be a question of withdrawing troops from Japan and South Korea and losing the ATM of Northeast Asia.

: The DPP continues to fool the people on the island by hyping up that the mainland has no plan to attack Taiwan in 2027-2035, but the KMT wants to explain that something will happen at any time before 2027. If the Kuomintang wants to continue to participate in the governance of the Taiwan region after future reunification, this election will be the last resort, and it must unite all forces that can be united. The Kuomintang put forward the campaign slogan of "war or peace" this time, and somewhat overestimated the people's perception of the world on the island; although Taiwan's scenery has long since ceased to be there, the majority of the people are still immersed in the beauty of the past and cannot extricate themselves; young people who have been educated by the falsified curriculum are also immersed in the self-anesthesia of "Xiao Zhenxing." As a matter of fact, Hsiao Mei-qin, who was nominated by the DPP at the age of 31 to become a naturalized member of the Republic of China, is not qualified to run for deputy; if cross-strait relations continue to deteriorate, the ECFA will be cut off at any time, more young people will not be able to find jobs, and more pineapples and groupers will not be sold.

The KMT candidate's recent statement of recognition of the '92 consensus is a positive expression, but it is not enough; if elected, he will be willing to sit down with the mainland to discuss reunification. In the past, the mainland was mainly anti-independence, so the "consensus of '92" became the guiding principle for resolving cross-strait affairs; now the mainland's focus is on promoting reunification, so there should be a new consensus between the two sides of the strait, and the Kuomintang should take the initiative to put forward a "2024 consensus" with the connotation of advocating the process of reunification, so that it is worthy of being a follower of Sun Yat-sen.

China and the United States must maintain a tacit understanding on the Taiwan Strait issue

: Both the DPP and the KMT have used ideology to govern Taiwan since they took power. The United States is well aware of how the Taiwanese have been brainwashed over the years, but it may not very well understand how Taiwan's blue-green media have used to distort or exaggerate the United States' support for Taiwan. Both the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will drag the United States into the water, turning China's internal affairs into international time and then into a showdown between China and the United States.

The military struggle between China and the United States has never stopped for a moment, the last time the balloon wandered over the United States was to test the interception capability of China's suborbital missiles, and the Chinese hypersonic missiles that are too advanced to display have already broken through the geographical restrictions, and China's submarines lying on the bottom of the sea cannot be tracked by the US military. But China will not challenge US hegemony and has no ambitions to replace it. However, if the United States pushes China into a corner, China will inevitably strike back.

After decades of competition, the United States is actually psychologically prepared for Taiwan's future return to China, but it is not willing to accept it immediately, but the reality is that the DPP has broken the status quo, and the mainland has made it impossible to return to the status quo. The mainland has two options in its hands: always be ready for military unification, or it can immediately launch peace unification. Since the United States does not want China to reunify Taiwan by force, the United States now has only one option, and that is peaceful reunification: Because once the button of military reunification is pressed, the United States will face a dilemma, and the result of being involved in this will be to withdraw from Asia and completely collapse its global hegemony; and if it does not get involved, it will not be able to raise its head in front of the world. Since this is the case, the United States must create conditions to reserve space for cross-strait peace and reunification.

: At the Xi meeting in San Francisco in November, Xi Jinping stressed on the Taiwan issue that the United States should reflect its statement of not supporting Taiwan independence in concrete actions and stop arming Taiwan, which is to once again clearly convey China's position to the world, "China will eventually be reunified and will be reunified." No matter who is elected leader of the Taiwan region, no one or thing can shake or change China's determination and will to reunify Taiwan, and the United States must take China's core interests and concerns seriously and maintain a tacit understanding with China on the Taiwan Strait issue. The world is big enough to accommodate China and the United States, and there are still many difficult problems in world governance that need to be solved, and both China and the United States need to take responsibility and give full play to their wisdom and talents.