Recently, the listed interest rates of fixed deposits of large state-owned banks have generally been lowered, triggering lower interest rates and rising bond markets, and bond funds have also risen. In the past 2023, the bond market has come out of a "small bull market" due to the impact of credit easing brought about by active fiscal policies and prudent monetary and fiscal policies. In contrast, the domestic equity market has seen a relatively large pullback, with the three major A-share indices and Hong Kong stocks all falling sharply.
Looking ahead to 2024, although the equity market is expected to be no worse than this year in the eyes of most industry insiders, the weak recovery of macroeconomic fundamentals may still constrain the equity market. At this time, the secondary bond base with general bonds as the base and can moderately participate in equity assets such as stocks may be a good choice for investment in 2024.
From January 5 to 24 this year, UBS SDIC Hejing 180-day holding period bond securities investment fund (hereinafter referred to as "SDIC UBS Hejing", Class A 020307, Class C 020308) was issued and raised.
The bond market will be bullish in 2023, and 2024 will still be a priority for stable investment
Looking back on 2023, the domestic stock market and the bond market have come out of different markets. Affected by factors such as the weak domestic macroeconomic recovery and the interest rate differential between China and the United States, wind data shows that as of December 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 4.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 15%, the ChiNext Index fell by more than 20%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 15%, all falling below the key point.
Although the bond market in 2023 is full of twists and turns, the main line of the transaction is the policy game in the context of the divergence between economic fundamental expectations and reality, as well as the positive support brought by the implementation of multiple monetary easing measures, and the 10-year treasury bond yield has fallen by more than 20BP throughout the year, and the overall exit is a "bull market" conducive to bond funds. According to Wind statistics, the bond market as a whole has maintained a volatile rise since December, and as of December 25, the CSI Total Bond Index has risen 4.8% this year. Due to the strength of the bond market, about ninety percent of bond funds achieved positive returns during the year, and nearly 100 products increased their net value by more than 6% during the year.
Bond funds, as the name suggests, refer to funds that mainly invest in bonds, mainly relying on the interest income of bonds to obtain income, which is relatively stable. Historical data shows that bond markets are characterized by low volatility and good long-term returns. Taking the China Bond-New Composite Wealth (Gross Value) Index as an example, the volatility of the China Bond New Composite Wealth (Gross Value) Index has been lower than that of mainstream stock indices in the past decade, and from the perspective of trends, stocks may significantly outpace bonds in the short term, but bonds have performed well in the long run.
Index abbreviation: range change, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, annualized Sharpe ratio
China Bond-New Composite Wealth (Total) Index: 59.53%, 1.62%, -3.57%, 1.93
Shanghai Composite Index 35.93%, 19.72%, -52.30%, 0.19
沪深30044.27%20.80%-46.70%0.22
Source: Wind, statistical period from December 1, 2013 to November 30, 2023. The Sharpe ratio is an indicator that reflects the risk-adjusted return of a fund, and the measure is the return after adjusting for asset risk, which is the price display of unit risk.
In addition to investing in general bonds (interest rate bonds, credit bonds, etc.), the secondary bond base can also participate in a small amount of investment in equity assets such as stocks. Among them, no less than 80% is invested in bonds, striving to lay a good foundation for portfolio allocation, and the remaining no more than 20% of the investment can not only use the special attributes of convertible bonds to increase income, but also invest in stocks, with the goal of enhancing the aggressiveness and volatility of portfolio returns.
Looking forward to the bond market in 2024, the industry believes that the "bond bull" is expected to continue in the context of fiscal policy and monetary policy to help stabilize growth. CITIC fixed income team said that with the further weakening of overseas economic demand, the domestic economy may usher in a tortuous repair process again, and it is expected that the yield to maturity of 10-year treasury bonds in 2024 will fall to a low of about 2.5%; Guosheng fixed income said that stable economic fundamentals and loose monetary liquidity in 2024 will continue to drive yields downward, and the 10-year treasury bond interest rate is expected to fall to a low of 2.3%~2.4%.
SDIC UBS Fixed Income believes that overall, the economy is showing a weak recovery, and the follow-up may still need to be supported by stable growth policies. Short-term interest rates have room for repair, and the trend of medium- and long-term interest rates will still be volatile in the short term, and expectations for policies and fundamentals need to be further confirmed. In terms of credit bonds, the valuation of urban investment bonds has declined rapidly under the background of chemical bonds, the value depression has been gradually filled, the short-end sinking has lacked sufficient cost performance and coupon protection, real estate bonds have further fallen under the influence of weak fundamentals and sentiment, and the valuation is still at risk of expanding, the overall mining value of credit bonds has weakened, and a stable coupon strategy is still preferred in the short term.
Advance can be attacked, retreated and defended, SDIC UBS and Jing started on January 5
Since 2023, bond funds have become the main force of new fund issuance in the context of the overall cold of new fund issuance. According to Wind statistics, as of December 23, more than 1,200 funds had been established during the year (shares are calculated together, the same below), with a total initial offering size of 1.1 trillion yuan. Among them, the total initial offering scale of bond funds reached more than 780 billion yuan, accounting for 70.9% of the total issuance of new funds.
UBS SDIC Hejing, which will be launched on January 5, is a secondary bond base, which includes domestic bonds issued and listed in accordance with the law, stocks listed in China according to law, stocks and asset-backed securities under the Hong Kong Stock Connect, interbank certificates of deposit, money market instruments, etc. Among them, the proportion of investment in bond assets shall not be less than 80% of the fund's assets, and the proportion of investment in equity assets, convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds shall not exceed 20% of the fund's assets. It is worth mentioning that the minimum holding period of UBS SDIC Hejing is 180 days, and before the expiration date of the minimum holding period, fund unit holders cannot apply for redemption, and there is no redemption fee for redemption after 180 days.
As an actively managed and aggressive secondary bond base, the role of the fund manager is self-evident. Wang Kan, manager of UBS and King Fund of SDIC, public information shows that Wang Kan has rich experience in credit research, and has served as an assistant researcher in the statistics and econometrics group of the University of Paderborn, Germany, a credit analyst of Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., and a credit analyst of Chinese Asset Management Co., Ltd. Wang Kan joined UBS SDIC Fund Management in August 2016 and is currently the fund manager of a number of bond funds, with a total management scale of more than 6.992 billion yuan (the scale data comes from the fund's regular report, as of September 30, 2023), focusing on risk-adjusted net value growth, controlling volatility and maximum drawdown, and the investment idea is credit bonds as the cornerstone, convertible bonds and stocks are committed to thickening returns, "first invincible, waiting for the enemy to win".
Judging from the past product performance, the products managed by Wang Kan have performed well, representing the excellent performance of the product SDIC UBS in the stable profit increase C multi-stage. According to the data, as of September 30, 2023, UBS SDIC has returned 144.96% since its inception and the performance benchmark is 48.09%. Wang Kan has managed the fund since April 9, 2021, and has performed well in the past year, three years, and five years, ranking in the top 30%, ranking 75/253, 52/200 and 15/125 respectively, and the stage performance and performance benchmark are 2.48%/0.62%, 11.80%/4.54% and 28.07%/7.27% respectively. (Note: The performance, fund stage return, and performance benchmark since the establishment of the fund are derived from the fund's regular report, as of September 30, 2023; the benchmark of the fund's performance is the yield of the China Bond Composite Index; the average of the same kind and the ranking of the same kind are derived from Galaxy Securities, and the statistical interval of the same ranking is the past year (52 weeks), the past three years (156 weeks), and the past five years (260 weeks). The same classification refers to the classification of bond funds - ordinary bond funds - ordinary bond funds (convertible bonds) (non-class A) in the classification of Galaxy Securities. Data as of September 28, 2023. ）
In addition to fund managers, the overall investment ability of the SDIC UBS fixed income team is also quite outstanding. The absolute return rankings of the fixed income funds managed by the company in the past three years, the past five years and the past ten years are 53/130, 44/108 and 3/60 respectively, and the investment ability of three-year, five-year and ten-year bonds has won the five-star rating of Haitong Securities. (Data source: The company's performance and ranking data are from Haitong Securities, ranking time is September 30, 2023; star rating data is from Haitong Securities, rating time is November 1, 2023.) The absolute return of the fund company refers to the growth rate of the net value of the active funds managed by the fund company according to the growth rate of the net value of the assets under management during the period, and the scale of the assets under management during the period is simply averaged according to the scale of the period that can be obtained. ）
Although the bond base in 2023 has just been released intensively and sought after by investors, in the eyes of the industry, the secondary bond base is more suitable for four types of people: first, the pursuit of steady asset growth and can withstand certain fluctuations; second, appropriate participation in the equity market, do not want to miss the equity market, but hesitate in the volatile market, through the secondary bond base small layout; third, the pursuit of asset allocation, the secondary bond base through the return cost performance between stocks and bonds, can achieve the effect of asset allocation; fourth, spare money allocation, some secondary bond bases have a minimum holding period, suitable for short-term funds that do not need to be used, to a certain extent to avoid frequent transactions。
Overall, whether it is based on the judgment of the future market, or the overall investment style and ability of the UBS fixed income team and the fund manager, the UBS SDIC Hejing 180-day holding period bond fund, which was raised on January 5, can be called the preferred choice for investors with a stable style in 2024.
Note: Wang Kan, fund manager, Chinese nationality, master's degree in economics from the University of Paderborn, Germany, 10 years of experience in the securities industry. From January 2012 to September 2012, he served as an assistant researcher in the statistics and econometrics group of the University of Paderborn, Germany, a credit analyst in the financial business department of Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. from December 2012 to September 2014, a credit analyst in the credit evaluation department of Chinese Asset Management Co., Ltd. from September 2014 to July 2016, joined the fixed income department of UBS SDIC Fund Management Co., Ltd. in August 2016, and served as a fund manager assistant of UBS SDIC Optimized Enhanced Bond Securities Investment Fund from December 9, 2019 to October 21, 2020。 Since October 22, 2020, he has served as the fund manager of UBS SDIC Shunheng Pure Bond Bond Securities Investment Fund, since November 7, 2020, he has concurrently served as the fund manager of UBS SDIC Shunchang Pure Bond Bond Securities Investment Fund and UBS SDIC Shunyue 3-month Regular Open Bond Securities Investment Fund, since February 27, 2021, he has concurrently served as the fund manager of UBS SDIC Hetai 6-month Regular Open Bond Originated Securities Investment Fund, and since April 9, 2021, he has concurrently served as the fund manager of SDIC Rui Stable Yield Bond Securities Investment Fund. Since January 12, 2022, he has also served as the fund manager of UBS SDIC Hengyu 90-day holding period short-term bond securities investment fund, and since November 22, 2023, he has also served as the fund manager of UBS SDIC Hengyuan 30-day holding period bond securities investment fund. He served as the fund manager of UBS SDIC Shunjing One-Year Regular Open Bond Securities Investment Fund from September 8, 2021 to July 20, 2023, and the fund manager of UBS Shunrong SDIC Shunrong 39-month Regular Open Bond Securities Investment Fund from February 27, 2021 to August 4, 2023.
Wang Kan's products under management are as follows: SDIC Stable Profit Increase C was established on 2008/01/11, and a new class A share was added on 2023/01/17, Wang Kan served as a manager on 2021/04/09, Cai Weijing served as a manager on 2015/03/03-2021/04/24, and the return on class C shares (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022): 3.06%, 8.60%, 4.91%, 6.83%, 0.45% , performance comparison benchmark for the same period: 4.79%, 1.31%, -0.06%, 2.10%, 0.51%, return on class A share (contract effective to 2023/09/30): 3.46%, performance comparison benchmark for the same period: 1.26%. SDIC Hetai 6-month bond was established on 2017/11/24, Wang Kan served as management on 2021/02/27, Cai Weijing served as 2017/11/24-2021/03/06, Song Lu served as 2019/07/13-2021/03/06, and product yield (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022): 7.84%, 3.93%, 2.21%, 3.94%, 2.53% , the benchmark of performance for the same period: 1.51%, 4.53%, 2.62%, 1.50%, -1.78%. SDIC Shunchang Pure Bond was established on 2018/09/06, Wang Kan served as management on 2020/11/07, Li Dafu served as 2018/09/06-2020/11/13, Xu Dong served as 2018/09/15-2020/11/14, product yield (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022): 3.68%, 2.20%, 3.34%, 1.93%, performance comparison benchmark for the same period: 1.31%, -0.06%, 2.10%、0.51%。 SDIC UBS Shunyue Bond was established on 2019/12/31, Wang Kan served as management on 2020/11/07, Xu Dong's term of office was 2019/12/31-2020/11/14, product yield (2020, 2021, 2022): 5.21%, 3.06%, 0.99%, and performance comparison benchmarks for the same period: -0.06%, 2.10%, and 0.51%. SDIC Shunheng Pure Bond was established on 2020/08/24, Wang Kan served as management on 2020/10/22, Xu Dong served as 2020/08/24-2020/11/14, Li Ou served as 2021/01/09-2022/01/28, product yield (2021, 2022): 2.83%, 1.47%, and performance comparison benchmarks for the same period: 2.10% and 0.51%. UBS SDIC Hengyu A/C was established on 2022/01/12, Wang Kan served as management on 2022/01/12, class A share return (2022): 2.65%, class C share return on the same period: 2.44%, performance benchmark for the same period: 2.28%. SDIC Hengyuan Bond A/C was established on 2023/11/22, and Wang Kan served as the manager on 2023/11/22. The above data is from the Fund's periodic reports. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the product. The overall historical performance of the fixed income fund under the fund manager does not represent the past performance of the specific fund, does not indicate the future performance of the specific fund, and is not used as a guarantee of investment returns.
"Risk Warning Letter
1. The risk level of SDIC UBS Hejing 180-day holding period bond fund is medium and low risk (R2), investors are requested to do a good job of risk assessment and choose products that match the risk level and their own risk tolerance.
2. The above views are for investors' reference only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Dear Investors,
Funds are risky and should be invested with caution. A publicly offered securities investment fund (hereinafter referred to as a "fund") is a long-term investment tool, and its main function is to diversify investments and reduce the individual risks brought about by investing in a single security. Unlike financial instruments such as bank savings that can provide fixed income expectations, when you buy fund products, you may not only share the income generated by the fund's investment according to your holdings, but also bear the losses caused by the fund's investment.
Before you make an investment decision, please carefully read the fund contract, fund prospectus and fund product key facts statement and other product legal documents and this risk disclosure, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of the fund, carefully consider the various risk factors existing in the fund, and fully consider your own risk tolerance according to your own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgments and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions.
In accordance with relevant laws and regulations, UBS SDIC Fund Management Co., Ltd. has made the following risk disclosures:
1. According to the different investment objects, funds are divided into different types such as stock funds, mixed funds, bond funds, money market funds, funds of funds, commodity funds, etc., and you will get different income expectations and bear different degrees of risk when you invest in different types of funds. Generally speaking, the higher the expected return of a fund, the greater the risk you take.
2. The fund may face various risks in the process of investment and operation, including market risks, as well as the fund's own management risks, technical risks and compliance risks. Huge redemption risk is a risk unique to open-end funds, that is, when the net redemption application of a single open-day fund exceeds a certain percentage of the total fund shares (10% for open-end funds, 20% for regular open-ended funds, except for special products specified by the China Securities Regulatory Commission), you may not be able to redeem all the fund shares applied for in a timely manner, or the payment of your redemption may be delayed.
3. You should fully understand the difference between regular fixed investment and lump sum deposit and withdrawal of funds. Regular investment is a simple and easy investment method to guide investors to make long-term investment and average investment costs, but it cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, cannot guarantee investors to obtain returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method to replace savings.
4. Risk disclosure of special types of products:
1. If the product you purchase is a pension target fund, the name of the product "pension" does not represent income protection or any other form of income commitment, and the product is not principal protected and may cause losses. Please read the specific risk disclosure carefully to confirm the product features.
2. If the product you purchase is a money market fund, the purchase of a money market fund does not mean that the funds are deposited in a bank or depository financial institution as a deposit, and the fund manager does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable, nor does it guarantee a minimum return.
3. If the product you purchase is a commodity futures fund, in addition to the general investment risks such as market risk and credit risk, you will also face the risk of investing in futures contracts, the risk of daily mark-to-market, the risk of contract rollover, the risk of term structure, the risk of forced liquidation and other unique risks.
4. If the product you purchase invests in overseas securities, in addition to the general investment risks such as market fluctuation risks similar to those of domestic securities investment funds, the Fund is also exposed to special investment risks faced by overseas securities market investments, such as exchange rate risks.
5. If the product you purchased operates in a regular open mode or the fund contract stipulates a minimum holding period for fund shares, you will face liquidity constraints due to the inability to redeem or sell fund shares during the closed period or minimum holding period.
5. The fund manager undertakes to manage and use the fund assets in good faith, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable, nor does it guarantee the minimum return. Past performance of the Fund and its net worth are not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the Fund Manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the Fund. UBS SDIC Fund Management Co., Ltd. reminds you of the principle of "buyer's responsibility" in fund investment, and after making an investment decision, you shall bear the investment risks caused by changes in the operation status of the fund and the net value of the fund. Fund managers, fund custodians, fund distribution agencies and related institutions do not make any promises or guarantees for the investment returns of the fund.
6. UBS SDIC Hejing 180-day Holding Period Bond Fund (hereinafter referred to as the "Fund") is applied for and raised by UBS SDIC Fund Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the "Fund Manager") in accordance with relevant laws, regulations and agreements, and is licensed and registered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (hereinafter referred to as the "China Securities Regulatory Commission"). The Fund's fund contract, fund prospectus and fund product key facts statement have been publicly disclosed through the CSRC's fund electronic disclosure website: eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund and the fund manager website www.ubssdic.com The registration of the Fund by the CSRC does not indicate that it has made a substantive judgment or guarantee on the investment value, market prospects and returns of the Fund, nor does it indicate that there is no risk in investing in the Fund. "
Source: Caijing.com