The growth rate fell to 5.05%, the most growing country in Asia, turned off?
Is Asia's most fastest-growing economy also extinguishing its flames?
According to data released by Vietnam, GDP is expected to grow by 5.05% year-on-year in 2023, missing the previous growth target of 6.5%. In 2022, Vietnam's economic growth rate will be as high as 8.05%, ranking first among major Asian economies.
Some people may think that the growth rate of 5% is not low, but this is the lowest growth rate in Vietnam since 2000, excluding the epidemic in 2020 and 2021.
The main reason for Vietnam's economic stall is weak external demand, imitating China and intending to become the next world factory, Vietnam, which is highly dependent on foreign trade, with an export dependence of 90%.
Vietnam's exports fell by 4.4% year-on-year in 2023, with exports to the largest exporter, the United States, falling by 12.4% year-on-year, and exports to the European Union also falling by 6.7%.
In the context of such weak external demand, Vietnam's economic growth rate can still reach 5.05%, which is already a very good result.
From the first quarter to the fourth quarter, Vietnam's economic growth rate was 3.41%, 4.25%, 5.47%, and 6.72% respectively, showing an upward trend.
The main reason is that Vietnam has made efforts in investment and consumption, with the investment amount reaching VND 3,423.5 trillion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%.
Vietnam is also engaged in infrastructure construction, with a new record of 475 kilometers of expressways opened to traffic in 2023. In terms of railways, we will study and promote the construction of the Lao Cai-Hanoi-Haiphong standard gauge railway in Vietnam.
Tourism spending has also soared, with the number of international tourists received in 2023 reaching 12.6 million, 3.4 times that of 2022.
Does Vietnam's economic stall mean that this myth of Asian growth is about to be shattered? In fact, Vietnam is very much like the Pearl River Delta more than 20 years ago, with labor-intensive industries as the main industry, but it is growing rapidly.
Vietnam's largest exporter is the United States, while its largest importer is China, so it has gradually become an important venue for the great power game. However, Vietnam has engaged in "bamboo diplomacy" and has turned enemies into friends with all countries. Instead of becoming a victim of the game, he became a beneficiary.
In 2023, the leaders of China and the United States will visit Vietnam one after another, and the US-Vietnam relationship will be upgraded from a "comprehensive partnership" to a "comprehensive strategic partnership", and China-Vietnam relations will also be upgraded from a "comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership" to "building a community with a shared future of strategic significance".
At present, Vietnam is ushering in unprecedented development opportunities, on the one hand, it has a demographic dividend, with a population of more than 100 million in 2023, reaching 103 million, becoming the 15th country in the world with a population of more than 100 million. Among them, the number of Vietnam's labor force aged 15 and above expanded to 52.4 million, accounting for more than half of the total population. Moreover, the adult literacy rate in Vietnam is over 90%.
The average monthly wage in Vietnam in 2023 is VND 8.49 million, and after conversion, the average monthly wage is 2,480 yuan. In 2022, the average monthly wage of employees in urban private units in mainland China will be 5,436 yuan, more than twice that of Vietnam.
On the other hand, in the context of the "de-sinicization of supply chains" led by the United States and Europe, a large amount of foreign investment has poured into Vietnam. Vietnam has become the world's largest manufacturing base for Samsung mobile phones, Apple has also gone, and Nvidia has also gone. Not only American, European, Japanese and South Korean companies, but also many Chinese companies have invested in Vietnam, such as BYD, Xiaomi, Luxshare Precision and so on.
In 2023, the total value of foreign investment contracts in Vietnam will reach US$366 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%, while the actual utilization of foreign capital will be US$23.18 billion, an increase of 3.5%, a new high in the past five years.
With a growth rate of 5.05%, Vietnam's GDP will rise to US$430 billion in 2023, and its per capita GDP will increase to US$4,284. Vietnam's goal is to become a developed country by 2045, that is, a per capita GDP of more than 20,000 US dollars, although it is not easy, but a deep imitation of China, pragmatic and enterprising, left and right Vietnam, is indeed running towards the goal at a high speed.