In the past few years, the economic competition between China and the United States has been very fierce, and people often ask: What exactly are the two big countries competing for? Or what is the most fundamental decisive factor? What will the next 10 years look like?
It's complicated and complicated, it's simple, it's just that many people don't think about what the most important thing is.
What will the economic competition between China and the United States look like in the next 10 years? We think most people have to give up their illusions, that there will be no more days of mutual fulfillment like in the 1990s, and that there will be no more honeymoon periods.
The economic competition between major countries is often a natural result, everyone walks and walks to that road, the earth is so big, the resources are limited, the market is so much, everyone is cut and eaten on a big cake, and competition is an inevitable thing.
Resources, talents, technology, industry, etc., when two countries develop to the same level, it is inevitable that they will collide together.
Therefore, some people fantasize that if we obey the United States or avoid them, the Americans will let us go, which is simply impossible.
At the same time, history has proven that great power competition is a very long process, often more than 50 years. In 1894, the United States surpassed Britain in terms of gross industrial output, and it was not until after World War II that it took over British hegemony, almost 60 years.
Therefore, there will be no results in the next 10 years, and they will only continue to be entangled, not to decide whether they are alive or dead, but only about victory or defeat. That is to say, China and the United States will divide the winners and losers at the GDP level, but it may be difficult to say that the United States will collapse, and the decline of the United States will also be a long-term process.
So, what is the most important deciding factor, and what is the core of what we need to focus on?
In the economic competition between China and the United States, we see some people discussing the rise of China's manufacturing industry and the return of American manufacturing, some people discussing the hegemony of the dollar and the internationalization of the yuan, some people discussing the trade war, some people discussing the financial war, and some people discussing the technology war.
This shows very clearly that the competition at the level of major powers is a complex and comprehensive competition, and if one side has obvious shortcomings or even shortcomings, the competition will not be equal, and it will be easy to distinguish the winner from the loser.
The former Soviet Union, for example, is a prime example of this, with a strong military but weak financial and economic foundations.
Since the economic competition between major powers is comprehensive and complex, what is the most important decisive factor?
In fact, as long as we understand that great power competition is a long-term historical process, we can understand that there is only one core thing, which is sustainability, because this is a long-distance race.
It's like running a marathon, it's 42 kilometers, the most important thing is that you can finish the whole marathon, and the winner is the winner.
If we look at it from this perspective, the problem is simple and clear.
In a large economy, there are three very important factors that are truly sustainable in the long term: model, technology, and talent.
Technology and talent are well understood, what is a model?
In May 2023, Sullivan, National Security Advisor to the President of the United States, reflected on the U.S. economic model in a speech in which he argued that a fully liberalized market economy had failed, or that the economic model driven entirely by profit had lost its magic.
Sullivan mainly expressed three meanings. First, he admitted that the United States has taken the wrong path and pursued a free market economy for many years, which has caused serious problems for the United States.
Second, the U.S. lacks norms for the market economy, lets the market go unchecked, and does not formulate industrial guidance policies, resulting in the hollowing out of the U.S. real economy.
Third, it is very likely that the economic policy of the United States will be transformed from a laissez-faire market economy to a track of state intervention in the economy, which is mainly affected by the competition between China and the United States, which has made the United States see its own shortcomings.
On the other hand, China has been very strong under the double impact of the epidemic and global instability in recent years, why?
You can name many reasons, but the most important thing is that the state-owned economy has played a mainstay role and strengthened its ability to resist risks, and the national system has given full play to the advantages of concentrating resources and concentrated its efforts on finding a breakthrough direction.
Many people are talking about how state-owned enterprises are, but what more people don't know is that many central enterprises have been working hard for a long time in Africa, South America and other places, losing money, and winning respect and friendship, so that many private enterprises like Transsion can quickly take root in Africa.
Needless to say, the importance of science and technology goes without saying, why has the United States been focusing on our science and technology in the past few years and desperately restricting us from making breakthroughs in cutting-edge science and technology? It is because they understand that science and technology are the decisive factor in the long run.
In terms of talent, the United States defeated Britain by snatching global talent, and long-term perseverance in competing for talent. A lot of people talk about how American universities are, but they don't know that that's where they compete for global talent.
On the one hand, American universities attract scientists from all over the world with their prestigious status and lucrative income, and on the other hand, they attract outstanding students from all over the world with high-quality educational standards.
In a sense, technology and talent are the real secrets of America's longevity.
So, the path of competition is already clear, what should China do?
There is no other way but to meet the brave and compete-for-tat, and at the same time, not to be fooled by the problems at hand, and to adhere to sustainability and long-termism.
In the past two years, we have clearly thought about the future path, and Chinese modernization is the model we adhere to, under which we continue to invest in science and technology and talents for a long time.
Therefore, in the next 10 years, the pressure will not be reduced, and the only way to move forward is to unite and work hard.