Reporter: Yang Jian Editor: Peng Shuiping
(1) Important market news
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Nasdaq down 0.56%, the S&P 500 down 0.34%, and the Dow up 0.03%. The Nasdaq 100 fell for the fifth day in a row, its longest since December 2022. Most of the large technology stocks fell, Amazon fell more than 2%, Apple and Google fell more than 1%, Intel, Tesla, and Microsoft fell slightly, and Nvidia and Netflix rose slightly. Quantumscape rose more than 43%, hitting a new high since August last year. Most of the Chinese concept stocks fell, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.43%. Bilibili and Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 3%, Weilai and Alibaba fell more than 2%, Li Auto, Vipshop, and JD.com fell more than 1%, and Pinduoduo and NetEase fell slightly. Tencent Music rose more than 1%, and Baidu and Futu Holdings rose slightly.
The settlement price of international crude oil futures closed slightly lower. WTI crude oil futures for February delivery closed down $0.51, or 0.70%, at $72.19 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for March delivery closed down $0.66, or 0.84%, at $77.59 a barrel. Major European stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the German DAX 30 up 0.48%, the British FTSE 100 up 0.51%, the French CAC 40 up 0.52%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.57%.
(2) Macro news
On January 4, Lan Foan said that in addition to the fiscal revenue, a certain deficit will be arranged in 2024, and a part of the funds will be transferred from the budget stabilization and adjustment fund and other government budgets to ensure that the total fiscal expenditure scale has increased, and better play the role of stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic circulation, forming the necessary support for economic and social development. In addition, Lan Foan said that fiscal policy should support the promotion of consumption, expand investment, stabilize foreign trade, and better coordinate domestic and international circulation. Focusing on the direction of residents' consumption upgrading, we will further study fiscal and taxation policies that encourage and guide consumption, and strive to improve consumption capacity, optimize the consumption environment, and cultivate new types of consumption.
On January 4, 17 departments, including the National Data Bureau, jointly issued the "Data Element ×" Three-Year Action Plan (2024-2026). The Action Plan focuses on promoting the high-level application of data elements, focusing on promoting the collaborative optimization, reuse and efficiency enhancement of data elements, and the role of integration and innovation, strengthening the traction of scenario demand, driving the high-quality supply, compliance and efficient circulation of data elements, cultivating new industries, new models, and new kinetic energy, fully realizing the value of data elements, and providing strong support for promoting high-quality development and promoting Chinese-style modernization. The Action Plan sets out the goals for the work by the end of 2026.
(3) The views of private equity big V
He Jinlong, general manager of Umili Investment: In December, A-shares were mainly volatile and downward, and rebounded in the three trading days at the end of the year. In 2024, the market is exploring industries based on policy support, and the decline in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index will also provide macro conditions for the strengthening of foreign capital inflows, thereby bringing about a year-end rebound. According to historical performance, during the period of policy vacuum and performance vacuum in January and February, the market tends to have a certain amount of restlessness to continue the style. In December, the heavyweight stocks stabilized, and the downside was relatively limited, which brought about an increase in the return/risk value performance of the A-share market. The year's plan lies in the spring, when the Fed's interest rate cut expectations land, the volatility of the market's expectations for it brings opportunities for the decline in US bond yields and the rise in global asset price valuations.
Yi Xiaobin, Equity Investment Director of Shunshi Investment: The two-day rise at the end of last year ignited a little passion for everyone, but the two-day decline at the beginning of 2024 is a blow to the head, investors will inevitably be puzzled, is there any hope for the market that has been continuously volatile and adjusted for three years? Strict or prohibitive policies such as the prohibition of securities lending and borrowing of restricted shares will ease the supply of the market, while the repurchase of listed companies and the entry of long-term funds into the market will increase the supply of funds and provide ammunition for the market to improve; secondly, at the micro level, the profitability of listed companies has improved, and at the macro level, the economic recovery has become stronger, forming a strong support for the market to improve; third, after three consecutive years of market adjustment, the market valuation is at a very low position, and the downward space is very limited. Therefore, under the combined effect of various factors such as capital, economy, and valuation, the time for market strength has come, and the spring offensive is expected to be launched as scheduled.
(4) Industry nuggets
1. On January 4, local time, technology giant Microsoft announced that it would launch the Copilot key for Windows 11 PC. Press this key to invoke the AI assistant Copilot, which can answer the user's questions, help the user draw pictures, write emails, summarize texts, and more. Microsoft hopes the move will allow AI to seamlessly participate in users' daily lives. Microsoft will reveal more about this at the Consumer Electronics Show, which starts on January 9. In addition, Nvidia plans to deliver 14 presentations at this year's CES, focusing on technologies such as AI. AMD will discuss the future of artificial intelligence (AI PC) for personal computers at CES, and AIPC is expected to accelerate its penetration as tech giants deploy in advance, and 2024 is expected to usher in the first year of AI PC. A computing load will sink to the edge side and the end side will be the general trend, and the PC may become the first terminal for the inclusion of personal large models. Concept stocks include Transwarp, Everbright Tongchuang, etc.
2. The Ministry of Emergency Management and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued guidance on accelerating the development of emergency robots, with the goal of developing a number of advanced emergency robots by 2025 to greatly improve the scientific, professional, refined and intelligent level; Build a number of emergency robot combat testing and demonstration application bases in key scenarios, and gradually improve the development ecosystem; The deployment of emergency robots has been continuously enhanced, the equipment system has been basically constructed, and the actual combat application and support level have been comprehensively improved. At present, industrial robots have been widely used in industrial scenarios such as palletizing, stamping and welding, cutting, spraying, and loading and unloading, greatly improving production efficiency. In 2022, the market size of industrial robots in China will be 8.7 billion US dollars, of which the growth of large-scale multi-joint and collaborative robots will accelerate significantly, and the market size of China's industrial robot ontology industry will reach 840.4 billion yuan by 2025. Concept stocks include Green Harmonic, Topstar, Boshi shares, etc.
3. The National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and other departments recently issued implementation opinions on strengthening the integration and interaction of new energy vehicles and power grids, with the goal of 2025, the initial completion of the continental vehicle network interactive technical standard system, and strive to participate in the pilot demonstration of more than 60% of the annual charging power of the city in 2025, concentrated in the trough period of private charging pile charging 80% Compared with ordinary DC one-way charging piles, the two-way charging and discharging technology requires V2G charging modules. V2G technology is based on information technology and power conversion technology, electric vehicles can not only obtain energy from the grid to charge the power battery, but also feed back the energy of the power battery to the power grid. The manufacturing of V2G charging modules is complex, and the unit value is significantly higher than that of the current mainstream one-way charging modules, and charging module companies are expected to open up new incremental space. Concept stocks include Shenghong shares, Zhongheng Electric, Juhua Technology, etc.
National Business Daily