The new year is a new beginning for many, a time of hope and opportunity. However, for India, not only did it fail to win this good prize, but it also suffered a double blow one after another.
As the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) is about to be held, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as this year's host country, has been preparing for the summit as another stage to showcase India's influence. But as the old saying goes, plans can't keep up with change. Now there is less than a month left before the summit, but there was an accident on the US side, Biden refused the invitation of the Indian side on the grounds that he wanted to prepare for the election, and rejected Modi's face.
As a result, all preparations in India had to be put on hold and the summit date had to be rescheduled, much to Modi's displeasure. You know, in order to allow Biden to come to the meeting, Modi began to pave the way for a long time. In May last year, Modi took advantage of the G7 summit in Hiroshima to make a special mention of it. When the G20 summit was held in September, Modi officially sent out an invitation to Biden to attend the military parade in India together, making him the third US president in nearly 10 years to "have this honor".
(Prime Minister Modi)
Compared to the United States, Australia and Japan have been very positive, saying that although the timing of the summit is uncertain, they still have high expectations. It is worth mentioning that this is Biden's second "missed appointment". The last QUAD summit was scheduled to be held in Sydney in May last year, but Biden was held back by the long-delayed negotiations on the domestic debt ceiling and eventually canceled the trip at the last minute. Such an absence for two consecutive years is an unusual signal.
As we all know, the purpose of the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" mechanism established by the United States, Japan, India and Australia is to create a small circle against China and compete with China for influence in the so-called "Indo-Pacific" region. In this mechanism, India has played a mainstay role, and now Biden has "missed the appointment" again, which will inevitably make Modi's heart start to beat the drum, making the already unstable US-India relationship even more shaky.
Moreover, although Biden's reason for India is to prepare for the general election, some media reported that the real reason is that India's previous handling of the assassination of Sikhs was dissatisfied with the United States by "rubbing the entire West on the ground", which caused the current situation. But in any case, the negative impact of this incident on India's international image and status is irreversible.
[Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar]
The so-called house leak happened to rain overnight, and this is not the only thing that makes India sad. As we all know, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has made a lot of money by importing Russian oil from the bottom. So this year, India wants to continue to take advantage. But the problem at the moment is that because of the instability of the rupee exchange rate and the inability to spend it, Russia has rejected a request to continue trading with India in rupees.
As a result, six tankers carrying Sokol-class crude oil are now unable to be delivered due to payment issues, causing India's crude imports from Russia to plummet. India's crude imports from Russia rose to an all-time high of 2.15 million barrels per day in May last year, before falling sharply from November to December to 1.48 million barrels per day last month, according to publicly available data.
According to Indian refiners, they received an average of 140,000 barrels of Sokol oil per day last year, but by December, they had received none. Because India was unable to pay, the six tankers had to return the same route, and two said they might be diverted to China. That is to say, if India insists on trading in rupees, it may not be able to buy a drop of oil this year, and it is true that Russia has a demand for export oil, but it does not want to exchange it for "a pile of waste paper".
Therefore, if India wants to continue to do business with Russia, there are only two options, either trade in rubles or in yuan, and the rupee settlement is already at the end of the day anyway. But for India, it must be the renminbi first. Because compared with the ruble, the renminbi has a higher international status and influence, a more stable exchange rate and stronger purchasing power, and a wider international circulation and acceptance. On top of that, China has become India's largest source of trade deficit, and it is not worried that it will not be able to spend its renminbi.
(Vivo Inc. in India)
But this is only possible if India has enough renminbi to support such a huge oil trade with Russia. This requires India to earn the renminbi by exporting goods or services, or attracting foreign investment. However, in recent times, India has repeatedly pursued and blocked Chinese companies, and even directly arrested three senior officials of Chinese companies, casting a shadow on the investment and trade between China and India.
At the beginning, India's attitude was very tough, and after arresting our people, they went straight to trial, and delivered confidential letters to the prosecutor on the spot, preparing to operate in the dark. However, after being rejected by the United States and blocked from buying Russian oil, the Indian side changed its story, believing that the arrest was invalid and released the three senior executives of the Chinese company, but on the condition that they were not allowed to leave India, and their passports were confiscated. Although this matter has not yet come to an end, it is not difficult to see that India has taken a step back.
Through this incident, it can be reflected that the RMB has been recognized by more and more countries in terms of trade settlement and liquidity, especially under the promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the RMB has initially opened up Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia, South America and other regions, and the internationalization process of the RMB will be further accelerated. But if India wants to attract more Chinese companies to invest in India, it must create a fair and open market. In the case of a series of double blows, whether to continue to hold these three Chinese executives accountable, India must think clearly, and don't end up offending everyone.