Title: Lai Ching-te leads Taiwan's election: U.S. position, poll scuffle and cross-strait reunification
Introduction: With the 2024 Taiwan leadership election approaching, the lively scene on the island's political scene is intensifying. In this crucial political contest, the competition for approval ratings between Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Hou Youyi, a possible candidate from the KMT, is particularly eye-catching. While analyzing the current election, external influences, and unification issues, we also have to pay attention to the potential impact of the change in military power on this election. In this article, we will explain how these complex factors are intertwined in the context of the 2024 Taiwan leadership election.
Election Trends and Approval Rivalry: Lai's hard-line Taiwanese stance does not seem to have curtailed his popularity with the DPP, as the current favorite for the DPP's internal approval ratings. On the contrary, after the bankruptcy of Blue and White, the KMT seems to be going through a period of slump. Although Hou Youyi has performed well as the mayor of New Taipei, it is still unclear whether he will be able to translate his charisma into enough votes to support him.
Judging from various polls, Lai Qingde seems to have firmly occupied the leading position. If no major accidents occur, there is reason to believe that he will win in the end. However, in Taiwan's volatile political environment, "accidents" are always commonplace.
External Interference Factors: The United States has always maintained an ambiguous attitude towards the Taiwan issue. On the surface, it claims that it does not support "Taiwan independence," but in fact it has provided substantial assistance through arms sales and other means. This strategy has created uncertainty in the island's political situation. If Lai Ching-te is elected, it may put the United States in a dilemma in terms of cross-strait strategy – after all, he is widely regarded as a staunch supporter of "Taiwan independence."
Complex voter surveys: The number of polls conducted on the eve of Taiwan's 2024 leadership election is unprecedentedly large and the results are more chaotic. From approval ratings to satisfaction ratings, polling agencies release a wide variety of data with different criteria. And there is a certain camp position behind each institution, which makes it difficult for ordinary voters to discern which data is more objective and true.
Calls and Signals for Reunification: Recently, the mainland has sent a clear signal on cross-strait relations. Qi Jialin and other leaders of the reunification faction on the island and mainland officials such as Director Song Tao have stressed the importance of peaceful reunification between the two sides of the strait on different occasions and called on the Taiwan compatriots to consider the issue from the perspective of the overall situation.
Changes in military power and mainland confidence: The addition of China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, to the Navy has undoubtedly increased the pace of the PLA's modernization of the Navy and narrowed the gap with the U.S. Navy. The Fujian not only enhances the level of China's naval construction, but also symbolizes that the mainland has stronger confidence in handling the Taiwan Strait issue.
Conclusion: An analysis of the current election situation, external interference, complex polls, and cross-strait relations shows that in the next few months, we will witness a historical moment shaped by the intertwined influences of many aspects. No matter how the final outcome affects the blueprint for the future development of the two sides of the strait, every development in this process deserves our close attention and in-depth discussion.