Which industry is more miserable in 2023, real estate companies say second, it is estimated that no one dares to say the first easily, it is estimated that everyone has never seen any industry at the same time to see so many companies at the same time default, thunderstorms, the key is from the head to the waist and even to many small real estate companies are thunderstorms, if a thunderstorm has a problem, you can say that people are not well managed, but everyone is holding hands with thunderstorms, it can only be said that the general environment has suffered Waterloo, look at the performance of the top 100 real estate companies this year, everyone's hearts are clearer.
On December 31, according to a report by the Financial Associated Press, data statistics from the China Index Research Institute show that the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in 2023 will be 6.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%, many people may think that this proportion is not too large, but what will happen in 2022, you may forget that the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 6.46 trillion yuan last year, a decrease of 41.6% from 2021 It is obvious how sad the life of real estate companies is, everyone has seen it, sales is the dignity of real estate companies, now the sales volume is cut in half, the executives are disgraced, and the employee bonuses are hopeless, everyone is worried about when they will be laid off by real estate companies and reduce their salaries, and residents will not dare to buy houses.
Not only is the total cake smaller, but the scale of real estate companies has also declined, and there are only 16 real estate companies with sales of more than 100 billion yuan in 2023, 4 fewer than in 2022, and 116 real estate companies with tens of billions of yuan, 14 fewer than in 2022.
According to Kerry's statistics, as of December 25, the construction area of land transactions in 300 cities across the country was 1.28 billion square meters, a decrease of 20% compared with the same period in 2022, and the total transaction amount refreshed a new low in the past ten years. Nanjing and other cities in December are zero premium, because although the price limit for land auctions has been relaxed, but developers do not seem to pay much, and now they still rely on state-owned enterprises to create an atmosphere to attract everyone's attention.
Just like last Friday, Guangzhou auctioned 75,600 square meters of land king on the last day of the working day, directly surpassing Beijing to become the national land king, but the people who came to get the land are also all state-owned enterprises, private real estate companies did not even sign up, it is estimated that they have to pay a deposit and do not want to spend this energy to accompany them, so it can be seen that now it is the local government to coax real estate companies to take the land, without leaving enough profits or good conditions, it is difficult for private real estate companies to shoot, so many places of real estate enterprises may become a swan song, once the development of the stock of land, the basic will not take the land to develop later, everyone must also identify this kind of real estateTherefore, most of the private enterprises that are still taking land are small and medium-sized private real estate enterprises, and they have not added too much leverage before, and they have increased some investment in some areas, and most of the leading private real estate enterprises are fighting fires in the backyard.
And at the beginning of the New Year, 18 real estate tycoons also spoke out, such as Mo Bin, president of Country Garden, said that although market confidence has yet to be restored, they will actively break through the predicament. Lin Zhong, chairman of CIFI's board of directors, said that 2024 is not destined to be easy, and they will do their best to sprint to the delivery target of 80,000 new homes, find ways to solve the problems left over from history, shrink the balance sheet, break the business situation, and make every effort to solve the debt problem. Shan Weibiao, chairman of Road King Group, said that the painful period of the industry is still there, and a cruel reality is: in the process of clearing risks and shrinking the balance sheet, enterprises have to fight a battle of life and death, staying on the battlefield is more important than anything else, the cycle is the fate that real estate companies have to face, and focus is the last choice. Other bosses of state-owned enterprises said similarly, they all know that the industry will be more difficult, but they will choose to enter despite the difficulties.
But now, the local dependence on land finance has not fundamentally changed, and many places will now hold a land auction meeting before the land auction, first find out with everyone to see which real estate companies are willing to take the land, which plots are no one cares, if no one has the intention to directly withdraw, the province will be released and lose face. However, the previous high-level has set the tone, not to reserve land through debt, not to increase land transfer income through state-owned enterprises to purchase land, etc., but this year, the proportion of state-owned enterprises to take land is 40%, an increase of 21% over last year, and the amount of local urban investment land has dropped from 61% last year to 44%, but the overall is still at a leading low level, and private real estate enterprises only account for 16% Now, the hidden debt of Chengtou has always been the sword of Damox hanging in many places, so it is normal for Chengtou to gradually reduce the land in the future, otherwise this land auction is still a game of left hand for right hand, if the starting price starts at one yuan, the land in many places may not be sold for 3,000 yuan per square meter, because the local government does not have the courage to do so.
Therefore, for the preliminary judgment of this year's situation, the area of new construction will still maintain the degree of decline, because the most important task of real estate enterprises is the return of funds, and the new projects will increase short-term costs. From January to November this year, the completed area of 650 million square meters of housing, of course, local differentiation is still relatively obvious, some cities are still unfinished, and some cities are relatively better, and there are not so many unfinished buildings.
The second is that the second-hand housing will continue to rise, which we have also talked about before, who is selling the house now, on the one hand, the stock of state-owned housing, on the other hand, the new housing of real estate enterprises, On the other hand, there are speculative tenants and ordinary owners, these four types of people are the first to ship Chinese-funded stock houses, and they are generally sold in the form of second-hand or auctions, because these houses have the confidence to reduce prices, and there is no risk of unfinished, and even many of them are rough houses, buyers can move in directly according to their own ideas after decoration, which is relatively difficult to meet in ordinary second-hand houses. The new houses of real estate companies are the second priority, and of course, they are also shipped through new houses. For speculators, it is now a dilemma, a big price reduction will lose a lot, and if the price is not reduced, it will face the risk of high interest or even supply interruption.
Just like we said before, an owner of Songshan Lake in Dongguan, bought a second house for 6 million, and now he can't sell it for 2.8 million, and he faces the risk of bank recovery after half a year, and even affects his own first suite. Finally, there are ordinary owners of a suite, they are not particularly anxious now, and even a little bit of a melon-eating mentality, because anyway, as long as the job is still there, the monthly payment is not a particularly big problem, because they bought it within their own ability when they bought the house, so as long as they do not charge real estate tax, they will not act rashly for the time being, just watch the situation silently.
Of course, there are more people who do not have houses, and they are more normal about the current situation, because interest rates are still falling, new houses will also reduce prices to engage in activities, and second-hand owners will cut off the supply tide, this news is like a dream, it is unimaginable when the property market rises in the past, and people who have not bought houses in the past two years have saved themselves hundreds of thousands, of course, housing prices in some cities may also rise again in the future, but at least for now, the rescue policy will continue to be introduced. If the purchase restrictions in the suburbs are not released, we can just continue to watch, and whoever is in a hurry will be even more humble.
