Stock Market Diary for January 5, 2024
1. Review of the diary of the previous period and yesterday
On December 26, the diary prompted that all A short-term bottomed out, and once again 100% accurate judgment of the top and bottom. However, whether the short-term bottoming out is transformed into the medium- and long-term bottoming out, we will see after New Year's Day. On the last day of last year, the opening of all A directly broke through 1286, in fact, it has evolved into the bottom of the middle line in advance, but because the amount of energy can be released from a large scale and the amount is greatly reduced, it is still confirmed by the market trend after New Year's Day.
On the first trading day of the New Year's market, the start was red and black, and all A had a good start, but the mainstream index had a black start. The volume can be greatly reduced, barely maintaining above the 800 billion mark, indicating that there is a suspicion of shipment on December 28. As of January 2, all A since December 26 short-term bottoming, the rebound has been four trading days (the so-called short-term is within five trading days), and the four trading days rebounded too fast, the highest point of 1312 on the 2nd, and is about to face the pressure of 1340 above, the short-term bottom is completely accurate, as for whether it can be converted into a medium and long-term bottom, it is necessary to continue to observe on the 3rd, pay close attention to the gains and losses of 1300 and the changes in energy.
The diary on the 3rd shows that the short-term bottoming rebound of all A has been completed, and the short-term has entered the adjustment, and the market outlook is a strong adjustment or a weak adjustment, focusing on two points, 1300 on the 3rd and 1286 last week (the downward trend line after peaking on February 16 last year moved down to 1285 this week). 3-day adjustment of 1300 lost and regained, the amount of energy can be reduced and the weight of the Shanghai market is relatively strong, 1300 lost and regained is still a strong adjustment, 3 days of all A closing yin line entity swallowed up the 2-day yang line, long lower shadow line, if the amount can continue to shrink, 4 days also need to continue to adjust, 1300 points will be repeated, is currently the short-term bottoming out after the completion of the adjustment after the rebound, said above, as for the strong or weak adjustment, 1300 if support, that is a strong adjustment, if it falls below 1300, that is a weak adjustment, continue to pay attention to 1285 this week, if 1285 support rises again, then the middle line upward trend will be formed, that is, the 26-day short-term bottom will be converted into a medium- and long-term bottom.
The diary on the 4th explained that due to the opening of the 4th full A directly fell below 1300, and 1300 has been blocked throughout the day, so there was a weak adjustment, and today's lowest was 1291.758, which also fell below yesterday's low, and the lowest was only 7 points away from 1285 points. Because it is a weak adjustment, and the amount of energy has fallen below 700 billion, such a sluggish amount of energy, 1285 will continue to test today, and pay close attention to the gains and losses of 1285 on the 5th.
Second, the news side
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3. Analysis of today's market trend and market outlook
Today, except for the high opening of the Beijing Stock Exchange 50, other indices opened lower across the board, and the weighted indices opened relatively low, with all A flat openings. After the opening of the whole A, before 10:00 in yesterday's closing point up and down, but after 10:00 with the rapid rise of the banking sector, as long as you continue to pay attention to my diary, it is natural to know what kind of trend the subsequent full A should be, after 10:00 all A Unilateral decline, intraday almost no decent rebound, although the bank has been stagnate after 11:00 and slowly fall, but the trend has become, the bank's fall will only accelerate the fall, so in the afternoon all A began to accelerate the fall, the afternoon opened soon after the direct fall below 1285, continue to accelerate the fall. It was not until 2:44 that the decline was finally stopped, with the largest intraday decline of 2.27% and the lowest of 1268.9, which began to recover, and finally closed down 1.83% at 1274.54. This is an inevitable trend that will pull banks under the downturn. Although it is not absolute, it is 90% of the same, if the volume can exceed more than 900 billion today, it will have no impact, at most it is just a difference between strength and weakness. Other indices fell across the board, with the weighted index falling slightly, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 50, which had the largest decline, fell 0.61%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange naturally fell by 4.02% due to the sharp rise in banks, so the only index among the five major mainstream indexes fell less than 1%. Today, it is mainly small and medium-sized stocks that have fallen sharply across the board. The transaction volume was magnified by 64.2 billion 8.95% today, returning to above the 700 billion mark, and the transaction volume was 754.2 billion. Northbound funds inflowed 1.992 billion against the market. Today is naturally a comprehensive downward market, with only 364 stocks rising during the session. There were 4,759 stocks that closed lower and 506 stocks that rose.
Today's market is both in line with expectations and beyond expectations, in line with expectations is to test 1285 as scheduled today (yesterday's diary explained that today will continue to adjust, pay close attention to 1285 gains and losses, in order to judge whether the market can appear in the medium and long term bottom, both in the medium and long term shock upward market). Although banks rose sharply in the morning, causing all A to fall, they have been maintained above 1285. However, in the afternoon, as the bank fluctuated and fell, all A directly dived below 1285 at the opening and accelerated its decline, once falling 2.27%, which was beyond expectations. Today, the volume is 64.2 billion, and the banking sector is 10.95 billion, indicating that other stocks have a total of 53.25 billion, which is a big fall. All A not only fell below the 1285 trend line in the afternoon, but also fell below the 10-60-120-250 daily moving average in a row, today's a big yin, in one fell swoop at the same time fell below all the moving averages 5-10-20-30-60-120-250 antenna, the morning is considered a short-term bottoming after the adjustment trend (because the morning is maintained above 1285), but the afternoon opened directly below 1285, the nature has changed, is the short-term bottoming rebound after the completion of the start of a new decline in the market. This week's diary has been stating that if the full A1300 or 1285 profit support in the adjustment, then there will be a long-term shock upward trend in the future, but if it falls below 1285, it will naturally not, and if it falls below 1285 points today, it will only be a short-term bottom on the 26th. Yesterday's diary explained that after New Year's Day, the volume will not be increased, but will continue to shrink, perhaps the impact of the general election on January 13. The results will be available next Saturday. At the same time, the situation in the South China Sea has become more gunpowdery, which will inevitably affect the stock market, so don't listen to the nonsense of those so-called fund managers or experts about the bull market, which has always shown that it will be difficult for China's stock market to have a bull market in the future, and the best result is only a local bull market, or a plate bull market. The nature of China's stock market determines that it can only speculate, a unique circle money market, without investment attributes, how can there be a bull market, the total market value was small before, so there will be a bull market under speculation, and now the market value is too large, and a comprehensive bull market is almost impossible. So this year, I proposed to speculate on high-quality stocks with speculative ideas, after all, many high-quality stocks have fallen for three consecutive years, and banks are one of them, but the market value of banks is too large, and small-cap bank stocks such as rural commercial banks and urban commercial banks can speculate, and it is difficult for 6 major banks. The stock selection idea was explained in the diary at the end of last year and will not be repeated.
As for next week's market, the current all-A has been broken, so the 26th is only a short-term bottom, which cannot be converted into a medium- and long-term bottom. Fortunately, today's close finally returned to above the 250 antenna, and finally did not break all the moving averages, which is the only good phenomenon today, and also leaves a thought for the market outlook. Therefore, the focus of next week's market is the gain and loss of the 250 antenna at 1273.3, and the upward is whether it can return to 1285 (in fact, the trend line has moved down to 1284 next week). Next week there will be a chance to reverse 1284, if it can return to the top, then the market still has a chance, on the contrary, all A will find the bottom of the road. Another is that the volume continued to shrink after New Year's Day, but today it fell sharply, so continue to pay attention to the sustainability of the volume. There is also the question of whether the bank is a day trip. If the bank continues to strengthen, if the volume can be enlarged to more than 900 billion, it will be completely unfavorable to all A, which is what I said before, the weight is strong, it can only lead to the weakening of all A. Rocker.
